Covid-19 data and graphs

Started by jameslbrown, 04/07/2020 11:29PM
Posted 04/08/2020 05:07AM | Edited 04/08/2020 05:21AM #10
This next graph is not my original work, although I have reformatted it.  The flu data is from the CDC and the Covid-19 data is from Worldometer.  This is grim stuff.  

The 2017-2018 Flu season was extraordinarily bad - over 60k deaths in the US.  2017-2018 was the worst flu season in many years.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season#Analysis_of_the_flu_season  For comparison purposes, the 2011-2012 flu season was mild, only 12k deaths in the US.  In each case the influenza fatalities were spread out over what is customarily defined as a "flu season," lasting about 211 days. 

The red trace shows US Covid-19 fatalities, starting on March 7, when we had 19 fatalities so far.  The slope of the Covid-19 fatalities curve is what is so problematic.  Lots of people getting really sick and dying all at once.  This rate of so many folks getting sick and dying substantially at the same time is what could (or is) overwhelming our health care system. Also, this curve is after all of the social distancing and isolation measures have been implemented for going on two-three weeks.

This graph shows why the huge risk of overwhelming the health care infrastructure with Covid-19 is not present in a typically bad flu season.  With flu, the serious illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are spread out in time.  Last, it is not like the flu has gone away.  The CDC data so far indicates that 2019-2020 is going to be a really bad season for influenza too.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/health/flu-week-52/index.html

The President said that this week was going to be bad, with lots of death, and I agree with him.  The next several weeks will probably be bad too.  The total fatalities are up from 10,900 to 12,700 between today and yesterday, and several states have not yet reported today.  I remain hopeful that the total US fatality rate will end up around 100k but it is tough to be that optimistic. 

Why would I spend time graphing and sharing this grim data?  Spinning Rich up is an amusing pastime of course, but that is not the reason.  For me, fussing over this data and visualizing it helps me appreciate that our shared economic sacrifice is necessary and worthwhile.  The nuggets of optimism shown in the graphs, like the slowed doubling rates are comforting.  I'm looking forward to the day when I can post some clearly flattened-out graphs here!  Jim

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Posted 04/08/2020 05:34AM #11
More on the numbers:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/politics/white-house-coronavirus-death-projections/index.html
Posted 04/08/2020 08:41AM #12
Originally Posted by James Brown
This next graph is not my original work, although I have reformatted it.  The flu data is from the CDC and the Covid-19 data is from Worldometer.  This is grim stuff.  

The 2017-2018 Flu season was extraordinarily bad - over 60k deaths in the US.  2017-2018 was the worst flu season in many years.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season#Analysis_of_the_flu_season  For comparison purposes, the 2011-2012 flu season was mild, only 12k deaths in the US.  In each case the influenza fatalities were spread out over what is customarily defined as a "flu season," lasting about 211 days. 

The red trace shows US Covid-19 fatalities, starting on March 7, when we had 19 fatalities so far.  The slope of the Covid-19 fatalities curve is what is so problematic.  Lots of people getting really sick and dying all at once.  This rate of so many folks getting sick and dying substantially at the same time is what could (or is) overwhelming our health care system. Also, this curve is after all of the social distancing and isolation measures have been implemented for going on two-three weeks.

This graph shows why the huge risk of overwhelming the health care infrastructure with Covid-19 is not present in a typically bad flu season.  With flu, the serious illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are spread out in time.  Last, it is not like the flu has gone away.  The CDC data so far indicates that 2019-2020 is going to be a really bad season for influenza too.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/health/flu-week-52/index.html

The President said that this week was going to be bad, with lots of death, and I agree with him.  The next several weeks will probably be bad too.  The total fatalities are up from 10,900 to 12,700 between today and yesterday, and several states have not yet reported today.  I remain hopeful that the total US fatality rate will end up around 100k but it is tough to be that optimistic. 

Why would I spend time graphing and sharing this grim data?  Spinning Rich up is an amusing pastime of course, but that is not the reason.  For me, fussing over this data and visualizing it helps me appreciate that our shared economic sacrifice is necessary and worthwhile.  The nuggets of optimism shown in the graphs, like the slowed doubling rates are comforting.  I'm looking forward to the day when I can post some clearly flattened-out graphs here!  Jim
An optimist will see glimmers of hope in the recent numbers. So they might say we behaved so well we are flattening the curve or they could say this virus just did not have the steam to take down our country, that it's danger was overestimated and you can't win betting against the power of our economy. There is a lot of compliance here locally with the social distancing. Few people that watch the news everyday will be dismissive of the virus. They will react more like me, it is wearing me down. There is just an avalanche of bad news, so much that I can only feel worse  about our situation. So I think compliance will increase as people here get sick and convince hold outs they need to comply. There were a total of 20 cases in my county a couple of days ago and fewer people are out and driving around. I'll guess things will not be better thirty days from now. That will make weeks of VERY bad economic news.
Posted 04/08/2020 09:58AM #13
Dr Vuong's latest video, April 7, on why the current death rate is going up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwznZq3NaxQ 
Posted 04/09/2020 11:37PM #14
The daily new cases graph (for the US) is starting to look good.  I think we are very close to or at the peak number of infections per day.  The total mortality looks like it will be a lot less than projected just a week ago.  In Italy and Spain, the mortality rates continued to climb for about a week after the daily infection rate peaked.

Keep your well-washed and socially-isolated fingers crossed!  I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives.

Jim  

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Posted 04/09/2020 11:51PM #15
"I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives."
I, myself,  think it was the hydroxychloroquine...
Posted 04/09/2020 11:55PM | Edited 04/09/2020 11:56PM #16
Originally Posted by James Brown
The daily new cases graph (for the US) is starting to look good.  I think we are very close to or at the peak number of infections per day.  The total mortality looks like it will be a lot less than projected just a week ago.  In Italy and Spain, the mortality rates continued to climb for about a week after the daily infection rate peaked.

Keep your well-washed and socially-isolated fingers crossed!  I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives.

Jim  
Here are graphs comparing time between the peak of the Spain/Italy daily infection rate curves in red with the peak of the daily mortality curve in green.  The peaks were selected by me via eyeball, so possibly not that accurate.  This demonstrates the week or so lag between the peak of the daily infection curve and the daily mortality curve.

Jim

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Posted 04/09/2020 11:58PM #17
Originally Posted by James Brown

Here are graphs comparing time between the peak of the Spain/Italy daily infection rate curves in red with the peak of the daily mortality curve in green.  The peaks were selected by me via eyeball, so possibly not that accurate.  This demonstrates the week or so lag between the peak of the daily infection curve and the daily mortality curve.

Jim
Here is where we are in the US, hopefully on the same track as Italy and Spain.  This suggests a lot fewer deaths than if the virus had simply run its course.

Jim

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Posted 04/10/2020 12:09AM #18
"I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives."
Barr, in an exclusive on FOX news, railed against those "draconian" lockdown measures:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/491940-barr-says-draconian-lockdown-measures-should-be-reexamined-by-may
Ya all better tank-up on that hydroxychloroquine. In fact, since Michigan is supposed to peak today, I don't understand why, in addition to the extra vents and PPE, they're not getting hydroxychloroquine airlifted to them...
Posted 04/10/2020 12:18AM #19
Dr Fauci revised the death count down to 60,000:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492007-fauci-us-death-toll-looks-more-like-60000-than-100-200k-estimate
While Bill O Reilly said "most of those who died were on their last legs anyway"...
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/491994-bill-oreilly-many-dying-from-coronavirus-were-on-last-legs-anyway
So scratch the hydrox...