Originally Posted by Maurice Clark
Hi Everyone,
Now that it seems pretty certain that your election will be Biden vs Trump, who is game enough to make predictions for the elections and why?
I will go first.
Assuming nothing major happens (eg Trump or Biden having a major health event) I give the Republicans and 80/20 chance of taking the senate and the Democrats a 65/35 chance of taking the House.
The senate map is a disaster for the Democrats. They are defending several marginal seats while for the Republicans there is very little chance for any of their seats being lost.
For the house, it is so finely balanced that anything could happen. It will depend on turnout and which party has been most effective is gerrymandering the districts. (Why is that allowed???)
For the Presidency, I give Biden a 70/30 chance of being re-elected. The unknowns here are voter enthusiasm. How motivated are Trump's supporters, how many moderate Republicans will be willing to vote for Trump when there is no alternative but Biden, how motivated are the Democrat voters, and how effective are the Democrats are making abortion a major issue. Of course, the state of the economy will also be a major factor. Finally, how effective will Trump be in delaying his trials.
What do you think?
Maurice
I more or less agree with the senate and house predictions.
The leaders of the EU who met last week think Dementia Don will be elected. I see Biden just picked up an important union endorsement today which should help in a swing state. The economy continues to improve and by many measures is a lot better under Biden than under Trump. Only the constant misinformation stream from rightwing media causes people to mistakenly believe otherwise. In this regard, the "greed-inflation", as evidenced by recordings of corporate CEOs saying they're raising prices under the guise of inflation while stating "they're taking all they can", is, unfortunately, what hits people in the face at the supermarket or elsewhere.
If inflation continues to mellow, the corporate inflation excuse diminishes, and prices should drop further.
Right now, it's toss up between Biden and Trump although having the latter up on a debate stage with Biden should be another shit-show like the last one with Trump making an obvious ass out of himself, something he can't help, so hopefully, in the end Biden will prevail. In the meantime, with Trump pressuring senate Republicans to avoid a deal on the border to make him look good, Ukraine will be overrun, possibly with weeks to a few months from now...