Will we be in Iran next year?Posted By Timothy Iafolla |
I haven't seen this scenario discussed but it seems fairly plausible. Here it is, what do you think?
The Iraqi elections are successful, and over the course of the next 6 to 12 months we get our wish and Iraq starts to quiet down...fewer insurgent attacks, enough Iraqi police and militia become trained to start keeping the peace between the various factions, and a viable civil government starts to assert itself. So we pull out the bulk of our troops and send them home, leaving in place a few hundred military advisers and a few thousand civilian contractors.
A month later Iran, seeing its neighbor barely controlled by a weak Western proxy government, rumbles over the border with a few thousand tanks, an air force, and a half million or so infantry. Remember that we have left Iraq with no military command structure, and no tanks, artillery, air force, or arms industry.
So Iran successfully invades. Some of our citizens are killed during the invasion, the bulk are held hostage.
What happens next? Do we have the will to act militarily, and if so, do we have the military strength immediately available to repel the invasion and dismantle Iran's army? Keep in mind that Iran has LOTS of chemical weapons and possibly nukes.
I'm just thinking about yet another set of consequences that Bush may have set in motion when he chose to invade Iraq. Or am I all wet that this is a plausible scenario?
Tim Iafolla
The Iraqi elections are successful, and over the course of the next 6 to 12 months we get our wish and Iraq starts to quiet down...fewer insurgent attacks, enough Iraqi police and militia become trained to start keeping the peace between the various factions, and a viable civil government starts to assert itself. So we pull out the bulk of our troops and send them home, leaving in place a few hundred military advisers and a few thousand civilian contractors.
A month later Iran, seeing its neighbor barely controlled by a weak Western proxy government, rumbles over the border with a few thousand tanks, an air force, and a half million or so infantry. Remember that we have left Iraq with no military command structure, and no tanks, artillery, air force, or arms industry.
So Iran successfully invades. Some of our citizens are killed during the invasion, the bulk are held hostage.
What happens next? Do we have the will to act militarily, and if so, do we have the military strength immediately available to repel the invasion and dismantle Iran's army? Keep in mind that Iran has LOTS of chemical weapons and possibly nukes.
I'm just thinking about yet another set of consequences that Bush may have set in motion when he chose to invade Iraq. Or am I all wet that this is a plausible scenario?
Tim Iafolla