Mubarak steps down - what now?

Started by doublestargeezer, 02/11/2011 11:59PM
Posted 02/11/2011 11:59PM Opening Post
Such an important moment for the middle east and the rest of the world. How will this affect other arab oligarchies? What about Israel? What role might the USA play? Who are the players to replace him? Will an Islamic theocracy be able to slip into power?

I, for one, will be monitoring this closely via the BBC, CBC, NPR, Al Jazeera and other online and shortwave news sources.

Dave
Posted 02/12/2011 02:48AM #1
Good question, I think no one really knows right now. Someone on a talk show made an interesting point about Egypt. The protests we are seeing in Cairo on our TV's are the young, jobless but well educated youth and middle-aged hungry for jobs and political freedoms. They are more likely to vote for a more moderate candidate (assuming free elections of course). However, they are more than outnumbered by the dirt poor population elsewhere in the country that are very religious Muslims, and the mosques they attend have nearly all the wealth in their areas. They are more likely to vote the way their imams tell them to, which of course would be for a more radical candidate. If that happens, the smaller, more moderate educated population is screwed. I also have a feeling, and this is just a feeling, that a lot of people are underestimating the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, and also they do not understand just how radical and potentially dangerous they are. There is historical precidence where radical Islamic groups use the lure of democracy and political freedoms to get themselves elected and once they take power they literally take over. The people end up with a very radical government that they did not want and cannot get rid of. I have a real fear that this could happen in Egypt.

David E
Posted 02/12/2011 09:27PM #2
Dave,
I'm starting to see a replay of the Carter-Iran situation. Not to imply that I want to be an interventionist, but we are allowing a power vacuum to be created without any real governmental solution in the wings. Islamic governments have had a long history in oscillating between anarchy and totalitarianism and at very sudden speeds. Even though the Egyptian military is pro-western leaning, no one knows how loyal and for how long the current situation will stay as it is.

Unless there is some sort of intervention by an outsider, I see the formation of an Islamic theocracy as a given. I'm afraid the Egyptian people are trading one dictator for a worse one.

Mubarak was a dictator but he did not have the worst human rights record of the Middle East. It appears from the news feeds that the underlying issue has been economic in nature. No matter who takes up the reigns, economic issues a very difficult to fix and take a significant passage of time to see any appreciable progress. This in itself creates a revolutionary environment in which citizens are requested and often willing to "make sacrifices" for the home land i.e. give up freedoms.
Posted 02/14/2011 08:54PM #3
Because our news media is always more interested in covering "the action" than in covering "the issues", I think we don't a very good idea what the revolution is all about. If a revolution is primarily about getting rid of a corrupt regime, but lacks a well-defined agenda, then it creates a void that will quickly be filled by the biggest thugs who have a semblance of an agenda that they can sell. What are the potential unifying issues in Egypt around which someone might be able to organize enough people to take charge? Islam, hatred for Israel, hatred for the U.S.? These may not even be the primary focal interests for the majority of Egyptians, but they don't need to be. They only need to form the largest, most aggressive plurality in order to take over in the face of an otherwise disorganized population which has no experience with self-government. I am not optimistic.