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Posts Made By: Dave Snope

October 7, 2009 04:26 AM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Long-term Arctic Ice Variability Records Available

Posted By Dave Snope

Long-Term Ice Variability in Arctic Marginal Seas

IGOR V. POLYAKOV,* GENRIKH V. ALEKSEEV,1 ROMAN V. BEKRYAEV,*1 UMA S. BHATT,* ROGER COLONY,*
MARK A. JOHNSON,# VALERII P. KARKLIN,1 DAVID WALSH,* AND ALEXANDER V. YULIN1
*International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska
1Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russia
#Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska
(Manuscript received 6 August 2002, in final form 2 December 2002)

ABSTRACT
Examination of records of fast ice thickness (1936–2000) and ice extent (1900–2000) in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas provide evidence that long-term ice thickness and extent trends are small and generally not statistically significant, while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the long-term tendencies due to large-amplitude low-frequency variability.




Conclusions

In recent decades, large-scale changes have been observed
throughout the Arctic atmosphere–ice–ocean
system, sparking discussion as to whether these changes
are episodic events, or long-term shifts in the Arctic
environment. The lack of long-term observations in the
Arctic makes it impossible to reach a definitive conclusion.
Long-term records are now available due to recently
released Russian ice observations from the Siberian
marginal-ice zone.

Examination of records of fast ice thickness and ice
extent from four Arctic marginal seas (Kara, Laptev,
East Siberian, and Chukchi) indicates that long-term
trends are small and generally statistically insignificant,
while trends for shorter records are not indicative of the
long-term tendencies due to strong low-frequency variability
in these time series, which places a strong limitation
on our ability to resolve long-term trends. Ice
variability in the Arctic marginal-ice zone is dominated
by the multidecadal LFO and, to a lesser degree, by
decadal fluctuations. This variability is complicated by
geographical differences: the LFO signal decays eastward,
and is strongest in the Kara Sea, whereas in the
Chukchi Sea, ice-extent and fast ice variability is dominated
by decadal fluctuations, and there is no evidence
of the LFO. This is consistent with the Arctic SAT/NAO
index correlation pattern, which shows maximum correlation
in the near-Atlantic region, decaying toward the
North Pacific.

Correlation analysis shows that dynamical forcing
(wind or surface currents) is at least of the same order
of importance as thermodynamical forcing for the iceextent
variability in the Laptev, East Siberian, and
Chukchi Seas. Prevailing easterly winds over the Chukchi
Sea cannot contribute much to ice advection across
the open boundary, but surface currents provide an effective
mechanism of ice transport from the sea into the
central Arctic Ocean. In the Kara Sea, thermodynamical
factors outweigh dynamical factors in controlling iceextent
variability. This analysis implies that deficiencies
of present-day models, such as the oversimplification of
ice dynamics, make simulation of fundamental ice–albedo
feedback most difficult.

Acknowledgments. This project was supported by
grants from the International Arctic Research Center,
University of Alaska, Fairbanks, and the National Science
Foundation’s Office Of Polar Programs
(#9806926). We thank the Frontier Research System for
Global Change (FRSGC) for financial support.

http://www.frontier.iarc.uaf.edu/~igor/research/pdf/ice.pdf

October 7, 2009 07:10 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

How Badly are the Media Lying on GW? Example:

Posted By Dave Snope

If you still believe that there is even a small level of journalistic integrity left in the media on climate change, this should end it.

When two German merchant ships navigated the Northeast Passage last month, the newspapers gave us this:

The Independent:, "No commercial vessel has ever successfully travelled the North-east Passage"

The Independent headline: "A Triumph for man, a disaster for mankind" ... "A vivid sign of climate change in the arctic"

The Times: "the voyage was considered impossible until a few years ago."

It was all about man-caused global warming.

But, the truth is that ships have been navigating this passage almost continuously for a long, long time. Here are just a few examples:

During the war US-built lend-lease vessels, including liberty ships handed over to the Soviets, made 120 voyages with cargoes from the American west coast via the Bering Strait to northern ports, following routes similar to that followed by the Beluga fleet. Navigation by Soviet vessels continued after the war but, in the early stages of the Cold War, the route was closed to Western vessels – not by ice but by politics.

The first offer to open the Northern Sea Route to international shipping was made early in 1967, when it was argued that it could save thirteen days between Hamburg and Yokohama as opposed to the conventional link via Suez. To demonstrate the viability of the route, Soviet cargo carriers made three demonstration voyages from north European ports and Japan.

Twenty years later, the USSR was shifting its economic enterprises to a self-financing system. In 1989 shipments between western Europe and Japan were made in the new generation of SA-15 freighters, one on charter to a German firm.

Grain shipments from Vancouver to Arctic ports were continuing up to 1992, when the Ivan Bogin cleared Vancouver on 27 August 1992 for Murmansk.

In 1991 there were fifteen such voyages with 210,000 tons of cargo (one pictured above). That year, the Northern Sea Route was again declared open to foreign shipping.

http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2009/09/pictures-tell-story.html

October 8, 2009 05:36 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Stanford Univ. Doesnt Want You To See This Video

Posted By Dave Snope

Stanford University has banned a skeptical documentary film from airing a climate change interview with one of its prominent warming activist professors, Stephen Schneider. After legal threats from Stanford University -- apparently on behalf of Prof. Schneider -- the documentary filmmakers were forced to use a blank screen and an actor had to read the transcript of Schneider's already taped but legally banned climate interview. The skeptical global warming documentary “Not Evil Just Wrong”, set for its international premier on October 18, 2009, interviewed Schneider about his flip-flop from a coming ice age proponent in the 1970s to his current advocacy of man-made global warming fears. Schneider is a professor of biological sciences at Stanford University. (email: [email protected])

Irish filmmaker Phelim McAleer told Climate Depot: “Lawyers for Stanford University have tried to ban our documentary from reporting on how one of their professors previously predicted an imminent ice-age, but is now a leading global warming advocate.” (Schneider joins others like Obama Science Czar John Holdren. See: Climate Depot's Factsheet on 1970s Coming 'Ice Age' Claims -- 'Fears of a coming ice age, showed up in peer-reviewed literature, at scientific conferences, by prominent scientists and throughout the media')

To watch the “banned” video excerpt from “Not Evil Just Wrong” of an actor portraying Schneider's interview click here.

Climate Depot has obtained a copy of Stanford University's legal letter prohibiting the Irish filmmakers from airing Schneider's already taped interview in which he was questioned about his inconvenient conversion from a global cooling advocate in the 1970s to a present day global warming activist.

'You are prohibited'

Stanford University sent a scathing letter to the documentary makers declaring: “You are prohibited from using any of the Stanford footage you shot, including your interview of Professor Stephen Schneider. Professor Schneider likewise has requested that I inform you that he has withdrawn any permission for you to use his name, likeness or interview in connection with any film project you may undertake.”

'Removed from your footage'

The Stanford letter concluded: “Please confirm to me in writing that you have received and will comply with Stanford's directive that all shots of Stanford University (both indoors and outdoors) and all parts of Professor Schneider's interview will be removed from your footage. We appreciate your prompt attention to this matter."

Climate Depot has also obtained the exclusive pre-release video and the transcript of Schneider's interview which Stanford University lawyers deemed too hot for broadcast. McAleer called on Stanford to withdraw the legal threat which has forced the filmmakers to use a blank screen and an actor's voice to read the text of Professor Schneider's interview about his changing climate positions.

“The lawyers at Stanford sent the unprecedented letter after we asked Schneider about his flip-flopping on climate alarmism,” the film's director McAleer explained. McAleer said he is shocked at the legal maneuvering by Stanford to censor an interview with one of their most prominent professors.

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/3212/Inconvenient-Questions-Stanford-U-Bans-Climate-Film-from-Airing-Interview-with-Cooling-turned-Warming-Prof-Stephen-Schneider--You-are-prohibited

November 3, 2009 03:26 PM Forum: Politics

Bear Kill Terrorists

Posted By Dave Snope

It couldn't have happened to nicer guys. While the Beeb characteristically spins this into a wildlife story, this should be a Darwin Award story about how four terroris..., errr, I mean militants, errr, four stooges who decide to make pudding in a bear's den.

BBC News, Srinagar

A bear killed two militants after discovering them in its den in Indian-administered Kashmir, police say.

Two other militants escaped, one of them badly wounded, after the attack in Kulgam district, south of Srinagar.

The militants were armed with AK-46s but were taken by surprise - police found the remains of pudding they had made to eat when the bear attacked.

It is thought to be the first such incident since Muslim separatists took up arms against Indian rule in 1989.

Bodies found

The militants had made their hideout in a cave which was actually the bear's den, said police officer Farooq Ahmed.

The dead have been identified as Mohammad Amin alias Qaiser, and Bashir Ahmed alias Saifullah.

News of the attack emerged when their injured comrade went to a nearby village for treatment.

"Word spread in the village that Qaiser had been killed by the bear," another police officer said.

A joint party of the police and army personnel went into the forest and collected the bodies of the two militants.

Police say they also recovered two AK-46 rifles and some ammunition from the hideout.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8339549.stm

No estimate is available on how many innocent Hindu villager lives were saved by the heroic bruin.

Sorry, terrorists, this is the kind of activity best left for followers of a different religion.



November 4, 2009 03:03 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

CNN Still Pushing Debunked Kilimanjaro AGW Melting

Posted By Dave Snope

As Copenhagen nears, the media are pulling out all the stops to push us towards global redistribution of wealth.

From CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/11/02/kilimanjaro.glaciers/index.html
The ice and snow that cap majestic Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania are vanishing before our eyes.

If current conditions persist, climate change experts say, Kilimanjaro's world-renowned glaciers, which have covered Africa's highest peak for centuries, will be gone within the next two decades.

"In a very real sense, these glaciers are being decapitated from the surface down," said Lonnie Thompson, professor of earth sciences at Ohio State University. Thompson is co-author of a study on Kilimanjaro published Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study's authors blame the disappearing ice on increases in global temperatures and diminished snowfall at Kilimanjaro's summit.


Kilimanjaro's glaciers have been retreating steadily since well back into the 19th century, long before CO2 began rising and 100 years before claims of temperature hockey sticks began.

Recent data from Kilimanjaro show temperatures on the 19,340-foot volcano never rise above freezing. So melting triggered by a warmer atmosphere can't be the reason the small summit ice sheet is retreating about 3 feet a year, said Georg Kaser, co-author of the new article and a glaciologist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria.

November 20, 2009 08:15 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Hockey Stick Mann Implicated in AGW Conspiracy

Posted By Dave Snope

It looks like an inside whistle blower has done in whatever credibility remains in the AGW "science" circles by releasing their email files. (They will tell you over and over it was a "crime" by a "hacker").


http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100017393/climategate-the-final-nail-in-the-coffin-of-anthropogenic-global-warming/

If you own any shares in alternative energy companies I should start dumping them NOW. The conspiracy behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming myth (aka AGW; aka ManBearPig) has been suddenly, brutally and quite deliciously exposed after a hacker broke into the computers at the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (aka Hadley CRU) and released 61 megabites of confidential files onto the internet. (Hat tip: Watts Up With That)

When you read some of those files – including 1079 emails and 72 documents – you realise just why the boffins at Hadley CRU might have preferred to keep them confidential. As Andrew Bolt puts it, this scandal could well be “the greatest in modern science”. These alleged emails – supposedly exchanged by some of the most prominent scientists pushing AGW theory – suggest:

Conspiracy, collusion in exaggerating warming data, possibly illegal destruction of embarrassing information, organised resistance to disclosure, manipulation of data, private admissions of flaws in their public claims and much more.

One of the alleged emails has a gentle gloat over the death in 2004 of John L Daly (one of the first climate change sceptics, founder of the Still Waiting For Greenhouse site), commenting:

“In an odd way this is cheering news.”

But perhaps the most damaging revelations – the scientific equivalent of the Telegraph’s MPs’ expenses scandal – are those concerning the way Warmist scientists may variously have manipulated or suppressed evidence in order to support their cause.

November 24, 2009 10:37 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

CEI Files Notice of Intent to Sue NASA GISS

Posted By Dave Snope

Strike while the iron is hot. Errr, hotTER, that is.

Today, on behalf of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, I filed three Notices of Intent to File Suit against NASA and its Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), for those bodies’ refusal – for nearly three years – to provide documents requested under the Freedom of Information Act.

The information sought is directly relevant to the exploding “ClimateGate” scandal revealing document destruction, coordinated efforts in the U.S. and UK to avoid complying with both countries’ freedom of information laws, and apparent and widespread intent to defraud at the highest levels of international climate science bodies. Numerous informed commenters had alleged such behavior for years, all of which appears to be affirmed by leaked emails, computer codes and other data from the Climatic Research Unit of the UK’s East Anglia University.

All of that material and that sought for years by CEI go to the heart of the scientific claims and campaign underpinning the Kyoto Protocol, its planned successor treaty, “cap-and-trade” legislation and the EPA’s threatened regulatory campaign to impose similar measures through the back door.

CEI sought the following documents, among others, NASA’s failure to provide which within thirty days will prompt CEI to file suit in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia:

- internal discussions about NASA’s quiet correction of its false historical U.S. temperature records after two Canadian researchers discovered a key statistical error, specifically discussion about whether and why to correct certain records, how to do so, the impact or wisdom or potential (or real) fallout therefrom or reaction to doing so (requested August 2007);

- internal discussions relating to the emails sent to James Hansen and/or Reto A. Ruedy from Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre calling their attention to the errors in NASA/GISS online temperature data (August 2007);

- those relating to the content, importance or propriety of workday-hour posts or entries by GISS/NASA employee Gavin A. Schmidt on the weblog or “blog” RealClimate, which is owned by the advocacy Environmental Media Services and was started as an effort to defend the debunked “Hockey Stick” that is so central to the CRU files. RealClimate.org is implicated in the leaked files, expressly offered as a tool to be used “in any way you think would be helpful” to a certain advocacy campaign, including an assertion of Schmidt’s active involvement in, e.g., delaying and/or screening out unhelpful input by “skeptics” attempting to comment on claims made on the website.

This and the related political activism engaged in are inappropriate behavior for a taxpayer-funded employee, particularly on taxpayer time. These documents were requested in January 2007 and NASA/GISS have refused to date to comply with their legal obligation to produce responsive documents.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/24/cei-files-notice-of-intent-to-sue-nasa-giss/#more-13153

November 27, 2009 05:01 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Obama's Science Czar in ClimateGate

Posted By Dave Snope

John Holden, Obama's Science Czar, used his powerful post at Harvard to publicly ridicule the findings of scientists who supported the Medieval Warming Period in the temperature record. An email exchange between Holden and Michael Mann is contained in the ClimateGate records, in which Holden presents for Mann's "entertainment" the use of his political power to diminish the careers of colleagues whose science doesn't support Holden's radical world view.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/17183

Holden is of couse, infamous for pushing apocalyptic global cooling before he pushed apocalyptic global warming; infamous for saying that global warming deniers should be tried for 'crimes against humanity'; infamous for pushing the concept of compulsory abortion for women to control population, and infamous for pushing for a 'comprehensive Planetary Regime' that would control the world's resources, direct redistribution of wealth, world taxation, and control a world army. With guys like Holden and Gore in charge of such an Orwellian world, why not?

When Obama appointed this self-described neo-Malthusiasn to his new position, he said it was for "ensuring that facts and evidence are never twisted or obscured by politics or ideology."

November 27, 2009 07:09 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

Obama's Climate Czar Rejects ClimateGate

Posted By Dave Snope

Obama administration climate czar Carol Browner on Wednesday rejected claims that e-mails stolen from a British university show climate scientists trumped up global warming numbers, saying she considers the science settled.

She apparently believes that science is proven by consensus: when a reporter followed up, she said she will stick with the consensus of the 2,500 climate scientists on the International Panel on Climate Change who concluded global warming is happening and is most likely being pushed by human actions.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/25/climate-czar-says-e-mails-dont-change-anything/

I guess that she turns a blind eye to the fact that only a handful of scientists and politicians wrote the IPCC consensus (dominated by ClimateGate members), who then added the names of 2500 to it even though many do not agree with the IPCC findings.

Of course, this is not surprising as it fits her radical socialist views. Carol was listed as one of 14 leaders of a socialist group's Commission for a Sustainable World Society, which calls for "global governance" and says rich countries must shrink their economies to address climate change.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/12/obama-climate-czar-has-socialist-ties/


But then, even when you are a socialist, it's convenient to put you own capital gains ahead of science when you sit on the board of a major carbon credit trading company and stand to make money from a cap'n'tax bill that would send her stock through the roof:
Santa Clara, CA - March 10, 2008 - APX, Inc., the leading infrastructure provider for environmental and energy markets, announced today that Carol Browner, former Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has joined its Board of Directors. Ms. Browner, who has a distinguished career in public service, brings to APX's Board deep expertise in environmental policy, including climate change issues.
Said Ms. Browner: “... I look forward to helping them capitalize on the full potential of these markets.”

http://www.apx.com/news/pr-Carol-Browner-Joins-APX-Board.asp


What do you get when you give a socialist the position to capitalize on their powers over others? Haven't the world seen enough tragedy from that?

November 27, 2009 07:21 PM Forum: Global Warming - REAL or NOT

IPCC claims innapropriate to show temp. decline

Posted By Dave Snope

Steve McIntyre writes: One reviewer of the IPCC 2007 Assessment Report specifically asked IPCC not to hide the decline. The reviewer stated very clearly:

Show the Briffa et al reconstruction through to its end; don’t stop in 1960. Then comment and deal with the “divergence problem” if you need to. Don’t cover up the divergence by truncating this graphic. This was done in IPCC TAR; this was misleading (comment ID #: 309-18)

The IPCC said that it would be “inappropriate to show recent section of Briffa et al. series“.

Here is a graphic showing the deleted data in red.


You can see why they would think it is inappropriate. It does not show any warming.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/26/mcintyre-data-from-the-hide-the-decline/