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Posts Made By: James Brown

October 29, 2020 04:06 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Here is another extremely cool interactive web page on 538:  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/

I would encourage everyone to mess around with it.  The map starts with the current 538 forecast (89/11) in favor of Biden.  But you can make a change to see how the actual model reacts.  This is not just moving EC votes from column A to column B, since the polling errors, if they exist are interrelated across some states according to the model.  For example, if you select Trump winning PA, then the model makes adjustments to AZ, NC and FL such that just by Trump winning PA his chances go up to 66% of winning the election according to the 538 model.  

This is at worst an amazingly well done web page!  You won't have to take 40 minutes.  3 or 4 will do.  Note the reset button on the upper right.

I hope this conversation does not make Russ puke up his breakfast!

Jim

October 29, 2020 04:14 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown
I hope this conversation does not make Russ puke up his breakfast!

Jim
Ok, I'm a sucker for data and modeling.  Consider this; I used the 538 prediction tool and set Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia as Trump wins.  This is contrary to current polls, but plausible right?  In that instance the 538 model shows the race as a 49/49 tossup.  See here:  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/#OH:1,NC:1,GA:1,FL:1   (Give the model 10 seconds or so to crunch the numbers...)

If that doesn't make Russ puke, nothing will.

Jim

October 29, 2020 04:36 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Trump under polls because there are people that are embarrassed or ashamed to tell a pollster they are voting for Trump. What does that tell you? This isn’t over.
Hi Russ:

I took a raft of poo for my 2016 vote from my sisters in law and I did not like it at all.  If I were to vote for Trump this time, I wouldn't tell anyone in my family, but not for the reasons you suspect.  Embarrassment or shame would have nothing to do with it.  Who wants to explain the logic and personal value underpinnings of a difficult vote to some smug, judgmental, holier-than-thou, family members over and over and over again?    Who wants to deal with the snide remarks when telling the whole lot to simply go to hell is not a viable option?

I think my personal story extrapolates to the lion's share of Trump voters in flyover country pretty well.  I know that pollsters are not family, but the pressure is there.

Jim

October 29, 2020 05:39 PM Forum: Politics

It's Befitting He's Swearing In Amy...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Not for people like Amy or Clarence...
Hi Rod:  

You are of course missing a huge point.  Two of them in fact.  Point 1 - It is impossible to predict what sort of Justice ACB will turn out to be.  Point 2 - If anything, ACB is a student of Scalia's.  Scalia and Thomas approach(ed) the Constitution in very different ways, even though both are generally grouped as conservatives or originalists.  Thomas does have some odd views, even in my opinion.  But lumping ACB and Thomas together is without merit, at least not yet.

I have not read this article, so I don't know if it is any good or not.  It purports to explore the critical differences between Thomas and Scalia's jurisprudence, differences that are well known among conservatives and legal scholars but ignored by the press:

https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/two-kinds-of-originalism

Jim

October 29, 2020 06:29 PM Forum: Politics

It's Befitting He's Swearing In Amy...

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

 squiggy 
That's pretty funny!

October 29, 2020 10:14 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

he definitely doesn't sound like a candidate whose defeat is inevitable. smile
Hi Darian:

If Trump is confident that he can win FL, OH, GA and NC like last time, then this race could very well be a toss-up.  Did you mess around with the link I posted earlier?  It is surprising to me how close the race might be - if the polls are off again.

Jim

October 30, 2020 04:07 PM Forum: Politics

Amy Barrett learns of her true place in History....

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

BTW, if you can't back up your Bullshit, try looking to someone who's smarter than you, not the Superhero from California.   

As far your earlier idiotic charge of libel goes, please bring on the lawsuit.  I welcome it!  tongue
Hi Rich:

Your libel was minor and Russ suffered no monetary damages, so we won't be suing.  Please rest easy.  wink

October 30, 2020 04:09 PM Forum: Politics

Every American who cares about our Future should watch this

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Jim, I'm sure it was an interesting link, but to be quite honest, I have about as much interest in poll numbers as I do virus numbers, which I'm sure you know is very little. The only number I'm interested in at this point is Trump getting the required electoral votes to win reelection.smile
Understood, it is a cool link though and demonstrates how close the race might actually be (probably 50/50) if your instincts are correct.

Jim

October 30, 2020 04:13 PM Forum: Politics

Post Election Civil Unrest

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

You know something dude, if any conservative called an Obama supporter a Chimpanzee, fools like yourself would be coming unglued and screaming racism.

I guess because you're a leftist tool, that kind of racist crap is ok?  
Rich:

Are you actually suggesting that Alfredo used a poorly chosen term that you deem to be a racist term?   That would be an odd position for you to take.  Unless you want to apologize to me for your melt down of a few weeks ago!

cool

October 30, 2020 04:27 PM Forum: Politics

"Originalist" Judges Decide Minnesota Voters Rights

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
The scenario: Two Republican electors go to the two Trump appointed Federal judges on their appellate court in order to block(what else is new)the voters from having their mailed-in ballots count if they arrive after the post marked date on the ballot even though they were mailed in on time. The two "originalist" judges approve the ban because "the constitution does not provide a pandemic exception." The third judge dissents to no avail.
There you have it, yup there's no pandemic exception in the constitution. Nevermind they didn't even know what a pandemic is when they wrote the constitution. How about pre-flight federal regulations requiring pre-flight inspections before you board your next flight. They're not in the constitution either. Better ban those, too...
Rod:

The critical question is this:  What does the law say in the applicable state?  

Your favorite source, CNN, says that the law in Minnesota is that ballots must be received by COB on election day.  (Same as Colorado by the way).

"The court found the Minnesota secretary of state's accommodation went against a state law that said ballots delivered by mail to elections officials after 8 p.m. on Election Day should be marked late.

"The Secretary's instructions to count mail-in ballots received up to seven days after Election Day stand in direct contradiction to Minnesota election law governing presidential elections," the ruling stated."


https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/politics/minnesota-mail-in-ballots/index.html


So it looks like we have a duly passed Minnesota law that says the ballots have to be received by COB on election day, but a rogue Secretary of State decided to unilaterally extend that window by a week.  I wonder what party that Secretary of State represents?

In this instance, your "originalist judges" are absolutely correct.  There is nothing in the Constitution that would cause this duly-passed Minnesota law to be unconstitutional.   So the law stands as written.  Score one for the "originalists."  I can imagine an activist judge might say something to the contrary, something along the lines of: "Hey, the plain language of the law is that the ballots have to be received by COB on election day.  But I, in my immense wisdom, am going to unilaterally suspend that law and overrule the legislature because of the pandemic."  

I hope you agree that this hypothetical would be inappropriate judicial activism.

Thanks for posting a very useful example.

Jim