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Posts Made By: Paul Kammueller

May 12, 2003 07:56 AM Forum: Investment Discussions

May 13, 2003 08:40 PM Forum: Investment Discussions

Interest rate gambling

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Anyone here into inverse funds? Dabble just a little now and then. Don't feel comfortable about the stock market's direction right now but it seems to me now that the long bond has rallied into never-never land.

Just bought some of the Rydex Juno inverse treasury fund (blue line, here plotted against the opposite bond fund, the green line) -- essentially this is placing a bet that interest rates will rise.

If I'm right and interest rates rise I'll make money. If I'm wrong and the long rates crash, I'll lose money but can more than make up the loss by refinancing my mortgage with the unexpectedly low rates. How's that for a hedging strategy? :-)


May 15, 2003 09:51 AM Forum: Investment Discussions

Deflation Bogeyman

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Another reason for continuation is today's PPI number which fed the already rampant deflation rumors. The Fed is playing the bond market like a fiddle with its deflation - worry talk earlier this month. Personally, with the monetary base up 7.0% year-over-year I just don't see deflation happening.

May 16, 2003 10:43 AM Forum: Investment Discussions

LOCK!

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Just started my refi. Bond market is just outta hand, I got a 5.25% rate on a new 20-year mortgage!

Easy money.

May 19, 2003 03:57 PM Forum: DVDs and Music and Books That You Recommend

American Movie

Posted By Paul Kammueller

This is a little off the beaten path and without a doubt one of the most hilarious movies I have ever seen. It was done by Christ Smith ("Clerks", "Dogma", "Jay and Silent Bob Strike Back") but unlike his other films is not an acted, scripted thing, it's actually a documentary of this guy in Wisconsin trying to make a no-budget horror flick, using his family and friends as actors and production staff. Warning, lots of profanity, and some (very amusing) drug-related stories.

www.americanmovie.com

May 19, 2003 04:00 PM Forum: Investment Discussions

Hmmmmmmm

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Okay, the S&P500 and Nasdaq both fell out of a rising wedge today. This is usually considered a very bearish event. Anyone care to share their feelings?

May 22, 2003 12:25 PM Forum: Pictures of Me and My Telescope and........

16" newt-cass with nosy neighbors

Posted By Paul Kammueller

There's lots of kids in our neighborhood, they're lots of fun because they get all so curious when they see a big scope in the yard. They're kind of starting to recognize me as the neighborhood 'telescope man'. This is a 16" newtonian-cassegrain project I've been working on, the thing's a beast, set up here for an evening of tweaking and testing.



May 23, 2003 12:52 PM Forum: Religion

Re: Maybe this belongs in the Mind Twister Forum

Posted By Paul Kammueller

It would, if what one desired to believe had any bearing on what one actually believes.

There is a difference between saying you believe a thing in order to gain favor with a possibly-existing god, and truly in your heart of hearts actually believing a thing to be true.

The rational man knows that what his actual innermost belief really truly is, is not based upon a choice of what is 'safer' to believe -- or based upon what is more desirable to believe -- a true belief is not a choice as such: it is, simply, a conclusion that one reaches based on one's experience.

May 27, 2003 06:37 PM Forum: Religion

Re: Trans-Atlantic Gap

Posted By Paul Kammueller

I agree with you guys on the basic point of everyone being basically dependent on us to deal with things that nobody else can or will.

Really of course there's currently not much incentive for them to do otherwise. After all, most other nations as individuals do not have either the capacity or the incentive to compete militarily with an economic super-state like the U.S. (This could change over time if Europe continues its partial fusion over the next century). So they might as well rely on us instead.

If the U.S. pulled in its horns, I don't know if things would go 'to hell in a handbasket' but there would definitely be a phase of, uh, "adjustment" as everyone suddenly had to adjust, militarily and budgetarily, to defending their interests more assertively.

However, on the matter of being pro/anti-war (in a general way) and how the transatlantic gap reflects this, I think there is something different to consider: the nations on the other side of the atlantic have found themselves, almost routinely, to be battlegrounds for other people's wars. Is it any wonder that their mental image of war would be, well, less glorious than ours?

May 28, 2003 01:58 PM Forum: Religion

Where the $ comes from

Posted By Paul Kammueller

This seems to be totally missing from the discussion on tax cuts, etc. I find it interesting that people mentally treat tax cuts as money that is simply 'created', like it just sort of falls out of the sky into people's laps.

Let's talk for a minute about where the money for that tax-cut ultimately comes from. It's not an expenditure per se, but rather a decrease in government income, but the mathematical result is the same.

Now, most people are aware on some vague level that it's financed by the budget deficit. But what does that mean in the 'real' world? Well, it means the government has to go out and sell a treasury bond, out on the open market. So to get funding that does not come from taxes, the government has to go out on the open market and compete for it, compete against other investment options such as corporate bonds, municipal bond issues, and the stock market.

That means that for every dollar that comes out of the government income, a dollar has to come in from the capital markets, unless you fund dollar-for-dollar with spending cuts. In either case, we're just taking a nickel out of one pocket and sticking it in the other.