Originally Posted by Darian Rachal
Jim, I'm curious. What has occurred to erode your confidence in a Biden victory?
Erode is a good word, I still think Biden wins, but it is an interesting question. These are not ranked, just thoughts in the order I'm thinking them:
1. The polls are tightening in the swing states.
2. I can't bring myself to believe that states like Georgia are actually leaning Biden, so I have less confidence in the polls.
3. Although D's are leading the early vote in some states, they always do and the margins are perhaps worse that HRC enjoyed, this is unclear though.
4. I have seen articles suggesting that the Rs are winning the new registration battles in certain states, but still unclear.
5. I think that Hunter's laptop is a problem for Biden, and in particular Twitter and Facebook etc. suppression of the laptop story is a problem for Biden.
6. I think it comes down to Pennsylvania, and there have been stories from people in Pennsylvania that suggest Trump has not lost support there.
7. My wife reiterated the other day that she was annoyed by the press pinning the Corona deaths on Trump. (she listens to NPR mostly)
8. This one is borderline silly, but with each story about a rapper coming out in support of Trump, I wonder if unanticipated black support for Trump is actually happening in the black urban communities.
I see the race going two ways - either the polling is more or less correct and Trump loses GA, NC, FL, AZ, maybe OH and so on - a Biden blow-out. Or The polls are just wrong enough that Trump wins FL, OH, NC and it all comes down to PA. I don't think Biden has helped himself in PA with the fracking comments. I don't think riots in Philly right now
help Biden either.
We'll see on election night, maybe. For sure if Biden wins in a blow out. If it comes down to PA or PA and NC though, it could take weeks.