This next graph is not my original work, although I have reformatted it. The flu data is from the CDC and the Covid-19 data is from Worldometer. This is grim stuff.
The 2017-2018 Flu season was extraordinarily bad - over 60k deaths in the US. 2017-2018 was the worst flu season in many years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season#Analysis_of_the_flu_season For comparison purposes, the 2011-2012 flu season was mild, only 12k deaths in the US. In each case the influenza fatalities were spread out over what is customarily defined as a "flu season," lasting about 211 days.
The red trace shows US Covid-19 fatalities, starting on March 7, when we had 19 fatalities so far. The slope of the Covid-19 fatalities curve is what is so problematic. Lots of people getting really sick and dying all at once. This rate of so many folks getting sick and dying substantially at the same time is what could (or is) overwhelming our health care system. Also, this curve is after all of the social distancing and isolation measures have been implemented for going on two-three weeks.
This graph shows why the huge risk of overwhelming the health care infrastructure with Covid-19 is not present in a typically bad flu season. With flu, the serious illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are spread out in time. Last, it is not like the flu has gone away. The CDC data so far indicates that 2019-2020 is going to be a really bad season for influenza too. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/health/flu-week-52/index.html
The President said that this week was going to be bad, with lots of death, and I agree with him. The next several weeks will probably be bad too. The total fatalities are up from 10,900 to 12,700 between today and yesterday, and several states have not yet reported today. I remain hopeful that the total US fatality rate will end up around 100k but it is tough to be that optimistic.
Why would I spend time graphing and sharing this grim data? Spinning Rich up is an amusing pastime of course, but that is not the reason. For me, fussing over this data and visualizing it helps me appreciate that our shared economic sacrifice is necessary and worthwhile. The nuggets of optimism shown in the graphs, like the slowed doubling rates are comforting. I'm looking forward to the day when I can post some clearly flattened-out graphs here! Jim
The 2017-2018 Flu season was extraordinarily bad - over 60k deaths in the US. 2017-2018 was the worst flu season in many years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season#Analysis_of_the_flu_season For comparison purposes, the 2011-2012 flu season was mild, only 12k deaths in the US. In each case the influenza fatalities were spread out over what is customarily defined as a "flu season," lasting about 211 days.
The red trace shows US Covid-19 fatalities, starting on March 7, when we had 19 fatalities so far. The slope of the Covid-19 fatalities curve is what is so problematic. Lots of people getting really sick and dying all at once. This rate of so many folks getting sick and dying substantially at the same time is what could (or is) overwhelming our health care system. Also, this curve is after all of the social distancing and isolation measures have been implemented for going on two-three weeks.
This graph shows why the huge risk of overwhelming the health care infrastructure with Covid-19 is not present in a typically bad flu season. With flu, the serious illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are spread out in time. Last, it is not like the flu has gone away. The CDC data so far indicates that 2019-2020 is going to be a really bad season for influenza too. https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/health/flu-week-52/index.html
The President said that this week was going to be bad, with lots of death, and I agree with him. The next several weeks will probably be bad too. The total fatalities are up from 10,900 to 12,700 between today and yesterday, and several states have not yet reported today. I remain hopeful that the total US fatality rate will end up around 100k but it is tough to be that optimistic.
Why would I spend time graphing and sharing this grim data? Spinning Rich up is an amusing pastime of course, but that is not the reason. For me, fussing over this data and visualizing it helps me appreciate that our shared economic sacrifice is necessary and worthwhile. The nuggets of optimism shown in the graphs, like the slowed doubling rates are comforting. I'm looking forward to the day when I can post some clearly flattened-out graphs here! Jim
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