As far back in July I made a couple predictions:
http://www.astromart.com/forums/viewpost.asp?forum_post_id=670356&poll_id=&news_id=&page=
I brought it up again a few days ago here :
http://www.astromart.com/forums/viewpost.asp?forum_post_id=687271&poll_id=&news_id=&page=
with a link to Pure Poison taking bets as to which skeptic would do it and when:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2009/11/03/hot-weather-proves-nothing-place-your-bets/
Well, it looks like Watts Up With That has confirmed my prediction (even sooner than I expected) with a guest post by Bob Tisdale:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/10/countdown-to-an-unprecedented-warm-decade-2-months-to-go/
And the reason given?
[SIZE="Large"]El Nino![/SIZE]
(Hmmmm - rather interesting, especially considering my recent exchange with Doug)
OK, in fairness to Bob Tisdale, his argument is it's really mostly a holdover effect from the 1998 El Nino and he has been saying that for some time, well before the current El Nino started. He does, however, say on his website that he thinks the current El Nino will keep the 2000s from being cooler than the 1990s
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-temperatures-this-decade-will-be.html
[edit - forgot link]
I'll make a few predictions:
1) If the El Nino continues to strengthen to be a typical or strong El Nino, temps will rise over the next year or two.
2) The very same skeptics that are now making hay of recent flat or declining temps while ignoring the La Nina will dismiss this rise blaming it on the El Nino. In other words, they will confidently (and dishonestly) point to ENSO influences when it suits their purposes.
http://www.astromart.com/forums/viewpost.asp?forum_post_id=670356&poll_id=&news_id=&page=
I brought it up again a few days ago here :
http://www.astromart.com/forums/viewpost.asp?forum_post_id=687271&poll_id=&news_id=&page=
with a link to Pure Poison taking bets as to which skeptic would do it and when:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2009/11/03/hot-weather-proves-nothing-place-your-bets/
Well, it looks like Watts Up With That has confirmed my prediction (even sooner than I expected) with a guest post by Bob Tisdale:
Countdown to an "unprecedented warm decade" - 2 months to go
Global Temperatures This Decade Will Be The Warmest On Record...
...And It Will Be Exploited By Those Who Fail To Understand The Reasons For The Rise
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/10/countdown-to-an-unprecedented-warm-decade-2-months-to-go/
And the reason given?
[SIZE="Large"]El Nino![/SIZE]
(Hmmmm - rather interesting, especially considering my recent exchange with Doug)
OK, in fairness to Bob Tisdale, his argument is it's really mostly a holdover effect from the 1998 El Nino and he has been saying that for some time, well before the current El Nino started. He does, however, say on his website that he thinks the current El Nino will keep the 2000s from being cooler than the 1990s
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/global-temperatures-this-decade-will-be.html