Image of the day

Captured by
Terry Wood

Jupiter (clearer) Nov 5th 2023 w/Mewlon 180c

My Account

New to Astromart?

Register an account...

Need Help?

Posts Made By: James Brown

November 6, 2020 10:51 PM Forum: Politics

The Senate

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Patrick Keafer

That could be.  But at least here in virginia when I voted absentee in previous years it had to be mailed in advance of election day or I had to vote in person.
The Colorado system is smart and effective.  I'd like to see it widely implemented:

1.  All registered voters get a ballot mailed to them at their official address.
2.  All ballots have to be received by election day or they do not count.  No exceptions, except maybe overseas military.
3.  Some (about 40%) mail the ballot back - you are strongly encouraged to do this at least a week in advance.
4.  Most return the ballot to secure drop-off boxes that are nearly everywhere.
5.  A few still vote their ballot at a polling place.  Serious procrastinators I guess.  This is less than 1%
6.  Status emails are sent regularly (Your ballot is in the mail, Your ballot has been received back, Your ballot has been accepted etc.)
7.  The counties and precincts canvass the signed envelopes as they come in, I'm not sure if they count the ballots all along, but we always have the results a few hours after the polls close.

Easy peasy.  The simplicity of our system is why Colorado has a nation leading 89% turnout among registered voters.   Of course, making it easy to vote makes it easy for occasional voters, millennials and the like to actually vote.  I suppose this in part explains the rapid switch of Colorado from a swing state in 2012 to a reliably blue state in 2020.  But is anyone going to argue that this is a bad thing?  The republicans need to adapt to the new voter demographics or die.  I think that the 2020 vote in the House and statehouses suggests that the Rs are adapting, although maybe too slowly.  We'll see in 2024.

Jim

 

November 6, 2020 11:01 PM Forum: Politics

"Judge rejects Trump lawsuit seeking to halt Michigan vote count"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


It's looking like Nate Silver wasn't that wrong. In fact, I'd say he did pretty darn well.
Hi James:

Yes and no.  As we have discussed, Silver's model showed either a super close race or a Biden blowout if the polls were wrong again and wrong at least as badly as 2016.  The difference being were the polls wrong in favor of Trump or wrong in favor of Biden.  So Silver's model proved to be accurate given the polling data fed into it. 

However, the polling sucked.  The underlying polling caused the model to miss the Senate by a lot and caused it to miss the House by orders of magnitude.  

So, the fact that Biden did win is thin soup for the polling industry.  The polls were off by at least as much as they were in 2016.  We'll have to wait until 2024 I suppose to see if the polling industry can recover when Trump is presumably not on the ticket.  I suspect they can not.  

Interestingly, a few rogue polling firms called this as a very tight race all along.  (Morningstar and at least one other).  They creamed the Quinnipiac's and WSJ polling firms this time.

So I love Silver's approach, but this time again the underlying polling data was garbage in, garbage out.   

Jim

November 6, 2020 11:21 PM Forum: Politics

Since Pennsylvania...

Posted By James Brown

Since Pennsylvania is now in Biden's column and the remaining votes are likely to build upon Biden's lead, I am guessing that Chief Justice Roberts, ACB and the rest are breathing a little easier.   The number of disputed votes in PA is probably not going to come close to the lead Biden ends up with, which is an entirely sufficient reason for the Supreme Court to refuse to revisit the pending case.

It is time for Trump to concede.  He has no path forward to victory and the wholly unsubstantiated drumbeat of "election fraud" is just further damaging the GOP brand.  Trump has to be Trump, but my chief worry between now and January 5 is that Trump so thoroughly makes an idiot of himself that the Georgia voters give Biden the Senate.  

Jim 

November 7, 2020 12:23 AM Forum: Politics

Since Pennsylvania...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


Apparently, Stacey Abrams is largely responsible for Georgia going blue. Her loss to Kemp in her 2018 gubernatorial bid tainted under a cloud of voter suppression claims motivated her to transform Georgia's electorate. Her work has registered a phenomenal 800,000 new voters since 2018.
I read that too.  I personally sure hope that her army of new voters considers their work done for the time being, now that Trump has been shown the door.  

Jim

November 7, 2020 12:28 AM Forum: Politics

Since Pennsylvania...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll
What I think, which I know Richard is dying to hear, is that GOP leadership needs to be huddled and planning either how to convince Trump to concede, or take matters into their own hands. 
Some dark jokes about bunkers and Eva Braun came immediately to my mind, but discretion prevails.  

I agree by the way.

Jim

November 7, 2020 12:30 AM Forum: Politics

Since Pennsylvania...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

There's always repentance and prayer:
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/524794-trump-supporters-pray-outside-of-clark-county-election-department-in
Good for them.  I see that the "peaceful protesters" are still burning Portland every night.  Don't these guys have an internet connection?

https://abcnews.go.com/US/protesters-portland-target-city-commissioners-home-set-fire/story?id=74054924


Jim

November 7, 2020 01:24 AM Forum: Politics

"Judge rejects Trump lawsuit seeking to halt Michigan vote count"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

HI Jim, What makes you think he won't be on the ticket? I think it's a distinct possibility he will run.
Hi Jim:

That is just mean.  Seriously.  Why not just fly to Denver and tag-team with Richard until I'm beaten senseless?  sad

I think Nikki Haley or some other fresh and relevant face will kick his ass in the primaries, if he decides to run.  Also, I agree with Russ - Trump likes to run and likes to win, but does he actually enjoy being president?  He can get the 24/7 attention he craves by becoming a media persona, maybe he'll set up his own channel now that Fox has turned on him.  He's gotta do something to make some money now.

Jim

November 7, 2020 01:27 AM Forum: Politics

Since Pennsylvania...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark
With the way things are going in the senate and house, I wonder if the pending result for the president was more a vote against Trump rather than for Biden. There must have been quite a few "split ballots".

Hi Maurice:

I understand that the R's did well in various state legislatures too.  So, yes, I personally think voting against a candidate has been the norm in the past two presidential cycles, with lots of folks splitting their tickets.

Jim

November 7, 2020 02:00 AM Forum: Politics

Since Pennsylvania...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


If one of the primary reasons Trump lost is his character and decency, then that is completely appropriate.
Hi James:

For some of us, character and decency is the overwhelming reason to vote against Trump.  As Rich correctly points out, I personally don't have too many issues with the executive policies of the last four years.  I certainly appreciate the judicial appointments and so on.  I also don't blame Trump for the virus or our response.  If you look at Europe right now, or even Canada, the entire free world is getting pounded by the virus, and it does not seem like there is much a government can do about it.  But, that is not my point...

My point is something I have been thinking about since before the election.  If Trump had shown any character and decency I think he wins reelection easily.  As it is, he almost won.  Trumpism obviously speaks to a large swath of voters who love his swagger and demeanor.  They don't care about character issues because so many politicians obviously lack character, whether they are polished like a Clinton or raw like Trump.  Will these voters who love Trump and go to his rallies and so on still vote for Marco Rubio or Nikki Haley?  I'm afraid they may not.  Any thoughts? 

What would it take to get you to vote R again, or has that ship sailed forever? 

Jim

November 7, 2020 02:06 AM Forum: Politics

"Judge rejects Trump lawsuit seeking to halt Michigan vote count"

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Hi Jim: I honestly meant no harm and I shudder to think I came off a mean. I shouldn't be posting today anyways as I got very little sleep last night. I think I mentioned in another thread that my best friend from HS is in the hospital in AZ due to the virus.

Really, sorry it came out like it did. I agree with your assessment but also think he'll be running in the primaries, at least, for the attention.  
No worries, I was joking.  But still - I sure hope Trump "loudly" fades away.  Better to burn out than it is to rust!

Jim