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Posts Made By: James Brown

April 2, 2020 02:21 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Well not to worry Jim, because IF those numbers of dead don't reach the 240K mark or even the 100K mark, you won't have the intellectual integrity to admit that you were wrong. 

That we can all be sure to note!  wink
How ridiculous.  I will be thrilled and overjoyed to admit that I was "wrong" if US deaths do not reach 100k. 

That is really quite a low number in a population over 300M, and all citizens of the US should all be thankful that we did not have millions dead.  I will most likely believe that the social distancing, closures and stay at home orders worked spectacularly, if we only have 100k dead.  You will believe that the virus is not all that lethal, and that we overreacted if we have less than 100k dead.  You will also believe that the overreaction was politically motivated.  

So it goes.

Jim

April 2, 2020 02:35 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


That is still true; they did not downgrade their initial assessment. Again, the report by Neil Ferguson included a wide range of possible outcomes based on how much mitigation took place. With no social isolation, the model predicted 500K deaths, and with extreme mitigations practices, it predicted as few as 2,600 deaths. Those numbers, and many others in-between, were always part of the initial model. Anyone who looks at the report for themselves can see this fact for themselves. The number he testified to in front of Parliament is a number from his model, and in his words regarding this subject:

"I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)."
And here is where Rich shows up and says, "oh, my mistake..."  Wait for it....

April 2, 2020 04:42 PM Forum: Politics

Thank You Russia For Your Help

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

And since you were obviously in agreement with Lacey in his posting, let me ask you a pointed question about it.

Lacey said this: 

  Again, the report by Neil Ferguson included a wide range of possible outcomes based on how much mitigation took place. With no social isolation, the model predicted 500K deaths, and with extreme mitigations practices, it predicted as few as 2,600 deaths. Those numbers, and many others in-between, were always part of the initial model. Anyone who looks at the report for themselves can see this fact for themselves. The number he testified to in front of Parliament is a number from his model, and in his words regarding this subject:

So then Jim, if this guy's modeling is so wildly varying, predicting between as low as 2,600 deaths, yet as high as 500,000 deaths, then what the hell good is this guy's f'in opinion anyway??  

Hell, YOU could predict that much.  How tough is it to say well it could be 30 people and it could be 100,000, but pay me a lot of money and I'll give you an inaccurate estimate that even a 5 year old could believe.  

The guy is a f'in joke and yet the world has stopped spinning because this idiot gave an estimate.  

And the sad thing is, you bought into it hook, line, and sinker.  
Richard:

I don't know how you are missing such a fundamental point...  The tops and bottoms in the prediction range are based on dramatically different social responses to the pandemic! 

Jim

April 2, 2020 04:48 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

Richard:

I don't know how you are missing such a fundamental point...  The tops and bottoms in the prediction range are based on dramatically different social responses to the pandemic! 

Jim
In case this is still too opaque, the wide range of outcomes shown in the models, being based of course on dramatically different social responses to the pandemic, are useful to a government forming a social response to the pandemic.  

Does that help explain what the models are useful for?

April 2, 2020 05:22 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

No, it went from 20,000 WITH the gov't intervention to 2600 according to Lacey.

 He was the one who cited 2600.  And since he believes anything that anyone tells him as long as they are  on the left side of the political aisle, my guess is that he just saw that somewhere.

After all, you agree with Lacey right, when he said 100% of the world WOULD be infected with this virus, and since we know you think Lacey is rational, then tell me;

Do you agree with that?  Will 100% of the people in the world GET Coronavirus, yes or no Please?   
No, I do not think 100% of the world's population will be infected.  Also, I don't believe your claim that James Lacey said 100% of the world population would be infected with the virus.  Link to his post and I'll read it though.

Jim

April 2, 2020 05:42 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Lacey claimed that the CDC said that this virus would infect 100% of people.  Now whether that is the world, or the United States, I don't think he clarified.

When I called him out on that absurd, asinine, moronic assertion, he doubled down and claimed that the Centers for Disease Control gave that percentage.  

So is even BELIEVING that type of nonsense "rational" to you Counselor?  The idea that 100% of Americans would contract the virus is sensible to you?

Would YOU ever believe such nonsense?  

You may not Believe that Lacey made that claim however he did.

I'm not going to bother wasting time finding that for you.  
Sadly Rich, you are well know to misrepresent other people's posts and statements.  Sometimes you troll, sometimes you simply lie. You have zero credibility.  So, when you post something stupid along the lines of this: 

"After all, you agree with Lacey right, when he said 100% of the world WOULD be infected with this virus, and since we know you think Lacey is rational, then tell me; Do you agree with that?  Will 100% of the people in the world GET Coronavirus, yes or no Please?"

I assume that you are at best taking James' post out of context and at worst simply lying about one of his posts.  Your reply above demonstrates that my assumption was correct.

Jim

April 2, 2020 06:56 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Page 12, 2nd posting, number 111.


https://astromart.com/forums/commentary-careful-read-the-terms-of-service/politics/the-hammer-and-the-dance-why-mitigation-is-not-enough?page=12

James Lacey 3/24/2020 5:15 AM:


We have never been through anything like COVID unless you are counting the flu epidemic of 1918. The COVID virus is novel, so none of us have resistance, and it's highly transmissible. Ergo, we are all going to get it sooner or later, and that translates to hundreds of millions of people in the US alone.


And he implied above that EVERYONE On EARTH will get it, unless you are an illiterate.

I've already established that you're a jackass, so add illiterate to my description of you.


Here's where he doubled down on stupid:

Page 12, 5th posting, number 114.

https://astromart.com/forums/commentary-careful-read-the-terms-of-service/politics/the-hammer-and-the-dance-why-mitigation-is-not-enough?page=12

I challenged him and since I was rational (unlike that buffoon),  

I stated:

That statement has zero basis in fact.  You have no idea that we are all going to get Covid 19.
 

His moronic response:

James Lacey 3/24/2020 8:14 AM:

It's what the CDC says, and they have on staff epidemiologists, statisticians, and a whole host of other experts who study and look at these types of problems for a living.

Sorry, your pal here James hasn't the logical reasoning of a turnip.  I hate to break the news to you.

So your assumption about me was wrong.

And BTW, go f*** yourself Counselor!  LOL tongue
As I anticipated, you took James' accurate discussion of the CDC assessment,  morphed it to an extreme (100%) position, and attributed it to James.  Then you ignored his attempts to clarify for you:

"It's what the CDC says, and they have on staff epidemiologists, statisticians, and a whole host of other experts who study and look at these types of problems for a living."

"By the way, somewhere along the way, this morphed into absolutism where everyone gets it. Some people will escape infection, but the point is it's going to infect the majority of Americans over a short period."


Now you hold your fabrication of reality up from time to time as proof that James wildly overstated the infectiousness of the disease.  How convenient.  This sort of manipulation of other's posts is your M.O. always has been, I suppose it always will be.

Jim

 

April 2, 2020 07:05 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

No, I just proved it and I reposted his exact words.  If you can't comprehend English counselor you should go back to school and learn something.

Start with having the intellectual integrity to admit when you're wrong.  
That's funny!

April 2, 2020 07:08 PM Forum: Politics

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Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

He never clarified a thing. 

When did he post that above? 
In the same thread, a 2-3 pages before you asked if I was still doing it with the Mrs.  I'm not sure whether to pity you, or just keep mocking you.  

April 2, 2020 07:57 PM Forum: Politics

Thank You Russia For Your Help

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Yeah, I posted that, because the same day he stated that the CDC DID claim that nonsense.

The next day of course he did like Neil Ferguson did and said "oh, I didn't mean that".  

Yeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh!  
I'm not sure how to simplify this enough for you.

James paraphrased the CDC assessment to make an obvious and frankly non-controversial point; any new, highly infectious viral disease of limited lethality will infect a large portion of the world's population before herd immunity kicks in.  You scoffed then, even more amazingly, you scoff now.  You appear to believe that this new disease would not infect a large portion of the world population without effective mitigation, otherwise why are you disagreeing with James?

Your "belief" lacks any scientific merit.  This is obviously a highly infectious disease.  Look at the very short time it took after escaping China to infect virtually all of the countries of the world.  Look at the graph of infections in the US below, this chart covers the last three weeks, after significant social costs have been paid to slow the spread and flatten the curve.  There really is no legitimate basis to deny that the new coronavirus would (maybe will) infect a huge chunk of the people on earth, absent truly effective mitigation and some luck.



Jim