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Posts Made By: James Brown

October 28, 2020 04:10 PM Forum: Politics

Amy Barrett learns of her true place in History....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll


Man, it shows you how little I follow the judiciary. I could have sworn ticked off Republicans on the Judiciary Commitee tossed out using ABA ratings anymore because too may Trump nominations were getting "fake" not-qualified ratings from them. I must have dreamt that.
I bet you didn't dream it.  The Committee might have decided to deemphasize the ABA ratings, but the ABA being an independent professional association can certainly keep doing them.  I don't know though.

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:00 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
 or Polyannas who think that we can survive a Joe Biden Presidency, don't waste your time.  
Hi Rich:

I'm less confident that Biden will win than I was a couple of weeks ago, but let's assume he does win.  Based upon that assumption, I'm willing to bet just about anything that you would care to wager that the US will survive a Joe Biden Presidency.  

Four years from now, assuming our mutual continued good health of course, you'll still be here cranking out whatever you believe it is that you crank out.  I'll be trying to reign in your excesses and arrogantly trying to score points with my wit and charm.  Same old same old.  The US will have evolved and changed of course.  Being old conservatives, you and I will probably miss the good old days in many respects, but hey, that is the way it always goes.

Anyway, you name the terms and I'll wager you in front of our forum friends that the US survives a Joe Biden Presidency nicely.

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:10 PM Forum: Politics

It's Befitting He's Swearing In Amy...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Dave, without going into a lot of detail, it's my understanding that this was a compromise between those(slave states) wanting slaves to count as one person and the non-slave states who didn't want slaves counted; it would give the slave states more representatives. 

Anyone, feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken.
You are correct of course Darian.  Dave is just trolling.  If he cared at all about the judicial philosophies of conservative constitutional scholars like Bork, Scalia, or their students, there is plenty of writing out there to educate him.   Dave is exactly like a smug anti-Christian or anti-Islam bigot who cherry picks ancient texts to find phrases or passages that are problematic by todays standards, and then presents these passages as proof of his own philosophical superiority.   I suppose he's jealous of his successful and dynamic brother to the south.

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:12 PM Forum: Politics

It's Befitting He's Swearing In Amy...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

He reported the Founders’ view of the Constitution as a framework, not an eternal truth. It was intended to change over time. 
And it has.  Bigly.  

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:26 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Jim, I'm curious. What has occurred to erode your confidence in a Biden victory?
Hi Darian:

Erode is a good word, I still think Biden wins, but it is an interesting question.  These are not ranked, just thoughts in the order I'm thinking them:

1.  The polls are tightening in the swing states.
2.  I can't bring myself to believe that states like Georgia are actually leaning Biden, so I have less confidence in the polls.
3.  Although D's are leading the early vote in some states, they always do and the margins are perhaps worse that HRC enjoyed, this is unclear though.
4.  I have seen articles suggesting that the Rs are winning the new registration battles in certain states, but still unclear.
5.  I think that Hunter's laptop is a problem for Biden, and in particular Twitter and Facebook etc. suppression of  the laptop story is a problem for Biden.
6.  I think it comes down to Pennsylvania, and there have been stories from people in Pennsylvania that suggest Trump has not lost support there.
7.  My wife reiterated the other day that she was annoyed by the press pinning the Corona deaths on Trump. (she listens to NPR mostly) 
8.  This one is borderline silly, but with each story about a rapper coming out in support of Trump, I wonder if unanticipated black support for Trump is actually happening in the black urban communities.

I see the race going two ways - either the polling is more or less correct and Trump loses GA, NC, FL, AZ, maybe OH and so on - a Biden blow-out.   Or The polls are just wrong enough that Trump wins FL, OH, NC and it all comes down to PA.  I don't think Biden has helped himself in PA with the fracking comments.  I don't think riots in Philly right now help Biden either.  

We'll see on election night, maybe.  For sure if Biden wins in a blow out.  If it comes down to PA or PA and NC though, it could take weeks.  sad

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:37 PM Forum: Politics

It's Befitting He's Swearing In Amy...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer
and not for the better......between lawyers and bankers the Constitution has been chipped away at pretty much continually since its inception and NOT for the better.....
Hi Greg

What you posted right there is far too big a question to debate on an internet bulletin board!  It is a great question though.  

In certain instances the Constitution has been made to evolve to match the evolution of society.  Abortion is one thing, but to my mind the Commerce Clause is far more impactful.  Back in the day, interstate commerce was a mule train and river barge affair.  Now, interstate commerce is the foundation of an economy and society that was unimaginable in the 1780s.  The Constitution has been made to adapt pretty well.

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:40 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


The tipping point states like PA are close. Biden has a >5% polling average in PA, and if you assume a polling error as large as 2016, that erodes to 2%. This is more than enough to win PA, but still, 2% is not much margin. In other states like NV, MI, MN, and WI, Biden has a >7% polling average advantage, so it would take a huge error for Trump to win those states, but still not impossible. In total, most forecasts now have Trump with a 1 in 10 chance, and that is not zero. For example, if you were to flip a coming three times and it came up heads each time, you would probably be a bit surprised, but you would not say, "that's impossible!" The chances of that hypothetical coin-toss happening are about the same as most forecasts have for Trump winning. So, not impossible, but definitely an upset victory if he does pull it out.
Nate Silver was, as recently as this week anyway, leading off with the observation that the odds of a Trump win are about the same as the odds of rolling a 1 on any throw of a six-sided dice.  (Die?)  Anyway, that puts it into perspective pretty well.  Especially if Trump is gaining momentum this week on the ground.

Jim

October 29, 2020 03:49 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

Nate Silver was, as recently as this week anyway, leading off with the observation that the odds of a Trump win are about the same as the odds of rolling a 1 on any throw of a six-sided dice.  (Die?)  Anyway, that puts it into perspective pretty well.  Especially if Trump is gaining momentum this week on the ground.

Jim
Looks like Silver has mover more to a 1 in 10 forecast rather than a 1 in 6, but still.

Consider this graph from his web page (you'll have to scroll down a bit)  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

I have a tough time believing that IA, GA, FL, and NC are going blue.  If they do, it is a Biden landslide.  If they don't then it comes down to PA and one other state (AZ, NV?)  On 538's web page the states give data on this graphic if you hover over them.  Many "blue" states are effectively tied (IA, GA, FL, NC).  I have no problem believing that these states will vote Trump.  I think that some Trump voters are less likely reveal themselves to pollsters. I know that the pollsters are trying to quantify and compensate for this, but as James said, they don't have to be off by much...

Jim 

October 29, 2020 03:51 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey

let's say Trump wins, but Democrats retake the Senate. Whoo-boy! That will be a show to watch. 
Yikes, so true.  Personally, I'd much rather have a D White House and R Senate!

October 29, 2020 03:54 PM Forum: Politics

Amy Barrett learns of her true place in History....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll



...and, for your information, the Supreme Court has roundly rejected prior restraint! Let's not forget Dude that keeping wildlife, um... an amphibious rodent, for... um, ya know domestic... within the city... that ain't legal either.
Brilliant!  cool