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2020 President - NO COMMENTS (take to Politics Forum)


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Posts Made By: James Brown

September 4, 2020 03:45 PM Forum: Politics

I wonder how well this will go over with NFL fans?

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Jim, in my earlier post I mentioned a number of negative characteristics pertaining to a segment of black men, one which is the relatively high murder rate. The weekly murder rate in Chicago would be a good example. If 10 or 15 people are murdered in Chicago over the weekend it's no "big deal"; it's only blacks killing blacks, and that's what blacks do to each other. That's pretty much the attitude regarding this specific matter. 

That being said, don't you think what I've described above(just to use one example) just might have something to do with the "negative social treatment"?
I imagine that the murders in Chicago are a very big deal to those who live in those neighborhoods.  The following is a set of difficult points to make properly and succinctly, but I'll try: 

Anyone, white or black, who ventures into gang-war territory in Chicago ought to be very fearful of any young black men idling on the street.  That is a rational response to a very real and dangerous circumstance in a certain locale.

Anyone who takes that fear and extrapolates it to blacks elsewhere is being racist.  Maybe in a very small way, but it is still racism, even under the MLK definition.

The situation in Chicago is a clear disaster.  Is the fault solely with the young black men?  You say yes.  I think the answer is much more complicated.  I say that without giving the young black criminals a pass for their share of the blame.

Jim

September 9, 2020 07:55 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

New MorningConsult Polls:

MI; Biden 52%; Trump 42%
WI; Biden 51%; Trump 42%
MN; Biden 49%; Trump 44%
PA; Biden 50%; Trump 45%
FL; Biden 50%; Trump 45%
AZ; Biden 49%; Trump 46%
NC; Biden 48%; Trump 47%

Most of these polls are showing a difference way outside the margin of error.
Hi James:

I think Nate Silver's analysis is about right at this point in time.  Based upon current polling 538 has the odds at about 75% to 25% in favor of Biden.  The underlying data is very fragile though.  Go here and scroll down to the "snake" chart. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

538 currently has AZ, FL, and NC as Biden states, but the odds are at about 50/50.  I think it is likely that AZ, FL, and NC ultimately vote for Trump, assuming that nothing really weird happens between now and then.  If that comes to pass, PA is the tipping point state.  Trump wins with AZ, FL, NC and PA or maybe without PA if he picks up 2 out of 3 of MN, WI, and MI instead of PA.  

Since PA is so close, I think the race is actually a toss-up at this point in time.  All eyes are on PA.

Jim

p.s.  I really don't like 538's cutesy new "Fivey Fox."  I'd bet that does not last.

Jim 

September 9, 2020 07:59 PM Forum: Politics

I Find This Quite Interesting

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

For clarification:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/us/biden-lightbulb-black-man-trnd/index.html
That's not clarification Rod.  That's blatant spin.  Biden has presumably moved on and his shills at CNN are only making things worse.  The world is chock full of people who made the light bulb better.  I myself have worked on LED technology patents that arguably represent later generation technologies of "making the light bulb better."

p.s.  I just read the short history of the invention of the incandescent light bulb from MIT.  (Linked in the CNN article).  Latimer's improvement was important and many people were working on electric lights at the time of Edison's first success.   This is not an issue where nuanced views are going to be well received by the public though.  Joe stepped in it.  I bet that his talking points were about the improvements made by Latimer, who was no doubt a talented black scientist.  Joe flubbed that into a counter-factual that no spin is going to fix.
  

Jim

September 9, 2020 09:18 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


I thought he had AZ, FL, and NC more "lean Biden," not sure Biden. 
He does.  It is almost 50/50 for these three states in his analysis.   We agree on the "too early to tell part."  

Jim

September 9, 2020 09:21 PM Forum: Politics

I Find This Quite Interesting

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

So you're the one who's responsible for all the full-spectrum LED lighting us visual guys can't filter out. Gee, thanks, Jim...grin
No some very very very rich guys working out of MIT are responsible for that!  cool  

September 9, 2020 09:30 PM Forum: Politics

I Find This Quite Interesting

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
So Jim, what do you think of Trump's premature announcement of the candidacy of Senator Ted Cruz for the supreme court. What about Tom Cotton? Which one do you prefer?
I'd bet big money that Amy Coney Barrett is the nominee if Trump wins and RBG dies or resigns.  

I think Trump's unconventional approach to releasing a list of SC candidates "in advance" helped him beat Clinton.  This was arguably a very savvy political move.  Worked last time anyway.

Do you think Joe Biden will release a list too?  I feel like I'm channeling Rich here, but if Joe does not, why not?  Unlike Rich, I'm not playing gotcha -  I'll go first.  Personally I think that Joe will not release a list because if the SC candidates are too far left the R's will attack and if the candidates are Merrick Garland types, the lefties will revolt.  It's a lose - lose for Biden.

Trump on the other hand seems to have a better time rallying the base with his list of origialists.  Gives him some credibility with conservatives he might not otherwise have.

Jim

September 9, 2020 09:37 PM Forum: Politics

Trump In His Own Words Even As WH Denies It...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal
sleeping
You seem to be in a rut Darian. 

This is probably offensive, and I'm sorry about that in advance, but the idea of anything negative about Trump being a "snooze" seems to me to be a lot like sticking your head in the sand.

I think Trump is very vulnerable, in large part because of his own tweets and words.   I get it that you are going to vote for him and LA is in the bag for him.  What makes politics interesting though, is considering how Trump's actions and Biden's actions will play in the actual swing states.  I think it is fascinating that a few persuadable voters in a few states are going to make the difference in this election.  Hardly a snooze at all!

Jim

September 10, 2020 03:20 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


The POTUS, who has told over 20,000 documented lies and falsehoods while in office, is accusing everyone else of lying. You can't make this stuff up.
Hi James:

Actually, the WaPo can make this stuff up.  I found this article linked on Real Clear to be pretty compelling.  Your take might vary!  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/09/10/no_trump_hasnt_made_20000_false_or_misleading_claims.html

Of course Trump has lied plenty, and some have been whoppers.  Most of those 20,000 falsehoods are simply exaggerations, duplicates, and value statements the Washington Post does not agree with. 

For example, 

"Just to start, here’s one of Trump’s most oft-repeated “lies,” according to Washington Post fact checkers: “My job was made harder by phony witch hunts, by ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ nonsense.” The Post dings Trump for some variation of this claim 227 times – more than 1% of Trump’s alleged untruths..." 

It takes a fairly partisan slant, in my opinion, to call those 227 statements lies.

or:

"Other allegedly misleading claims are simply insulting to readers, such as this one Trump’s been rung up for eight times: “We have tremendous African American support.”" 

The Post is engaging in a level of nit-picking there that is matched only by our dear friend Rich.

I have not perused the list myself, and maybe RCP is cherry picking to make a point, I am sure they are.  But I think the underlying message is valid.  The "fact checking" aspect of the press has so overplayed their hands by calling policy statements they disagree with and political exaggerations "lies" that they have ruined their own credibility.  The bias displayed by the major fact checkers is outrageous.  

Jim 

September 10, 2020 03:21 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer


I realize that "voter suppression" is a talking point.....and one used by both sides in all major elections....but I dont buy into it.
Hi Greg:

Neither do I.  But, I don't buy into mail-in balloting being the Devil's playground, so what do I know!

Jim

September 10, 2020 03:22 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


The top three tipping point states, according to most forecasts, are PA, FL, and WI; in that order. Right now, PA and FL are a toss-up. Also, right now, WI is leaning Biden. Assuming there are no surprises, it looks like it boils down to what happens in PA and FL. Anyone who is counting Trump out at this point is way too optimistic. It does boil down to turnout and how independents and undecideds vote. The base support is immovable.
I agree 100% with each line of this post.  Jim