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Posts Made By: James Brown

April 10, 2020 03:39 AM Forum: Politics

Enjoying The View...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

it will be another Blowout by Trump. 
Another blowout?  Yikes, it seemed pretty close to me, a handful of Midwestern states won by a handful of votes...

Here's a good analogy.  Imagine the Rockies and the Sox are in the 2022 World Series.  The Sox win three games by the scores 11-1, 14-0, and 16-2.  The Rockies win four games, 3-2, 4-3, 1-0, and 2-1.  Yay! Rockies win!! 

The Rockies win the Series by winning 57% of the games!  Yay!  But seriously, under these circumstances, and with those scores, would anyone in their right mind call this a "blowout" Series win?  I doubt it, not even you.

By the by, DJT won 57% of the Electoral College vote! 

Jim

April 10, 2020 04:55 AM Forum: Politics

Enjoying The View...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Hi Rod,

One problem with national polls is that the election is the result really depends on 2 things, turnout and results in battleground states.  Now that Sanders has dropped out, hopefully they will start more battleground state polling.

The other thing to keep an eye on is the senate. From what we have seen these past few years, that is where the real power lies.  From what I have been reading, it seems that the Democratic party has an outside chance of getting a majority there, but only if everything goes their way.  More likely is the Republican party holding on.  Will just have to see what happens.

Going to be an "interesting" next few months!

Cheers,

Maurice
Hi Maurice:

Agreed.  I think the very cool 538 presidential approval tracker sheds some insight.  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
Check out the annotated screen capture below.  Trump's approval rating is the green trace.  Trump has been consistently unpopular throughout his term.  Even so, George Bush and Barack Obama were just about at the same level of unpopularity at this point in their first terms.  Yet both W and Obama won relatively close re-election races.  Note how the popularity of W and Obama both rose between this point in their respective 1st terms and election day.  Compare that with the charts for Carter and H.W. Bush, the only two recent presidents to lose re-election bids.  Both of those presidents saw their popularity plummet in the final year of their first and only term.

If Trump sneaks up to about 50% popularity over the next several months, I'd expect him to win a close one.  This can probably only happen if we recover quickly from the pandemic and the economy gets going again.

On the other hand, if Trump's popularity craters like Carter and H.W. Bush did before their second election, I would expect Trump to lose bigly.  Obviously, there are a lot of factors at play, including how well Biden campaigns.  Check out Reagan in 1984.  He was very unpopular at his first midterm, it was "Trump-like."  But Reagan crushed his second election.  Mondale had a lot to do with that.  1984 Rich, was a "blow-out." 

It is still very early, and so much depends on the recovery, the economy, and Biden.

Jim 

April 10, 2020 10:38 PM Forum: Politics

How to make a face mask if you don't sew. A public service.

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Man I thought I was balding!  LOL.  

I Like your haircut better though.  I'm ready to take scissors to my head!

Very nice work by your mom.

And Dave's mask instructions are very good.  I just wonder with all those layers he made, how hard is it to breathe in that thing.

Your's looks to be a little thinner material, so not so uncomfortable. 

In all honesty with the convertible, I don't think you need the mask IN the car!  wink

Nice work though.  

Here's to all our continued health!  grin
I'm really not that bald in real life - it was the harsh lighting, and I am very grey!  wink

My wife has been cutting my hair with a clipper for years, every three weeks:  #4 on the top, #3 on the sides, #2 around the edges.  So, no worries for me while the barbers are closed, also, I've probably saved millions in barber fees!

Jim

April 10, 2020 10:51 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

More decent news on the statistics front.  The US infection rate has been linear at about 32.5 k new cases per day since April 3 or so.  No more exponential growth Rich, unless we have a significant second wave, which I think we can avoid.  The thing to look for next is a steady decline in the new cases per day rate until we reach a flat and hopefully sustainable low number like Korea.  Of course this "acceptable rate" has to be maintained along with a well planned and well executed re-opening of the economy to qualify as really good news.

Jim

April 11, 2020 02:09 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/?fbclid=IwAR3C19wPUgQKjAVXqEwN_kGELRx3t4_XbbCHOpAgaHJdiKORHptPGTnNFtI


For all that said this is "just the flu"
Wow.

April 11, 2020 04:06 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

What is Wow about that??

Is there a point to the graph?
Seriously?  A new viral respiratory illness shows up that is, right now, the number one killer in the US and you don't think that justifies a wow?  Hell, the beauty of that animated bar graph as a communications tool justifies a wow by itself!   Also, Covid-19 is killing more than any other cause even though we as a society have made great progress at minimizing it's transmission, as all those significantly more boring graphs I've been posting demonstrate. 

Double wow. 

Of course the crisis will pass and hopefully relatively soon.  But I can't imagine anyone not being blown away by that animated bar graph.  You must just be trolling.

Jim

April 11, 2020 06:56 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Any answer at all to that?  
You have now posted three lengthy and rambling replies to a single one of my posts.  Is that a record?  The answer to many of your questions is in the graphs I have posted.  The Covid-19 death rate is shocking with social mitigation in place.  I am confident, based upon a lot of reading of real science, that it would be much worse absent mitigation. 

I will try to answer most of your questions reasonably succinctly.  It is a challenge to do so, and we will see if I am up to the task.  I do not intend to answer piecemeal.  You have laced dozens of repetitive questions in your three long posts.  I know in advance that you will accept none of this.  I am writing for myself, and for others.  I do not want anyone to question my sanity, given that replying to you is well known to be pointless.

With that preamble:

(A)  Of course I am bothered by the rise in suicides, violence, economic hardship, lost jobs, permanent business closures and so on.  All of this bad stuff arises because of the business closures and stay at home orders.  But, those business closures and stay at home orders are also the difference between exponential growth of the pandemic over a much longer time frame resulting in countless more deaths, plus collapse of the healthcare system, and much direct social hardship.   You like to compare the current social and economic hardships to the modest death rate we are seeing after successful mitigation.  That is the wrong comparison.  If we had allowed nature to run it's course, the death rate would currently be skyrocketing, the health care system would be overburdened to the point of collapse, and we would be looking at suicides, economic hardship, lost jobs, shuttered business and social unraveling because of the unchecked disease. 

I believe that the rate of suicides, economic hardship, lost jobs, permanent business closures and so on would have been much worse if we had let nature run it's course.  So, I think the closures and so on cause by our social response are of net benefit to society compared to the alternative - in short "worth it."

This is a balancing act though.  If we were to stay closed as a nation for the rest of the year, I think that the suicides, economic hardship, lost jobs, permanent business closures and so on might not be worth it.  That is why I am glad smart people are thinking about how to best emerge from the current situation. 

(B) Florida has more recently implemented the mitigation steps earlier implemented by New York.  Timing is everything.  We would have to look at the extent of the infection in NYC at the time the government clamped down vs. the extent of the infection in FL at the time the government clamped down to have any meaningful comparison.  It may turn out that in effect, FL was "early enough" while NYC was "too late", even though NYC clamped down earlier.  I have my eye on Sweden too, they have avoided business and school closures too, but are now reconsidering.  We'll revisit this in several weeks.

Jim

April 11, 2020 07:54 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

You have now posted three lengthy and rambling replies to a single one of my posts.  Is that a record?  The answer to many of your questions is in the graphs I have posted.  The Covid-19 death rate is shocking with social mitigation in place.  I am confident, based upon a lot of reading of real science, that it would be much worse absent mitigation. 

I will try to answer most of your questions reasonably succinctly.  It is a challenge to do so, and we will see if I am up to the task.  I do not intend to answer piecemeal.  You have laced dozens of repetitive questions in your three long posts.  I know in advance that you will accept none of this.  I am writing for myself, and for others.  I do not want anyone to question my sanity, given that replying to you is well known to be pointless.

With that preamble:

(A)  Of course I am bothered by the rise in suicides, violence, economic hardship, lost jobs, permanent business closures and so on.  All of this bad stuff arises because of the business closures and stay at home orders.  But, those business closures and stay at home orders are also the difference between exponential growth of the pandemic over a much longer time frame resulting in countless more deaths, plus collapse of the healthcare system, and much direct social hardship.   You like to compare the current social and economic hardships to the modest death rate we are seeing after successful mitigation.  That is the wrong comparison.  If we had allowed nature to run it's course, the death rate would currently be skyrocketing, the health care system would be overburdened to the point of collapse, and we would be looking at suicides, economic hardship, lost jobs, shuttered business and social unraveling because of the unchecked disease. 

I believe that the rate of suicides, economic hardship, lost jobs, permanent business closures and so on would have been much worse if we had let nature run it's course.  So, I think the closures and so on cause by our social response are of net benefit to society compared to the alternative - in short "worth it."

This is a balancing act though.  If we were to stay closed as a nation for the rest of the year, I think that the suicides, economic hardship, lost jobs, permanent business closures and so on might not be worth it.  That is why I am glad smart people are thinking about how to best emerge from the current situation. 

(B) Florida has more recently implemented the mitigation steps earlier implemented by New York.  Timing is everything.  We would have to look at the extent of the infection in NYC at the time the government clamped down vs. the extent of the infection in FL at the time the government clamped down to have any meaningful comparison.  It may turn out that in effect, FL was "early enough" while NYC was "too late", even though NYC clamped down earlier.  I have my eye on Sweden too, they have avoided business and school closures too, but are now reconsidering.  We'll revisit this in several weeks.

Jim
Just went for a walk to clear my mind.  Now I'll do concise:

Rich:  If you believed that the death and mayhem would be much much worse if we had simply let nature run it's course, then all of your questions would answer themselves.

Jim

April 11, 2020 12:57 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
Questions from you, such as "give me a specific number as to the percentage of how many people MORE would have died IF we didn't impose all this mitigation"were simply you trying to pin me down on a number when I've told you factually that there is ZERO way to know specific numbers.
Wow, you are delusional.  I never asked you that question.  I did state my own opinion that a hugely increased number of people would have died without social mitigation.  By the way, do you know what quotation marks are used for in written English?

April 11, 2020 01:04 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
I kind of thought the better of even responding to any of your postings, the ones asking questions, such as "don't you think that the numbers would be 89,000 fold greater if we hadn't done the mitigation we did"?
Maybe this is an exaggeration for comedic effect?  I think you have already agreed that the social mitigation efforts have been at least somewhat effective. Are you retracting that?  Also, I must ask again; do you know what quotation marks are used for in written English?  

J