Model verification against observationsPosted By Robert Pasken |
From a paper by Santer et. al. 2008
Using state-of-the-art observational datasets and results from a large
archive of computer model simulations, a consortium of scientists from 12
different institutions has resolved a long-standing conundrum in climate
science – the apparent discrepancy between simulated and observed
temperature trends in the tropics. Research published by this group
indicates that there is no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and
observed tropical temperature trends when one accounts for: 1) the
(currently large) uncertainties in observations; 2) the statistical
uncertainties in estimating trends from observations. These results refute
a recent claim that model and observed tropical temperature trends
“disagree to a statistically significant extent”. This claim was based on the
application of a flawed statistical test and the use of older observational
datasets.
Using state-of-the-art observational datasets and results from a large
archive of computer model simulations, a consortium of scientists from 12
different institutions has resolved a long-standing conundrum in climate
science – the apparent discrepancy between simulated and observed
temperature trends in the tropics. Research published by this group
indicates that there is no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and
observed tropical temperature trends when one accounts for: 1) the
(currently large) uncertainties in observations; 2) the statistical
uncertainties in estimating trends from observations. These results refute
a recent claim that model and observed tropical temperature trends
“disagree to a statistically significant extent”. This claim was based on the
application of a flawed statistical test and the use of older observational
datasets.