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Stock Market - latest trends

Started by pkamm, 05/08/2003 09:25AM
Posted 05/08/2003 09:25AM Opening Post
This is a slightly expanded version of the post I put on the OT forum.

In case any of my fellow astronomers find charts interesting, I personally find trend analysis interesting (this is a highly complex form of analysis that can be done by anyone who can draw a straight line with a ruler).

The nasdaq just bumped off the top of its 3-year-long downtrend channel on the logarithmic scale. If it gets to a new high at all from this point, it could mark the end of the bear market on a trend-channel basis. If it fails, well...

Looking at the S&P500, things are looking similar but not quite identical. The S&P hasn't reached the top of its downtrend channel, but it's getting there...

Attached Image:

pkamm's attachment for post 5791
Posted 05/08/2003 10:32AM #1
I have been warning the family about paper money for 3 years now...... One member of the family has lost over 150K in stock value since he was first warned by me to pull out the principles and 2/3rds of the net profit. His stock was diversified by Dean Whitter(sp?)& thugs Inc.

Everything we have is in CD's & Fed. Insured deposits. 'Don't make much....but don't lose much either. (cents only make cents).

I expect a serious market crash is I wrong?.
Posted 05/08/2003 05:31PM #2
Very cool group. I have been investing for 30 years, 42 years old. The best stock market advice is pretty simple:
Over the last 100 years the market has returned about 5% over long bond rates. Simple add the 5% risk premium to the long term bond rate and voila that is about the return. Buffet has said this time and again. Gotta follow a guy who produces 24% CAGR.

No silly 23% a year.....

Great charts BTW. I would have considered the "slight" penetration of the downtrend line to be a QQQ buyer.

Also well respected market timer Bob Brinker got bullish after three years on March 11.

thanks guys my 2 cents
Posted 05/08/2003 05:35PM #3
Depends what you bought. If they are hi quality companies that you just paid a bit too much for, stick and stay its bound to pay.
The bonds are safer sorta, best to mix up your money. 60/40 or so.
Posted 05/08/2003 07:18PM #4
That is good. I have that same plan. Mine is called the McDonalds plan but I changed it to Starbucks: being able to live our lifestyle and only need to work at a Starbucks. ;-]
Whaddayathink Herb?
Posted 05/08/2003 08:11PM #5
'Trusted the "it will turn around quickly" thought!'

Don't feel bad Bill, you have plenty of company. Historically spectacular bull and bear moves can't occur without sucking in most of the population that has the means to invest. And just look at the swings on the way down. It would be hard to come up with a pattern that could more maximize the pain and make sure that so few escaped harm.

I bailed out of the market when things started going south in a big way back in March 2000. So I was one of the 'chicken' investors, LOL! Have periodically dipped my toe in from time to time since then. Have more managed to just not lose lots of money than actually make any sort of return, and I'm plenty happy with that result given the carnage that has taken place everywhere else.