First a disclaimer: I have never posted here before but am a returning student of american history and political science at UCLA. I am unaffiliated with either party and vote a split ticket - a rare, true moderate independant. I am an accountant by trade living in southern california.
WHY BUSH WILL WIN
1. The Economy
This may seem odd as the dems have decided this is an issue that Bush is vulnerable - and he is, however, the US economy is looking increasingly less likely to cooperate with their political goals. True, the fact that there are 2mil people unemployed i nthe US hurts, but remember that the US still has relatively low unemployment (below 6%) and more importantly, employment is a trailing economic indicator. What this means is that since the economy (expressed as growth in the GDP) is definately on the mend, and the Fed has expressed an interest in keeping interest rates low for the forseeable future (i.e. through the election cycle), all the ingrediants are in place for jobs to be added to the economy in the next 3 quarters.
2. War on Terror
Regardless of what the rest of the world thinks, the majority of Americans believe that the Federal Government needs to be doing something about terror that involves our military. Now whether I personally agree with what the current administration is doing with that power or not, the fact remains that never has a sitting war-time president lost reelection (although perhaps Johnson would have...). When our boys are in harm's way, Americans have consistently chosen the devil that they know over the unknown quantity. And unfortunately for Kerry, his record on military/intelligence votes plus his vietnam protests overwhelm his heroic service - or at least the Repbs will insure that it overwhelms the air-waves.
(continued)
WHY BUSH WILL WIN
1. The Economy
This may seem odd as the dems have decided this is an issue that Bush is vulnerable - and he is, however, the US economy is looking increasingly less likely to cooperate with their political goals. True, the fact that there are 2mil people unemployed i nthe US hurts, but remember that the US still has relatively low unemployment (below 6%) and more importantly, employment is a trailing economic indicator. What this means is that since the economy (expressed as growth in the GDP) is definately on the mend, and the Fed has expressed an interest in keeping interest rates low for the forseeable future (i.e. through the election cycle), all the ingrediants are in place for jobs to be added to the economy in the next 3 quarters.
2. War on Terror
Regardless of what the rest of the world thinks, the majority of Americans believe that the Federal Government needs to be doing something about terror that involves our military. Now whether I personally agree with what the current administration is doing with that power or not, the fact remains that never has a sitting war-time president lost reelection (although perhaps Johnson would have...). When our boys are in harm's way, Americans have consistently chosen the devil that they know over the unknown quantity. And unfortunately for Kerry, his record on military/intelligence votes plus his vietnam protests overwhelm his heroic service - or at least the Repbs will insure that it overwhelms the air-waves.
(continued)
