Posts Made By: James Brown

April 22, 2020 11:58 PM Forum: Politics

Health Care Professionals Vs Trumptoids At The Protests

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I agree with Jim that the above sounds like a reasonable approach BUT there are many that don't fall into either category. Examples of the latter include those protesters who think the whole thing is a hoax or that if you don't agree with them then you need to reside in communist China. I could give you more examples of the latter but I hope you get my point because these are types of people who can get you or themselves and others sick with Covid19.
Hi Rod:

Yes, there are those types.  Hopefully there are not too many of them.  Still, I agree with your point.

This probably goes without saying, but there are also drunk and distracted drivers, unsafe gun owners, criminals, people with other infectious diseases and the like who might kill or maim anyone of us at any time.  We do a reasonable job as a society to protect against the risks presented by the careless among us, but we don't even try to drive the risk down to zero.  Everything we do has to be weighed against  against a test of what is "reasonable."  

Defining the point of "reasonable" CV19 risk and "reasonable" protective measures is where we are today.   If I might repeat myself, what is reasonable in Montana is not likely to be deemed reasonable in Queens.

Jim

April 22, 2020 10:13 PM Forum: Politics

VA Hydroxychloroquine Study: No Benefit/Higher Death Rate

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


Has anyone else noticed how Trump has altogether quit talking about it too?

I finished a book about the flu epidemic of 1918 last night. The Great Influenza by John M. Barry.

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is how history repeats itself. Our politicians have learned nothing over the decades since regarding the proper way to respond to a global health crisis. Politicians back then were as incompetent or even more so than today. Even back then, politicians were peddling snake-oil and encouraging the use of typhoid vaccines, and even quinine of all things! Their reasoning seemed to be if it worked on one disease, then it might just work on this one. Then they would convince themselves it worked regardless of results. Just incredible how our politicians have learned nothing.
Hi James:

Good to see your post.  Since you and Rich went dark at about the same time I was worried that maybe you and he were simply two personalities of the same patient pounding away at the keyboard in a psych ward somewhere! 

Just kidding.  ermm

Seriously.

J

  

April 24, 2020 11:22 PM Forum: Politics

Another Covid19 Treatment: Ineffective

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck
Un f'ing believable. I didn't watch any news yesterday and when I got into work this morning my partner was waiting for me to go off on him. When I didn't he told me what Trump said and it really didn't register until I heard it on the news on my way to fetch produce. 

Tillerson was right.  He's a F'ing moron. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w

To quote Prez Donny: "I have a good you know what."

BTW-Hello everyone. I figured it was a good time to end my exile from this forum and AM. I do have a few things to sell, both astronomy and musically related.

I did reread the last weeks posts and see someone else is on a little self imposed vacation.  LOL. He does get riled up. 

Oh, My grocery salesman was just here. I asked if he had any of the new Clorox Chewable's.

 
Hi Jim:

It is good to see you.  I imagine that the stay at home order has really hurt the restaurant side of your business... hopefully you are able to continue with take-out and butcher shop activities? 

Jim 

April 29, 2020 10:38 PM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by David Cotterell
When all is said and done and we look back on this as a historical event there will be no way to prove that, either,

There were only X deaths because the virus was no more deadly than the flu....

or

There were only X deaths because social distancing and keeping stuff closed actually worked.....

We're all just pushing on a rope here.

Dave
Not really Dave.  Some of the data I have posted shows fairly conclusively that COVID 19 is far more deadly than the flu, when we consider the rapidity and quantity of deaths over time.  Consider this fact (provided by a data scientist I am acquainted with):  As of a few days ago, there had been 41 days since the 100th COVID 19 death in the US.  Eliminating the time it took to get to 100 deaths, eliminates the noisy data in the ramp-up phase.  In those 41 days, 54,256 US folks died with COVID 19.

Compare this to the “bad flu” season of 2017-18, where we had 1062 deaths in the first 41 days after the first 100 deaths.  That is 51 times greater mortality for COVID 19 to the equivalent date.  When compared to the  “good flu” season of 2011-12, where we had 179 deaths to the equivalent 41 days after the first 100 deaths the disparity is much greater.  COVID 19 is 303 times greater mortality to the equivalent date.

What does this mean?  There is probably some testing artifact, but those are minimized when you talk about deaths.  For sure the extremely high "death velocity" means that COVID 19 was either much faster moving through the population (more infectious) or more lethal than the flu, or both.   Perhaps the pandemic will flame out just as quickly, with a number of deaths that is only equivalent to 1 or 2 times a bad flu season.  I certainly hope so!  But this infection and death "velocity" is nothing like any flu season we have ever seen.  Jim

As of yesterday:


 

April 29, 2020 10:52 PM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by David Cotterell
When all is said and done and we look back on this as a historical event there will be no way to prove that, either,

There were only X deaths because the virus was no more deadly than the flu....

or

There were only X deaths because social distancing and keeping stuff closed actually worked.....

We're all just pushing on a rope here.


Dave
I think the comparison of the 2019-2020 flu season to the 2017-2018 flu season demonstrates quite well that the social distancing and closures worked spectacularly, at least for the flu.  As you know, I'm optimistic that cautious and thoughtful re-opening will work well too, starting with the less impacted regions.

So, I think that reasonable interpretation of the data does prove that this pandemic had the potential to be much much worse than the flu, but the mitigation efforts worked as designed.  

I'm not an idiot though.  We can never "prove" any of this to those who are 100% certain that the whole social distancing and stay at home order package was just an excuse for leftist master-minds to strip our liberties, and we can never "prove" any of this to those who are 100% certain that cautious reopening of the economy will inexorably lead to untold death and social collapse.

Jim

April 30, 2020 12:30 AM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

The problem with your analysis is that it is faulty.  
Brilliant opening.

April 30, 2020 12:31 AM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I also understand that is an inconvenient fact for the left to absorb, but the death certificates are being either purposefully altered or they have been unintentionally made up to show a Covid 19 death when none was shown.
Right, and Obama was born in Kenya too.

April 30, 2020 12:36 AM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Your statement here is quite possibly the most asinine I've ever read on this forum and you've made a number of them lately.
 
You stated this when comparing this Covid 19 outbreak to the 2018 Flu epidemic  "That is 51 times greater mortality for COVID 19 to the equivalent date".

How convenient for you to use only that short 41 day period after the 100 day cycle had begun on both illnesses to make that idiotic assertion.  
100 day cycle?  You're confused, or mentally overwhelmed.  The comparison was after the 100th death.  Flu is traditionally cataloged in seasons that last about 210 days.  41 days after the 100th death was all the data we had so far.  Also, I expressly mentioned that I expect the mortality of COVID 19 to end up at a much lower multiplier of the entire flu season.

The point, which you missed entirely, is that COVID 19 killed a lot of people much faster than the flu does.  (In this millennium anyway).  Just look at the graph.  The graph makes my point indisputably.

April 30, 2020 12:42 AM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

You fraudulently pointed out that the AVERAGE number of DEATHS in the US from Heart Disease was 1790 per day.  Then you said we've got SEVERAL days where Covid was 2000 per day!!  

You then emoted even more, by saying,"that is shocking"!! 

I (actually the graph, it was another person's work) factually pointed out that heart disease kills an average of 1790 per day in the US.  Factually, not fraudulently.  No one suggested to anyone that COVID 19 was killing more per day, every day, than heart disease.  You made that up to create a bogus straw man to argue with.

It is shocking that this new virus has killed more than 2000 per day on several days.  At least as I define shocking.

April 30, 2020 12:44 AM Forum: Politics

Georgia

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

One thing to note, that it is NOW being claimed that there are FAR more individuals who already contracted this virus who exhibited very little in the way of symptoms, if not being completely asymptomatic.  

IF that proves to be true in the long run, then this Covid 19 was NOT NEARLY as deadly as the hysterics claim that it is.  
Yes.