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2020 President - NO COMMENTS (take to Politics Forum)


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Posts Made By: James Brown

September 10, 2020 03:41 PM Forum: Politics

No, really!!

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer
If we can vote by mail then we can sell guns by mail. You Democrats would of course lose your freaking minds over this, right? Stating that gun purchases need to be made in person and with ID, you know, to prevent fraud & all, right? smile
Hi Greg:

I'm not a Democrat of course, but I'm not a gun owner either.  I think that guns could safely be sold over the mail - but there would be a lot of hoops to jump through.  The buyer would have to prove his/her identity and qualifications prior to purchase over the mail and probably have to take delivery at a gun shop or from a gun-shop sponsored deliver service, where someone trained and qualified checks the recipient out.  This is more or less what happens now right?  Adding mail-in would not make the system less safe, if reasonable precautions were taken.

Another example:  I buy wine on line through a nifty wine club.  Someone over 21 has to sign for the delivery.  Reasonable precautions.

Another example:  Mail-in or drop-off voting works well with no more than typical fraud because the state can/does take reasonable precautions.  So, here are my points:

1.  Everyone knows that some number of kids buy booze illegally, criminals buy guns illegally and political crooks vote fraudulently, in person.

2.  A system that has reasonable precautions in place can rely on "mail-in" for the same transactions and be just as safe as the baseline safety of in-person transactions.   

3.  The definition society settles upon for what is a "reasonable precaution" for voting, buying booze, or buying a gun will vary in each case depending on a lot of risk and consequence factors.

Jim

September 10, 2020 03:53 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I'm sorry, Jim, Trump deserves all the criticism he gets for being an inexhaustible liar and selfish, incompetent charlatan. I apologize that this response is out of proportion with what you wrote, but this pandemic has affected me and my family's livelihood directly, and I blame Trump for a lot of it. 
Hi James:

Your response is fine.  I agree with what I quoted above - Trump does lie and I think it is likely to lead to his electoral demise.  If his lies bring him down, I approve of that.  Even so, I think outlets like the Washington Post overplay their hands dramatically.  It is not necessary to go with "20,000" lies when that is demonstrably not objective.  They hurt themselves in my opinion.

Also, the "fact-checking" bias against Rs or conservatives predates Trump by a lot.   So much of fact-checking journalism is opinion work cloaked in unearned objectivity.

I am saying this, also knowing that Trump is a liar and might get what he deserves come November.   I don't think it is inconsistent to acknowledge that Trump is a liar and also to hold a low opinion of the primary fact-checking organizations.

Jim

September 10, 2020 05:00 PM Forum: Politics

Trump Can't Spell "Liar"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
"Of course Trump has lied plenty, and some have been whoppers.  Most of those 20,000 falsehoods are simply exaggerations, duplicates, and value statements the Washington Post does not agree with."
Jim, the biased opinion piece from real clear politics is a whopper in itself. It's bogus claim that Trump hasn't said Biden means to defund the police in absolutely false. To wit:
“Biden has vowed to defund the police, do all sorts of things to law enforcement that are bad,” Trump said in an August “tele-rally” with supporters on Facebook.
That said, let's assume for a minute that 1000 reported lies in the Washington post are either mistakes, duplicates or are otherwise incorrect. That leaves 19,000 others that are not. No president lies as much as Trump and the damage his lies do are proportionate with the frequency and severity of their consequences. 
Hi Rod:

I should have said "many" not "most" in my post.  That was careless, since I have not gone through the WaPo list line by line.  Jim

September 16, 2020 07:50 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Hi all:

I think it is puzzling that several EU countries are seeing a resurgence of Covid 19 infections, while the East Coast states that had very bad infection rates this spring have not seen a large resurgence.  See columns 1 and 2 below.  I have read that Spain opened the bars aggressively, and that is apparently not the case in NY and MA.  I'm not so sure about NJ.  Also, the EU countries were infected a few weeks before NY and the US East Coast.  

Still, the resurgence in Spain, France, and elsewhere in the EU calls into question my earlier optimism about early herd immunity plus residual immunity from other corona viruses (common cold) being in play.  It will be interesting to see how this works out as we head into the autumn with schools reopening in certain locales.  

The good news is that deaths in the EU and East Coast are coming in at low, and if I may be cold-hearted, "tolerable" rates.  See column 3.  Here in Colorado the Covid 19 death rate is down to about 2 per day.

Jim

September 16, 2020 08:00 PM Forum: Politics

"Herd Mentality"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Florida, of all places. And one in which DeSantis ordered Covid data of certain school districts withheld. I live in a community similar to a cross section of older Trumptoids and younger ones seen in that Target store. We've got the third highest outbreak of covid cases of the cities within LA county and I was at UCLA medical today in Santa CLarita where they've got a Covid testing site in the parking lot. The testees look a lot like those in that Target store...
Hi Rod:

I don't doubt that Florida, Texas  and California could possibly do better - but the trend lines are looking good in these largest Southern and Western states.  Deaths are down too.

Jim

September 16, 2020 08:12 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I liked the way Cuomo framed it last night on CNN. He likened the situation to that of a sinking boat. All though some of the flooding has slowed, the water is still coming in and the boat is still sinking. Instead of having 40,000 cases per day in the USA, we have 30,000 or so new cases per day. 
 A lot of people won't use masks and when we eventually get a vaccine, they won't get it...
The sinking boat is an extremely negative metaphor, from what I am seeing.  I would put it this way: 

We are all in a boat out to sea.  A huge hurricane was spotted coming our way.  Loss of life was inevitable.  We pulled together and saved a lot of lives.  The boat did not sink.  Mistakes were made of course, and maybe some people died unnecessarily.  But overall we did a good job and the boat survived nicely.

Jim

September 16, 2020 08:27 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

 I think it's more like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic...
Seriously?  Do you think the death tolls or serious hospitalization rates are going to go way up this fall?  If you do, you could be right, but I sure don't see it.  Even in Spain, which is the poster child for a resurgence, the death and serious hospitalization rates are way down.

Jim 

September 16, 2020 08:29 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


The Texas mask order went into effect on July 2nd. On that day, we had 122 COVID fatalities. We peaked at 269 deaths on July 23rd, exactly three weeks later. Since then, our fatalities have steadily declined, and on September 9th, we dropped to single-digit fatalities per day. Currently, we might see 1 or 2 deaths per day. Public health data also shows that other infectious disease like gastrointestinal bugs are also being crushed. For me anyway, it's obvious the mask mandate worked.
I agree, and wearing a mask in public places is so extremely easy.  My optimism is not giving Trump and the mask naysayers a pass.  It is more of an observation that the majority is doing what is good for them.  Kudos to Texas by the way for dropping to single digit fatalities.

Jim

September 16, 2020 09:59 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Well, if this is any indicator...

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=73042312
Hi Rod:

You know better than to think a one day bump means anything.  Also, the article does not even support the headline, unless I missed something.  Also, this alleged three-fold bump is just a repeating statistical pattern where all of the deaths over the weekend are reported on the first business day or two after the weekend.  See the snippet from the US death graph below.  they pretty much could recycle this alarmist headline each and every week on Monday or Tuesday!  Sorry, but the quoted headline is pretty much fake news.  Shame on ABC.

Jim

September 21, 2020 03:00 PM Forum: Politics

Ginsberg: Loss Of A legend

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


This take is the correct viewpoint. If Richard were here, and I'm glad he's not, he would be gaslighting all of us and trying to concoct an alternate reality where Democrats are eternal hypocrites, and Republicans always act consistently virtuous. The winning side will use power to get their way when they can, despite any political hypocrisy. The losing side will say that it's unfair despite their actions in the past. It is the way politics works. On the other hand, karma and pay-back is a bitch. Sooner or later, the Democrats will be in power, and right now, it's looking like ramming a replacement for RBG through will bring about that certainty sooner rather than later.
So far, nothing too inflammatory in this thread.  I'm kind of surprised.  RBG was an admirable woman and a powerful justice.  Her finest legacy might be in all of the girls she inspired to achieve at their own highest levels.

I agree that hypocrisy is synonymous with Washington DC.  

If I were on the Trump reelection strategy team (and of course I'm not) I would counsel Trump to make the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, but counsel McConnel to hold off on hearings and a vote until after the election.  That way, the worst of the Garland hypocrisy can be defused, and the R base will be even more motivated.  Rs have always seemed to care about the Supreme Court more than Ds.  If Trump wins, the hearings and vote can proceed without any extra controversy.  If Trump loses, there would still be time to have hearings and hold a vote after the election.

Jim