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NASA’s Next-Generation Asteroid Impact Monitoring System Goes Online

Posted by Guy Pirro 03/12/2022 09:56PM

This diagram shows the orbits of 2200 potentially hazardous objects as calculated by JPL’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). JPL manages NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, which tracks comets and asteroids that drift close to Earth's orbital neighborhood. A Near-Earth Object (NEO) is generally defined as an asteroid or comet that approaches our planet less than 1.3 times the distance from Earth to the Sun (the Earth-Sun distance is about 93 million miles). Most NEOs pose no peril at all. It’s the small percentage of Potentially Hazardous Asteroids that draws extra scrutiny. These objects are defined as those that approach Earth at less than half the Earth-Sun distance. Scientists and engineers are developing plans for warning systems and diversion tactics, just in case an asteroid should ever be found in an orbit that could endanger our planet. (Image Credit: NASA, JPL-Caltech)

NASA’s Next-Generation Asteroid Impact Monitoring System Goes Online

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are comets and asteroids that have been nudged by the gravitational attraction of nearby planets into orbits that allow them to enter the Earth’s neighborhood. Composed mostly of water ice with embedded dust particles, comets originally formed in the cold outer planetary system while most of the rocky asteroids formed in the warmer inner solar system between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. The scientific interest in comets and asteroids is due largely to their status as the relatively unchanged remnant debris from the solar system formation process some 4.6 billion years ago. The giant outer planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune) formed from an agglomeration of billions of comets and the left over bits and pieces from this formation process are the comets we see today. Likewise, today’s asteroids are the bits and pieces left over from the initial agglomeration of the inner planets that include Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars.

To date, nearly 28,000 Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) have been found by survey telescopes that continually scan the night sky, adding new discoveries at a rate of about 3000 per year. But as larger and more advanced survey telescopes turbo-charge the search over the next few years, a rapid uptick in discoveries is expected. In anticipation of this increase, NASA astronomers have developed a next-generation impact monitoring algorithm called Sentry-II to better evaluate NEA impact probabilities.

Popular culture often depicts asteroids as chaotic objects that zoom haphazardly around our solar system, changing course unpredictably and threatening our planet without a moment’s notice. This is not the reality. Asteroids are extremely predictable celestial bodies that obey the laws of physics and follow knowable orbital paths around the Sun.

But sometimes, those paths can come very close to Earth’s future position and, because of small uncertainties in asteroid positions, a future Earth impact cannot be completely ruled out. So, astronomers use sophisticated impact monitoring software to automatically calculate the impact risk.

Managed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California, the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) calculates every known NEA orbit to improve impact hazard assessments in support of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). CNEOS has monitored the impact risk posed by NEAs with software called Sentry, developed by JPL in 2002.

“The first version of Sentry was a very capable system that was in operation for almost 20 years,” said Javier Roa Vicens, who led the development of Sentry-II while working at JPL as a navigation engineer and recently moved to SpaceX. “It was based on some very smart mathematics: In under an hour, you could reliably get the impact probability for a newly discovered asteroid over the next 100 years – an incredible feat.”

But with Sentry-II, NASA has a tool that can rapidly calculate impact probabilities for all known NEAs, including some special cases not captured by the original Sentry. Sentry-II reports the objects of most risk in the CNEOS Sentry Table.

By systematically calculating impact probabilities in this new way, the researchers have made the impact monitoring system more robust, enabling NASA to confidently assess all potential impacts with odds as low as a few chances in 10 million.

Here is an overview of the different types of NEOs that are tracked by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies:

Asteroids

Asteroids are rocky fragments left over from the formation of the solar system about 4.6 billion years ago. Most asteroids orbit the sun in a belt between Mars and Jupiter. Scientists think there are probably millions of asteroids, ranging widely in size from hundreds of kilometers across to less than one kilometer (a little more than one-half mile) wide.

Occasionally, asteroids' orbital paths are influenced by the gravitational tug of planets, which cause their paths to alter. Scientists believe stray asteroids or fragments from earlier collisions have slammed into Earth in the past, playing a major role in the evolution of our planet.

Comets

Comets are relatively small, fragile, irregularly shaped bodies and, like asteroids, they are left over from the solar system formation process. Comets, however, are icy dirtballs that form in the outer solar system. The icy surface is embedded with dust, grit and particles from space.

Many comets have elliptical orbits that cut across the orbits of the planets, taking them very close to the sun and then swinging them far away, often past Pluto. The most distant comets may take more than 30 million years to complete one orbit. Comets with smaller orbital paths can take less than 200 years to orbit the sun, making them more predictable.

When far from the sun, comets are very cold, icy dirtballs. As they approach the sun, their surfaces begin to warm and volatile materials vaporize. The vaporizing gases carry small dust grains with them, which form an atmosphere of gas and dust and can look like a bright tail when seen from Earth.

Scientists believe that impacts from comets played a role in the evolution of Earth billions of years ago. One theory suggests that comets brought some of the water and a variety of organic molecules to the early Earth.

Near-Earth Objects

Some asteroids and comets follow orbital paths that take them much closer to the sun -- and therefore Earth -- than usual. If a comet or asteroid's approach brings it to within 1.3 astronomical units of the sun, we call it a near-Earth object. [One astronomical unit is close to the mean distance between the sun and Earth – approximately 150 million kilometers (about 93 million miles).] Near-Earth objects may provide needed raw materials for future interplanetary exploration. Some should also be fairly easy to land on for future exploration.

Potentially Hazardous Objects

A relatively small number of near-Earth objects pass close enough to Earth and are large enough in size to warrant close observation. That's because the gravitational tug of the planets could, over time, cause an object's orbital path to evolve into an Earth-crossing orbit. This allows for the possibility of a future collision.

Potentially hazardous asteroids are about 150 meters (almost 500 feet) or larger, roughly twice as big as the Statue of Liberty is tall. They approach Earth's orbit to within 7.5 million kilometers (about 4.6 million miles). By comparison, when Mars and Earth are at their closest, they are about 53 million kilometers (about 33 million miles) apart. Potentially hazardous comets also get unusually close to Earth.

Knowing the size, shape, mass, composition and structure of these objects helps determine the best way to divert one, should it have an Earth-threatening path.

Meteors and Meteorites

While traveling through space, asteroids sometimes collide with each other and break up into smaller fragments. Comets shed dust as they roam the solar system. These 'break ups' result in numerous small particles and fragments, called meteoroids, which orbit the sun.

Most meteoroids are small and rocky. When one approaches Earth, it burns up as it goes through Earth's atmosphere. Thus a meteor, or shooting star, is formed.

Fireballs are larger meteoroids, roughly ranging in size anywhere from a basketball to a Volkswagen. They also make very impressive sky displays as they break into fragments and burn up in their passage through Earth's atmosphere.

Some meteoroids survive passage through Earth's atmosphere and hit the ground. These are called meteorites.

Special Cases

As an asteroid travels through the solar system, the Sun’s gravitational pull dictates the path of its orbit, and the gravity of the planets will also tug at its trajectory in predictable ways. Sentry modeled to a high precision how these gravitational forces shaped an asteroid’s orbit, helping to predict where it will be far into the future. But it couldn’t account for non-gravitational forces, the most significant being the thermal forces caused by the Sun’s heat.

As an asteroid spins, sunlight heats the object’s dayside. The heated surface will then rotate to the asteroid’s shaded night side and cool down. Infrared energy is released as it cools, generating a tiny yet continual thrust on the asteroid. This phenomenon is known as the Yarkovsky effect, which has little influence on the asteroid’s motion over short periods but can significantly change its path over decades and centuries.

“The fact that Sentry couldn’t automatically handle the Yarkovsky effect was a limitation,” said Davide Farnocchia, a navigation engineer at JPL who also helped develop Sentry-II. “Every time we came across a special case – like asteroids Apophis, Bennu, or 1950 DA – we had to do complex and time-consuming manual analyses. With Sentry-II, we don’t have to do that anymore.”

Another issue with the original Sentry algorithm was that it sometimes couldn’t accurately predict the impact probability of asteroids that undergo extremely close encounters with Earth. The motion of these NEAs gets significantly deflected by our planet’s gravity, and the post-encounter orbital uncertainties can grow dramatically. In those cases, the old Sentry’s calculations could fail, requiring manual intervention. Sentry-II doesn’t have that limitation.

“In terms of numbers, the special cases we’d find were a very tiny fraction of all the NEAs that we’d calculate impact probabilities for,” said Roa Vicens. “But we are going to discover many more of these special cases when NASA’s planned NEO Surveyor mission and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile go online, so we need to be prepared.”

Many Needles, One Haystack

This is how impact probabilities are calculated: When telescopes track a new NEA, astronomers measure the asteroid’s observed positions in the sky and report them to the Minor Planet Center. CNEOS then uses that data to determine the asteroid’s most likely orbit around the Sun. But because there are slight uncertainties in the asteroid’s observed position, its “most likely orbit” might not represent its true orbit. The true orbit is somewhere inside an uncertainty region, like a cloud of possibilities surrounding the most likely orbit.

To assess whether an impact is possible and narrow down where the true orbit may be, the original Sentry would make some assumptions as to how the uncertainty region may evolve. It would then select a set of evenly spaced points along a line spanning the uncertainty region. Each point represented a slightly different possible current location of the asteroid.

Sentry would then wind the clock forward, watch those “virtual asteroids” orbit the Sun, and see if any came near Earth in the future. If so, further calculations would be required to “zoom in” to see whether any intermediate points might impact Earth, and if they did, estimate the impact probability.

Sentry-II has a different philosophy. The new algorithm models thousands of random points not limited by any assumptions about how the uncertainty region may evolve; instead, it selects random points throughout the entire uncertainty region. Sentry-II’s algorithm then asks: What are the possible orbits within the entire region of uncertainty that could hit Earth?

This way, the orbital determination calculations aren’t shaped by predetermined assumptions about which portions of the uncertainty region might lead to a possible impact. This allows Sentry-II to zero in on more very low probability impact scenarios, some of which Sentry may have missed.

Farnocchia likens the process to searching for needles in a haystack: The needles are possible impact scenarios, and the haystack is the uncertainty region. The more the uncertainty in an asteroid’s position, the bigger the haystack. Sentry would randomly poke at the haystack thousands of times looking for needles located near a single line stretching through the haystack. The assumption was that following this line was the best way of searching for needles. But Sentry-II assumes no line and instead throws thousands of tiny magnets randomly all over that haystack, which quickly get attracted to, and then find, the nearby needles.

“Sentry-II is a fantastic advancement in finding tiny impact probabilities for a huge range of scenarios,” said Steve Chesley, senior research scientist at JPL, who led the development of Sentry and collaborated on Sentry-II. “When the consequences of a future asteroid impact are so big, it pays to find even the smallest impact risk hiding in the data.”

For more information:

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/nasas-next-generation-asteroid-impact-monitoring-system-goes-online

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/keeping-an-eye-on-space-rocks

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/about/basics.html

https://astromart.com/news/show/nasa-rules-out-possibility-of-impacts-in-2036-and-2068-for-asteroid-apophis

https://astromart.com/news/show/100th-anniversary-of-the-tunguska-event-are-we-any-better-prepared-today

https://astromart.com/news/show/us-government-releases-national-near-earth-object-preparedness-plan

https://astromart.com/news/show/did-meteorite-impacts-help-create-life-on-earth

https://astromart.com/news/show/so-tell-me-again-what-killed-the-dinosaurs

https://astromart.com/news/show/a-comet-strike-13000-years-ago-may-have-sparked-a-civilization-shift

https://astromart.com/news/show/nasas-osiris-rex-to-attempt-a-grab-and-snatch-on-asteroid-bennu-today

https://astromart.com/news/show/aircraft-carrier-sized-asteroid-to-pass-within-moons-orbit