Posts Made By: James Brown

Bush claimed in debate #3 that throughout Kerry's 20 years in congress, the Senator had only written 5 bills that passed through the legislative system to become law. Kerry said no, the number of bills I sponsored that became law is 56.

As you might suspect they were both wrong, or right, depending on how you define the key terms. FactCheck.org has a nice analysis of this point of discrepancy. FactCheck focuses on the gross number of bills, not the content.

http://www.factcheck.org/article282.html

What amazed me when reading the FactCheck article is the incomparably trivial nature of the legislation Kerry has actually drafted. He has apparently not sponsored a single bill of any national importance in his 20 years as a Senator.

From FactCheck:

“At the final presidential debate, Bush said Kerry had passed only five bills during his career, and Kerry said he had passed 56. Actually, we found eleven measures authored by Kerry have been signed into law, including a save-the-dolphins law, a law naming a federal building, a law giving a posthumous award to Jackie Robinson last year, and laws declaring "world population awareness weeks" in 1989 and 1991.”

Read the FactCheck article yourself, and draw your own conclusions. I should note that drafting important bills is only one of the many things a Senator does. On the other hand, sponsoring legislation is something I would expect a Senator who aspires to national leadership to do a lot of.

You will recall that I advocate voting for the party not the person. Thus the fact that Kerry has no legislative record shouldn't really matter. Still, I found the FactCheck article rather shocking. It seems fair to ask what Kerry has been doing for the last 20 years. My guess is studiously avoiding a record that might be used against him in a presidential race. - Jim -

p.s. here is Kerry's own link to Kerry's list of 56 sponsored "bills." I am surprised he posted it.

http://blog.johnkerry.com/rapidresponse/archives/003423.html#more

p.s.s. I guess the bill to protect dolphins is of national importance. I don't want my post to be misconstrued as advocating injury to dolphins. I too like dolphins and only eat dolphin safe tuna! - Jim -

http://www.factcheck.org/article283.html

I also heard Kerry on the radio this morning insinuating that Bush will be reinstating the draft (over the 402-2 dead body vote of the House I guess 8O .)

I expect that the battleground states will see a lot more of these bogus scare tactic ads from the left and the right directed to the young, the old, the minorities, the religious right etc. It is sad if bogus scare tactics play well with the uninformed. Caveat Emptor! - Jim -

Is it possible that the World Series will actually be Houston v. Boston? A perfect parallel to you know what! Good v. evil! Right v. wrong! We can only hope and pray! - Jim -

One day, President Bush visited an elementary school. All the kids were so excited to get to meet the President. One of the classes was in the middle of a discussion about words and their meanings. The teacher asked the president if he would like to lead the discussion on the word "tragedy."

So, the illustrious leader asked the class for an example of a "tragedy."

"Well," one girl replied, "If my mommy ran over my dog, Rover, that would be a tragedy!"

The President smiled at the little girl and said, "No, sweetie. That would be an accident! Can anyone else give it a try?"

A little boy sitting across the room raised his hand and said, "I know! I know! If our bus driver ran off of a cliff and killed everyone!"

The President shook his head and said, "No son. That would be a great loss!"

The room went silent, no other child volunteered. Bush searched the room, "Isn't there someone who can give me an example of a tragedy?" Finally at the back of the room a small boy raised his hand.

In a quiet voice he said "Well, Mr. President, if you and Laura were on Air Force One and it was hit by a "friendly fire" missile and blown to smithereens, that would be a tragedy."

"Fantastic!" exclaimed Bush. "That's right. And can you tell me why that would be a tragedy?"

"Well," says the boy, it has to be a tragedy, because it certainly wouldn't be a great loss, and it probably wouldn't be an accident either."

- Jim -

These guys were at it just behind our house this morning, right before sunrise. The light was a bit low and I had no tripod, so it is a bit shaky. Shot from our bedroom window with a Canon 300D and Tamron lens.

- Jim -

The final Battleground tracking poll is out.

http://www.tarrance.com/files/Week7charts.pdf

It shows a very consistent Bush lead. If this poll is correct, it could translate into a sizable E.V. win for the incumbent.

I find a comparison of page 2 with page 9 to be interesting and entertaining. If the pollster simply asked "who are you going to vote for?" (without naming names) the final numbers are:

Bush 46%
Kerry 41%
Undecided 12%
Other 1%

On the other hand, if the pollster names the candidates the final numbers are:

Bush 50%
Kerry 45%
Undecided 5%

Apparently 7% of likely voters can't think up the candidate's names under the pressure of a phone survey. 8O

I acknowledge that the conventional wisdom is that undecideds break for the challenger, but if page 9 is correct, Kerry will need to get 100% of the remaining undecideds 8)

Note that Bush may have the 5% lead that Patrick and Jeremy discussed last week.

Also, in my humble opinion Bush has an easier time carrying the electoral college in a race where Kerry barely wins or statistically ties the popular vote. Bush has an edge in this regard because he will win more "little" states that have a slightly disproportionate share of electoral votes.

By the way, Battleground is a generally well regarded bi-partisan effort. The final national tracking poll results from this group over the last three elections are:

1992
Bush projected 37
Bush actual 37.45
Clinton projected 43
Clinton actual 43.01

1996
Dole projected 40
Dole actual 40.72
Clinton projected 49
Clinton actual 49.23

2000
Bush projected 49
Bush actual 47.23
Gore projected 47
Gore actual 48.23

- Jim -

p.s. Check out those Bush job approval numbers (page 8). I am forced to conclude that over 1/2 of the likely voters in this country would be considered neo-con morons by the majority of the regular posters on this forum. - Jim -

OK guys and gals. On the eve of the U.S. election let's have some put your money on the table type predictions. None of this "it's going to be close" stuff. We all know that! Feel free to play too Don, Maurice and Jarno.

I predict W wins the electoral college 281-257. I also predict that the popular vote breaks out as follows:

GWB 48.7%
JFK 46.5%
Others 4.8%

I'm really looking forward to the returns tomorrow night. I'm sure I'll post at you then! - Jim -

"Stanford Predicts" is a Non-Partisan group that claims to be "solely interested in predicting the likelihood of either candidate winning, for purely scientific purposes." They predict (as of this afternoon):

Likelihood of Bush getting more than 270 Electoral Votes: 84.02%

Likelihood of Kerry getting more than 270 Electoral Votes: 14.79%

on edit: see updated numbers in next post

Gotta like them odds!

The sheer volume of the polls these guys have incorporated into their analysis has to be seen to be believed.

But what about the anticipated unprecedented turnout among first time voters and cell phone only users, you say?....

Well, I guess that is what Kerry has to hang his hat on...

More info on the statistical methodology used by this group can be found here:

http://www.stanford.edu/group/predict2004/

- Jim -

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/exit_polls_what.html

I remember the early exit polls in Colorado two years ago showing Ted Strickland up on Wayne Allard by an "insurmountable" 10+ points. Guess who is a senator now?

A Kerry win would not surprise me. An early Kerry win would. - Jim -

Even CBS has not taken that flyer. I feel good, like I knew that I would...

I do have to go look at the Cuyahoga county data before it's officially lights out time...

- James -

five minute later: Cuyahoga county is 90% reported. Looking pretty good for W.