Huh! Just to see if anyone still checks in here, what do you guys think of this: Note that major interest rate peaks seem to happen around 4-5 years apart, as do major bottoms. Note also that the last two cycles the trip upward has been pretty fast (rate bottom to rate top in a year or so). Looking at the longer-term interest-rate trend, there is oddly enough some chart case to be made for the fact that we are nearing the top of the interest rate cycle. That said, the 20+ year bull market in bonds is getting very long in the tooth, and sooner or later that long-term downward rate trend must break. But it's an interesting near-term possibility that could take the 30-year yield below 4%.