Image of the day

From the
ATWB Customer Gallery

Bird on a wire

My Account

New to Astromart?

Register an account...

Need Help?

Posts Made By: James Brown

May 26, 2020 05:51 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

I think the data in CO, GA and TX still is looking pretty good as larger swaths of the economy are cautiously opened.  Restaurants will open for seated dining at 50% capacity in Colorado here tomorrow.  We had only 1 Covid 19 death reported yesterday.  Much reason to be optimistic that the pandemic will not be as bad as it could have been.   

Jim

May 26, 2020 05:57 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

According to Worldometer, the US death toll from Covid 19 has crept over 100,000 as of today.  That is very sad for all of us, and especially those who lost a loved one.  There is cause for optimism however, the National daily death curve is looking very good, and showing no signs of a spike or rebound in view of the relaxed social distancing in many states.

Jim

May 28, 2020 03:11 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

More good news.

How much testing is enough testing?  During the height of the pandemic some discussion of the "percent positivity" metric was bounced around in the press, with many outlets missing the point or using the metric as an offensive weapon it to scold certain governors who were deemed to be reopening too soon.  NPR did a good job of covering the basics, in my opinion:

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/03/30/824127807/if-most-of-your-coronavirus-tests-come-back-positive-youre-not-testing-enough

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/22/840526338/is-the-u-s-testing-enough-for-covid-19-as-debate-rages-on-heres-how-to-know

The gist of the "percent positivity" metric is that if too many of your Covid 19 tests are returning as positives, then you are not testing enough.  This makes sense since a high positive rate suggests that lots of untested positives are out there.  The WHO recommends ramping up testing until a jurisdiction achieves at most a 10% positivity rate.  Korea sees about 4% positives.  

This matters a lot because as States or countries roll out more tests, the number of documented infections goes up.  This increase in total cases makes for compelling CNN headlines, and is useful politically to bash the occasional governor.  But it makes sense that the more a jurisdiction tests, the more positives they get, whether the actual infection rate is going up, going down or staying the same.  Percent Positivity provides critical insight into whether the total infection numbers shown by positive tests correctly reflect the actual infection trends.

Colorado has been in phase 2 of our re-opening for a week or so.  Phase 1 of the reopening started several weeks ago.  I am pleased to see that not only are the total number of reported positives declining, but the percent positivity has declined to well below 10% over the past two weeks.  I believe most states are seeing this sort of great news as well.  Jim

May 28, 2020 03:29 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer


Once you get past all the partisan finger pointing the data is informative.....but all the "Trump said" "Trump did" is distracting. Trump mostly repeats what he is told by his advisors at any given point....Yet its all about shooting the messenger LOL

For my purposes I prefer the raw data such as on the worldometer site over the noise from the finger pointers and making up my own mind about where we stand.....
Hi Greg and Maurice:

I agree with Greg, the analysis is fine, but the Trump bashing, even if warranted in some cases is off-putting.  One quote in particular riled me:

"Dr Fauci has warned states that they will see "little spikes that might turn into outbreaks" if they reopen before getting the virus under control.

But his advice has contradicted that of President Trump, who is keen to get the US economy restarted ahead of his re-election campaign. The latest figures show that nearly a quarter of the American workforce have lost their jobs since the outbreak began.

Asked earlier this month whether lives would be lost to reopen the country, Mr Trump said: "Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country opened and we have to get it open soon.""

I understand as well as the next guy that it is important to Trump to get the economy going before the election.  Still, the line highlighted above makes it sound like this is the only thing Trump cares about.  I don't doubt that the BBC believes that this is all Trump cares about, their bubble is pretty tight.  From my perspective, this point of view is entirely unfair.  It is possible and extremely likely that Trump also cares about the suffering of those out of work, the business owners who are going to fail, the lasting damage to our economy and so on. 

Of course, I would probably faint if I saw the BBC, NYT, WaPo, CNN, NPR etc. acknowledge the possibility that Trump can form a reasonable or caring thought.  These are the sort of systemic press biases that helped cause Trump to be elected in the first place, and it appears that the press has not reconsidered at all.

Jim

May 28, 2020 04:46 PM Forum: Politics

WHO suspends hydroxychloroquine trial

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Now that made me laugh. And Joe Scarborough murdered that poor woman. 
Hi Jim:

Good one!

Don't forget that the only reason the government wants us to wear masks is social control as we slide toward totalitarianism.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/05/27/mandatory-masks-arent-about-safety-theyre-about-social-control/

Jim

p.s. I agree with 90% of what is published in The Federalist, but not with this article.  Personally, I am skeptical that the masks do much, but I'm very willing to wear one indoors, where mask wearing is the norm; as a courtesy to the vulnerable, as a recognition that it might help, and because it is actually a very minor inconvenience.   I feel sorry for the clerks in your store Jim, who are probably wearing them all day.  That would be very uncomfortable.  I'm not wearing one outdoors, like 90% of the folks in my Denver neighborhood.   I have been glared at once or twice by the strict 10%. 

Jim

May 28, 2020 07:11 PM Forum: Politics

WHO suspends hydroxychloroquine trial

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Jim, if the CO governor ordered that everyone wear a mask outside, would you do so?
Hi Darian:

So far, our governor has been reasonable.  He has not (and I don't think he would) order us to wear masks outside, unless he had real evidence on hand that outdoor mask wearing would be helpful.  If he ordered outdoor mask wearing, I'd certainly take a look at his reasoning and make a decision accordingly.  

That being said, if I were hiking around in the mountains with my wife, I can not imagine wearing a mask, no matter what the orders were.  I might have a mask on hand in case a ranger came up though!  ermm

If I were at an event like the usually very crowded Sunday farmer's market near our place in Denver, I would happily wear a mask if mandated.  I might even wear one if not mandated, if the market is as crowded as usual this summer.  I understand that it will be opening this Sunday.

Side note - my younger son just graduated with an engineering degree and, I am thrilled to say, landed a job in South Dakota.  As you can imagine, the entry level new job market is all but gone.  We traveled by car to SD last weekend to look for apartments.  Very few people were wearing masks in SD, except for grocery store and food-service staff.  I had my mask, but was happy to not wear it, since no one else was.  Hypocrisy?  Maybe, but when in Rome....

Only a few restaurants were open for indoor dining, but those that were open had widely spaced tables.   The grocery store we went into had arrows and shields, just like the ones in Denver.  The clerks were masked.  It all seemed quite like Denver, except for a lot less citizens wearing masks. 

Jim

May 28, 2020 07:19 PM Forum: Politics

WHO suspends hydroxychloroquine trial

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

Supplementary question for everyone.

If the Governor pointed out that all the science shows that transmission is significantly reduced when everyone is wearing a mask for both stopping you from getting infected  and for stopping you from infecting another person (note that you can be asymptomatic for up to 8 days...) , that it is, therefore, an excellent idea* to wear a mask when you are near other people would you wear a mask? Say at Costco or walking down Main Street where there are others....

*As opposed to an order?

Dave
Hi Dave:

My understanding is that there is no mask order in Colorado.  The "Safer at Home" FAQ states:  "Colorado is asking everyone to wear a non-medical cloth face covering while out in public for necessary activities like grocery shopping, going to work or walking your dog. Please make or buy a cloth covering that will cover your mouth and nose and use it whenever you are outside your own house or yard. Scarves and bandannas will work as coverings. Wash your face covering regularly."

Some of the grocery stores have "No Mask, No Entrance" signs though, presented in a friendly way.

So, for me and my family, we are voluntarily complying when shopping or doing anything indoors (outside of the house), and voluntarily ignoring the request when outside in an uncrowded place.   Frankly, we have not been to a crowded outdoor venue yet.  This seems to be the majority position among Coloradans, although a minority wear masks outside and a minority refuse to wear them shopping.

Jim




p.s.  Upon further review, I have confirmed that the CO mask request is a request, not a requirement.  Ultimately, I think this is a good move by our governor.  An order might decrease participation because of the backlash against these sorts of orders.

May 29, 2020 02:15 PM Forum: Politics

WHO suspends hydroxychloroquine trial

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

What has given me a glance into the mind of the freaks out in the Democrat land of liberalism is how you and yours peddle conspiracy theories on a day by day basis, and then think they are insightful by stating the most lunatic of loony theories one after the next. 

So Doc, did you consult with the other doctor whom you claim is giving Trump placebo pills and telling him they are HCQ?  

Any evidence for this or did you simply have a flashback from a hallucinogenic Acid Trip from years ago and then decide to blurt it out here on the forum?   

My guess is the latter.  Either that, or you finally went more bonkers than you have been in recent decades.

If one rang your doorbell and you answered, would they see this?  
Hi Rich:

How could you reply and not even acknowledge Jim's funny Joe Scarborough retort!  And then to double down as if the left had cornered the market on loony conspiracy theories?  Breathtaking.

Jim

May 29, 2020 02:19 PM Forum: Politics

WHO suspends hydroxychloroquine trial

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Why do we need to entertain fantasy scenarios from you?  The science is not showing that wearing a mask proves that transmission or reception is significantly reduced by wearing a mask.  

And be specific.  What is "ALL the science"?  That platitude seems to be a favorite among leftists who dismiss virtually every bit of scientific evidence that doesn't agree with the agenda they want to push this month.  

Supposition and conjecture isn't science, nor is science based upon majority rule. 

Did your governor or equivalent tell you this?  Is he a doctor or just parroting what some 'scientist' told him, and a cherry picked one at that?

When the left and others who are all over the map come to a definite agreement based upon sound evidence, then maybe you'll have something there.  

Until then, guessing games don't cut it.  

Destroying an economy based upon conjecture isn't cutting it either.  

More knee-jerk responses and orders aren't cutting it either.  
Rich:

I'm curious how many dead you would guess the US would have now, if we had undertaken no mitigation efforts.  As you like to say, be specific.

J

May 29, 2020 02:22 PM Forum: Politics

What the Dems are banking on

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
Vote Harvesting.  They'll get it, because they cannot win without cheating.  

I'm thoroughly convinced that Dems are so relentless and have not an ounce of honesty among the bunch that they will inevitably take the Senate and the House.  Once they get hold, its over baby.  

The most dangerous party that has ever been in this country is this party of liars, cheats, and frauds and their constituency are too stupid to recognize what is right in front of their faces.  

And these meatheads sit back, let their corrupt leadership do whatever they like, and then scratch their heads wondering with their peabrains, why society is all but crumbling around them and they aren't getting ahead but going further and further in debt.  

Leftists have run their states into the ground fiscally, but the leaders keep promising them a pot of gold, IF they just keep electing them.  

Best of luck with that.  
Pretty bold post, given that you just accused the left of trafficking in conspiracy theories.

Jim