Posts Made By: Robert Pasken

October 13, 2008 01:28 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Model verification against observations

Posted By Robert Pasken

From a paper by Santer et. al. 2008

Using state-of-the-art observational datasets and results from a large
archive of computer model simulations, a consortium of scientists from 12
different institutions has resolved a long-standing conundrum in climate
science – the apparent discrepancy between simulated and observed
temperature trends in the tropics. Research published by this group
indicates that there is no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and
observed tropical temperature trends when one accounts for: 1) the
(currently large) uncertainties in observations; 2) the statistical
uncertainties in estimating trends from observations. These results refute
a recent claim that model and observed tropical temperature trends
“disagree to a statistically significant extent”. This claim was based on the
application of a flawed statistical test and the use of older observational
datasets.


November 3, 2008 04:49 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Climate debate

Posted By Robert Pasken

The last few interchanges have been informative and what interest in science and global warming should be like. I'd like to give an "atta boy" to Andreas, Judson and Jason

November 4, 2008 03:20 AM Forum: Politics

Our long nightmare is over

Posted By Robert Pasken

On January 17, 2001 The Onion published a piece called Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over'

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784

Worth a read Some of the highlights

"My fellow Americans," Bush said, "at long last, we have reached the end of the dark period in American history that will come to be known as the Clinton Era, eight long years characterized by unprecedented economic expansion, a sharp decrease in crime, and sustained peace overseas. The time has come to put all of that behind us."

During the 40-minute speech, Bush also promised to bring an end to the severe war drought that plagued the nation under Clinton, assuring citizens that the U.S. will engage in at least one Gulf War-level armed conflict in the next four years.

On the economic side, Bush vowed to bring back economic stagnation by implementing substantial tax cuts, which would lead to a recession, which would necessitate a tax hike, which would lead to a drop in consumer spending, which would lead to layoffs, which would deepen the recession even further.

Finally, the horrific misrule of the Democrats has been brought to a close," House Majority Leader Dennis Hastert (R-IL) told reporters. "Under Bush, we can all look forward to military aggression, deregulation of dangerous, greedy industries, and the defunding of vital domestic social-service programs upon which millions depend. Mercifully, we can now say goodbye to the awful nightmare that was Clinton's America."

"For years, I tirelessly preached the message that Clinton must be stopped," conservative talk-radio host Rush Limbaugh said. "And yet, in 1996, the American public failed to heed my urgent warnings, re-electing Clinton despite the fact that the nation was prosperous and at peace under his regime. But now, thank God, that's all done with. Once again, we will enjoy mounting debt, jingoism, nuclear paranoia, mass deficit, and a massive military build-up."





November 12, 2008 04:45 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

More looney tunes from wattsupwiththat

Posted By Robert Pasken

A curious thing just happened. The Russians made a mistake by sending September temperatures as October tmperatures, giving an erroneous positive anomaly. NOAA and GISS caught the error and within 24 hours had the correct data in place. The good thing is that with many eyes checking the data it is easy to catch the problem. The same thing occurred with the UAH MSU-LT data, which had yet another major set of problems, but the problem with UAH MSU-LT data was quickly caught and corrected. This is good science at work. Every one involved should be justifiably proud of the work they did.

The curious thing is the posts on wattsupwiththat.com. First a few FACTS, GISS only puts out press releases on the temperature analysis at the end of the year, however, Watts proudly proclaims that GISS sent out a press release "declaring the October the 'warmest ever'". Once again GISS only puts out press releases on the temperature analysis at the end of the year. Watts further claims "I believe they had two sets of data: One would be released if Republicans won, and another if Democrats won.", "could this be a sneaky way to set up the BO presidency with an urgent need to regulate CO2?", "There are a great many of us who will under no circumstance allow the oppression of government rule to pervade over our freedom—-PERIOD!!!!!!" (exclamation marks reduced enormously), "these people are blinded by their own bias", "this sort of scientific fraud", "Climate science on the warmer side has degenerated to competitive lying", etc…

You wonder why as a scientist I consider Watts, who never was anything more than a TV personality, to be a fraud and liar.

November 14, 2008 03:35 AM Forum: Politics

Re: Rambling assessment and questions

Posted By Robert Pasken

Two things Jim grin

The first is you seem to have recovered enough to join the fray again grin grin grin Welcome back

The second is that I agree with almost everything you have said, but I would emphasize some things slightly differently.

MO the government throwing cash at the mega businesses is the same as flushing it down the toilet. Actually it is much worse as it encourages and rewards those who created the problem in the first place. The bail should have never happened.

I think you're right about the economy being funded by debt. There are far too few conservatives, i.e., those who conserve the resource they have access to and treasure tradition.. Were there more people who saved to buy the things they wanted, we wouldn't be in this mess.

Yes well meaning people wanted more people to own their own home, however that concept got twisted into people buying MacMansions. 25 year olds who have just graduated from college shouldn't be buying $500k houses with 0% down and a interest only loan. On the other hand allowing the Policeman/teacher husband/wife pair buy their first house after working for 10 years with only 10% down is a good idea. It was the greedy mortgage broker who distorted the concept into what it has become.

The climate issue is where I disagree. The scientific community has been warning people for more than twenty years that bad things were happening and we should be making changes in how we were pushing CO2 into the air. The Montreal protocols for CFC's were suggested as framework for altering CO2 emissions. The problem was that a, to use your words "card carrying right wing nut case politician took up the banner" did exactly that. In point of fact there are lots of right wing nut case politician who have picked up the banner nearly as long ago as the scientific community started warning the people of potential problems. Inhofe is the poster boy. Rick Santorum is yet another. Gore is a complete newcomer to the dance.

December 2, 2008 12:40 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Re: Out of gas

Posted By Robert Pasken

I guess you walk to the nearest filling station and get a cylinder of LNG or Hydrogen. Although more combustible than gasoline the cylinders of LNG and Hydrogen are a bit more sturdy than cheap plastic gas cans I see people filling in the trunk of their cars at gas stations. With electric you tap the nearest light pole.

January 6, 2009 05:24 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Inhofe at it again

Posted By Robert Pasken

Seems that Inhofe's staffer Marc Morano seems to think that if tells a big enough lie often enough people will believe the lie. THis time Marc Morano mischaracterized Anja Eichler research with a blaring headline, “Study: Half of warming due to Sun!” Far from supporting Inhofe’s denialist fantasies, the research, led by Anja Eichler, Senior Scientist at the Switzerland’s Paul Scherrer Institute, is actually one more piece of observation-driven analysis that strongly backs the reality of human-caused warming. On Inhofe's Senate website Inhofe staffer Marc Morano not only misstated her results but also concluded:

Even if you try to stretch these numbers a little bit — but not unrealistically —
you have to become sure that the participants of the Poznan conference are
lunatics.

Once again Inhofe is willing do anything to keep getting feeding at the oil and gas company trough

January 15, 2009 05:53 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

AMS meeting in Arizona

Posted By Robert Pasken

The American Meteorological Society awarded the country’s top climate scientist its highest honor, the 2009 Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal:

For outstanding contributions to climate modeling, understanding climate change forcings and sensitivity, and for clear communication of climate science in the public arena.


January 25, 2009 03:37 AM Forum: Politics

Re: Great article

Posted By Robert Pasken

Just so long as you stick to facts rather than making stuff up like your message

January 30, 2009 02:30 AM Forum: Politics

An accurate description

Posted By Robert Pasken

Here's an accurate description