http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/09/12/climate-models-wildly-overestimated-global-warming-study-finds/?intcmp=features
global warming models a little off?
Started by drgenovese, 09/12/2013 05:25PM
Posted 09/12/2013 05:25PM
Opening Post
Posted 09/14/2013 04:56PM
#2
Well, Fox News, paragon of objective and balanced reporting, strikes again! Let's
just look at the Fox News title. First, the study wasn't about climate models, it
was about one climate model. Second, the "study" wasn't a study at all, it was
an opinion/comment. Third, the errors were not "wildly overestimated", but
rather they were well within 95% confidence limits (statistically, that means
it's not too bad).
Some background. All climate models get it wrong somewhere. Climate scientists
will be the last to claim their models are perfect. The model in question (CMIP5
which projects a number of climate variables) overestimates surface air
temperatures, this has been known for at least a few years. The "study" touted
by Fox, was submitted by Canadian climate scientists and was mainly concerned
with defining the error and suggesting causes. Interestingly, other scientists
have questioned the statistical methods, suggesting the errors are not as large
as the "study" in question suggests. I might add that even if all error is
corrected, the model projection will still show a warming world.
Another climate model that has even larger errors will most likely never appear
in Fox News. And that is the IPCC sea level projection model. This model, shall
I dare say, wildly underestimates sea level rise. Looking at the graph, one can
see that observations (the red and black lines) are pushing the upper limits of
the IPCC projections (the orange-tan area). Of course, this does not rule out a
Fox News feature on how the observations have been "cooked"!
just look at the Fox News title. First, the study wasn't about climate models, it
was about one climate model. Second, the "study" wasn't a study at all, it was
an opinion/comment. Third, the errors were not "wildly overestimated", but
rather they were well within 95% confidence limits (statistically, that means
it's not too bad).
Some background. All climate models get it wrong somewhere. Climate scientists
will be the last to claim their models are perfect. The model in question (CMIP5
which projects a number of climate variables) overestimates surface air
temperatures, this has been known for at least a few years. The "study" touted
by Fox, was submitted by Canadian climate scientists and was mainly concerned
with defining the error and suggesting causes. Interestingly, other scientists
have questioned the statistical methods, suggesting the errors are not as large
as the "study" in question suggests. I might add that even if all error is
corrected, the model projection will still show a warming world.
Another climate model that has even larger errors will most likely never appear
in Fox News. And that is the IPCC sea level projection model. This model, shall
I dare say, wildly underestimates sea level rise. Looking at the graph, one can
see that observations (the red and black lines) are pushing the upper limits of
the IPCC projections (the orange-tan area). Of course, this does not rule out a
Fox News feature on how the observations have been "cooked"!
Attached Image:
"A wise man, ... proportions his belief to the evidence."
-David Hume
Funding Member
