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Posts Made By: James Brown

March 27, 2020 03:18 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

Rich:

I downloaded the infection data from the CDC site and personally graphed the Total Covid 19 Infections by Day.  Worldometer already does this, but I wanted to do it myself.  Since you have mocked James and Russ's math skills, and since you adamantly deny that this disease has progressed exponentially, please tell me what alternative function would fit this curve?  Jim
Yes folks, I'm just being mean now.  These are trying times and I am getting tired of inane arguments. 

At some point "fairly soon" we will need to cautiously emerge from the shut down to resuscitate the economy.  To paraphrase Dr. Fauci, the virus gets to decide what "fairly soon" is.  We are going to have to take some risks I think, and I trust that the medical and economic data is being generated as we speak to guide us through the risks.  There will be no safe options.  I'll quite possibly agree with Rich more than I agree with most D politicians when we get down to really discussing how to balance the health risks with the economic risks as we consider options for emerging from the shut down, but he makes it damn near impossible to agree with him.  angry

J

March 27, 2020 03:24 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


Similarly, we also are under-reporting since we can't test in mass, despite claims otherwise. 
True.  I do not think that the US would hide actual positives though.  I can't say that for China  They know, but they hide the data.  In India, no one will ever know or even try to guess the extent of infection.

Jim

March 27, 2020 04:13 PM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

Rich:

I downloaded the infection data from the CDC site and personally graphed the Total Covid 19 Infections by Day.  Worldometer already does this, but I wanted to do it myself.  Since you have mocked James and Russ's math skills, and since you adamantly deny that this disease has progressed exponentially, please tell me what alternative function would fit this curve?  Jim
I'm in the weeds now, but I can guess that Rich is going to pick one particular nit - if he is smart enough to spot it.  Infections grow and decay according to a Gaussian function (a bell curve).  A Gaussian function arises by composing an exponential function with a concave quadratic function.  (I had to look that up, it has been a long time since Calc. 3).

We are clearly in the exponential growth phase of the Gaussian function.   Eventually the growth rate will decline, flatten, and decrease.  This is inevitable whether this pathogen turns out to be less deadly and infectious than feared, or whether it wipes out humanity.  I'm hoping for and pretty confident of the former Rich.  Just making a mathematical point.

Jim 

March 28, 2020 12:08 AM Forum: Politics

If New York State is completely locked down....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I shouldn't have said infected, I meant to say CONFIRMED infected and we don't. 
Rich, my graph was of CONFIRMED infected.

J(i)m

March 31, 2020 08:15 PM Forum: Politics

No BS Assessment on Coronavirus Death Rate

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I'm building a house for my sister at the moment, so I don't need to make coffins.  
I sure hope your sister is not interested in moving in any time soon! 

I recognize that I have wasted plenty of time on this forum over the years, but seriously, just today alone you posted at 7:30, 7:40, 7:55, 8:33, 8:39, 8:46, 9:04, 9:21, 9:22, 9:24, 9:30, 9:33, 9:34, 9:44,  9:50, 10:09, 10:38, 11:04, 11:49, 1:22, 1:26, 1:29, 1:32, and 1:54!    Some of your postings were massive too.  I'm guessing that between Noon and 1:00 you took a break from the keyboard and ate lunch?

When do you find the time to swing a nail gun?

March 31, 2020 09:00 PM Forum: Politics

No BS Assessment on Coronavirus Death Rate

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Its called I work at home dickhead, building and then I install.    

I don't swing a nail gun.  
I thought you said you were building your sister's house.  Are you only making the cabinets in your shop for later installation?  No worries, that's honest work.  Maybe you could clarify the scope of your duties?  

March 31, 2020 09:02 PM Forum: Politics

No BS Assessment on Coronavirus Death Rate

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
Also I don't need "input from others" as you said you needed in order to compose a coherent thought.  

Since I never said that, your comment is self-disproving.

April 1, 2020 03:49 AM Forum: Politics

He's tougher than most : 'I survived the foxholes of Guam, I can get through this bulls**t’

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Steven Moore

Also where did this Virus come from was it not from 1 of the countries we fought against in WWII????   THINK ABOUT IT !!!!!!!!
!

China was one of our Allies in WWII!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE

April 1, 2020 03:51 AM Forum: Politics

No BS Assessment on Coronavirus Death Rate

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I'll clarify for you Jim...  

But if I die from Coronavirus first I guess I'll leave all my treasure to the group here!   LOL  
Sounds like a big project.  Stay off the keyboard and finish it up!  wink

April 1, 2020 07:02 PM Forum: Politics

Thank You Russia For Your Help

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

NO, it is already 15 Million.  They have been walking around already in society.  Why is your memory so faulty.

Jim B., the virtual HERO of the left here, whom you guys fawn and preen over, told you at least a week ago, that there were 15 Million in society with it or who had it.  

You need to pay attention.  

And BTW, that # wouldn't surprise me, which means of course that the percentage rate dead is smaller by magnitudes than is indicated.

Here's the kicker, no one knows.  
Rich:

I think the pandemic is going to be a lot worse now than I thought it was going to be when I made my first set of posts on the topic, maybe three weeks ago.  I am quite willing to admit that my own point of view has evolved to a point much closer to James, Rod, David, and Russ's original point of view.  Such is the nature of a rational approach to a dynamic problem.  Opinions evolve and change as the data rolls in.

For some folks, anyway.

In this context it is pretty silly of you to quote my initial speculation as if it were some sort of knowledgeable prediction.   At least quote me in context; "three weeks ago Jim Brown thought there were 15M un-diagnosed and possibly asymptomatic cases walking around..."  Time may prove that the final number of infections dwarfs my earlier speculation.

"As many as 240,000 Americans could die during the coronavirus pandemic, top health officials said on Tuesday, despite the measures that have closed schools, limited travel and forced people to stay home.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, and Dr. Deborah Birx, who is coordinating the White House’s response, encouraged people to adhere to distancing guidelines, noting that more than 2.2 million Americans could have died if nothing had been done."


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/politics/coronavirus-death-toll-united-states.html?auth=login-email&campaign_id=9&emc=edit_NN_p_20200401&instance_id=17241&login=email&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=66899985&section=topNews&segment_id=23488&te=1&user_id=d4263648b90af509f04d9604ba7e5d30

I believe these experts.  So, my initial optimism looks pretty naive in the rear-view mirror.

Jim