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Posts Made By: James Brown

March 26, 2020 04:47 PM Forum: Politics

3.3 Million NEW Unemployment Claims just last week

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

In other words, if you couldn't be a lawyer any longer in order to take the measures that this country and other countries are taking are you willing to forego your career for this virus?  

Maybe when all this is over, and it turns out that it wasn't the apocalypse that the left and the WORLD PRESS said it was, you can walk up to that guy or gal who lost their job as a waiter or waitress and who won't be getting it back because the restaurant owner had to close his doors, and tell them "I understand that you lost your job and your livelihood.  I'm a lawyer and I just wanted you to know that I think it was worth it".

Yeah, do that, then come talk to me..  


The economic hardship is worth it, because the very predictable economic hardship caused by a collapse of the health care system is so much worse.  This is not saying that the economic hardship is not real and not devastating to a of of people in the services, hospitality, travel and many other industries.  I am saying that the alternative is much worse. 

Jim

March 26, 2020 05:55 PM Forum: Politics

3.3 Million NEW Unemployment Claims just last week

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

You're a business. You pay yourself a wage.  Your COMPANY may not make a PROFIT but you get paid.

You personally don't make zero.   

...

It is NOT worth this economic damage.  

I know it is hopeless to try explaining what is "worth it" to you again, but one last time: In my opinion, the real and terrible cost in lost jobs, closed businesses and long term economic disruption is worth it at the societal level, because I believe the medical experts.  I believe that the economic devastation that will result from the unchecked spread of this disease would dwarf the economic devastation we are going to suffer from the shut down.

I also, being an optimist, think that the shut down will work.  The curve will be flattened, the health care system will pull through, and economic catastrophe will be averted.  Test kits will be distributed and at some point, hopefully no too far off, and we will cautiously emerge from the shut-down.  We will take care of those whose livelihoods and businesses are ruined.  Larger crisis will have been averted, it will have been worth it.  

Incidentally, I think Trump will come through more likely to be re-elected as a "war-time" president than if this had never happened.   It is certainly not helping Biden to be sitting at home, out of the action.

Jim

March 26, 2020 06:12 PM Forum: Politics

3.3 Million NEW Unemployment Claims just last week

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
 The leftist media in the United States is doing everything they can to oust Trump.  
I agree, and I also thing the right-wing media is doing everything they can to prop up Trump.  This is business as usual in the USA today.

A)  I understand you to think that the primary reason for the shut down in the US is social hysteria fueled by the anti-Trump press.  Thus, you think the economic hardship caused by the shut down is NOT WORTH THE COST.   Is that a fair summary?  

B)  I think that the primary reason for the shut down is legitimate medical concern.  I think that flattening the curve is doable and necessary as a civic response to a medical crisis that could be much worse. Thus, I think the economic hardship caused by the shut down is WORTH THE COST

I think arguing further about whether position (A) or (B) is correct is pointless.  I did want to make sure that I was not misunderstanding your position.  Hopefully you understand mine.

Jim

March 26, 2020 06:18 PM Forum: Politics

3.3 Million NEW Unemployment Claims just last week

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Check your facts.  I didn't say you "made a wage"  I said you get PAID.

Don't obfuscate.  You get remuneration for your work.

Do you own stock in the company?  IF you are a company with stock options, you are one who has the most shares.  

Let's just put it this way.  

How many MILLIONS have you Put into your bank account in the last 10 years?  
Sigh.  

March 26, 2020 06:35 PM Forum: Politics

3.3 Million NEW Unemployment Claims just last week

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis


That's the same thing I do.  I get PAID, PERIOD.  I wouldn't be in business long if I never made any money and just got paid my expenses.

I'm a sole proprietor and you said that your billing was $450 per hour.  I understand you have expenses.  

Your company takes in $450 per hour/ PER LAWYER who bills.  You're wanting to play semantic word games here with "gee, I don't get a salary PER SE".  NO SHIT.

I understand that.  

Tell me this.  DO YOU BILL $450 PER HOUR OVERALL?  In other words when EVERYONE OF YOUR EMPLOYEES WORKS do you Only bill $450 per hour for the day?  

Answer is NO.  

EACH LAWYER who is ON THE CLOCK, BILLS customers $450 per hour, or some portion of that rate. 

In other words, your entire company does not bill $450 per hour X an 8 hour day

IS that factual?   

It bills MUCH More is that correct?  
I have  made plenty over my career Richard.   I definitely regret getting side tracked into a personal discussion with you.  I avoided that yesterday when you were asking about my wife.  Dumb on my part.
Jim

March 26, 2020 06:40 PM Forum: Politics

3.3 Million NEW Unemployment Claims just last week

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

I agree, and I also thing the right-wing media is doing everything they can to prop up Trump.  This is business as usual in the USA today.

A)  I understand you to think that the primary reason for the shut down in the US is social hysteria fueled by the anti-Trump press.  Thus, you think the economic hardship caused by the shut down is NOT WORTH THE COST.   Is that a fair summary?  

B)  I think that the primary reason for the shut down is legitimate medical concern.  I think that flattening the curve is doable and necessary as a civic response to a medical crisis that could be much worse. Thus, I think the economic hardship caused by the shut down is WORTH THE COST

I think arguing further about whether position (A) or (B) is correct is pointless.  I did want to make sure that I was not misunderstanding your position.  Hopefully you understand mine.

Jim
Richard:

A)  I understand you to think that the primary reason for the shut down in the US is social hysteria fueled by the anti-Trump press.  Thus, you think the economic hardship caused by the shut down is NOT WORTH THE COST.  Is that a fair summary? 

B)  I think that the primary reason for the shut down is legitimate medical concern.  I think that flattening the curve is doable and necessary as a civic response to a medical crisis that could be much worse. Thus, I think the economic hardship caused by the shut down is WORTH THE COST

I think arguing further about whether position (A) or (B) is correct is pointless.  I did want to make sure that I was not misunderstanding your position.  Hopefully you understand mine.

Jim

March 27, 2020 02:23 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

 Do we have half a million infected today?  NO we don't.

I think it is likely that we do.  Won't know until some more population scale testing is done.  There have been lots of articles describing studies in Korea, Japan and Italy that show significant numbers of asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic infections.  

The official numbers are certainly too low, the question is by how much.  We will know once enough testing is done here and around the world.  

Jim

March 27, 2020 02:32 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Answer: NO, then we DON'T have exponential growth.  Get a clue and learn how to do math.  
Richard:

James' math skills are fine, as are mine.  We do have exponential growth, we don't know what the exponent is precisely, because we don't know how many actual cases there are.  We have exponential growth of the known cases too, this should not be controversial. 

Any engineer in the country can look at the graph below and ID "exponential growth."  It is noisy data and the exponential growth is not smooth but it is there.  Compare two weeks ago to yesterday!  

Here's the deal though, and I think you know this.  In a biological system exponential growth is always self-limiting.  There are only so many people who can get sick and when enough of them do, the infection rate curve flattens and then decays.  That is the whole point of social distancing of course, to flatten this curve at a lower total infection number at the trade-off of a wider curve on the time axis.

March 27, 2020 02:43 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


We now have more total cases than anywhere in the world. 
Hi James:

I don't disagree with the bulk of your post.  I do seriously doubt that we have more cases than China.  I trust our reporting of positive tests.  I suspect that China under-reported by an enormous factor.

There could be a lot of reasons to lose 21M cell phone subscriptions, but a whole bunch of sick people could contribute to the situation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/china-s-mobile-carriers-lose-15-million-users-as-virus-bites

Jim

March 27, 2020 03:06 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Answer: NO, then we DON'T have exponential growth.  Get a clue and learn how to do math.  
Rich:

I downloaded the USA infection data from the CDC site and personally graphed the Total Covid 19 Infections by Day.  Worldometer already does this, but I wanted to do it myself.  Since you have mocked James and Russ's math skills, and since you adamantly deny that this disease has progressed exponentially, please tell me what alternative function would fit this curve?  Jim