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RICHARD COFER

Lunar Occultation of Jupiter (Egress)

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Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

October 14, 2024 08:52 PM Forum: Politics

Don't worry because it is ONLY a HANDFUL of Apartment complexes being taken over by Venezuelan Gangs here in Aurora, Colorado south of Denver. Not a big deal!

Posted By Rod Kaufman

"The group was so heavily armed and so violent that the FBI deployed its elite Hostage Rescue Team from Quantico, Virginia, to support the arrests."

"Agents seized an arsenal of illegal guns, “bomb-making components” and dozens of kilograms of fentanyl, methamphetamine and heroin, according to law enforcement officials."

So, who are they?

"According to the U.S. attorney for the Central District of California, the Peckerwoods, a derogatory name historically used against white people, “has as its mission to plan attacks against racial, ethnic, religious minorities.”

"The federal indictment of 68 defendants accused of being members of (or being associated) with a criminal gang driven by race-based hate followed an investigation that led to the seizure of Nazi paraphernalia, including Adolf Hitler posters, and 97 pounds of fentanyl, federal officials said Wednesday. U.S. Attorney Martin Estrada, who announced the charges, called it one of the “largest takedowns in the history of the Department of Justice against a neo-Nazi, white supremacist, violent extremist organization.”

"The details of this multifaceted investigation reveal a significant component of America’s crime problem: hardened, U.S.-born criminals who traffic in the drugs, guns and violence plaguing our country. This contrasts with the fact-free fearmongering fabrications being sold to MAGA believers. It’s not that minorities don’t commit crimes; nor is that migrants never murder or rape. But Trump and Vance want voters to believe our gun, drug and violence problems are being driven by migrants when the opposite is true."

"Take Trump’s claim that Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua took over an entire apartment complex in Aurora, Colorado. It’s a scary story, but it’s not true. Just ask Aurora’s police chief. Facts be damned, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott fell in line with Trump and claimed a hotel in El Paso was taken over by Tren de Aragua, which he declared a foreign terrorist organization. Again, it’s a frightening scenario, but it’s devoid of evidence."

"During the vice presidential debate, Vance claimed the vast majority of illegal guns used in crimes here come from Mexican cartels. The truth is quite different; it’s the U.S. that’s arming Mexican cartels. We have detailed data demonstrating the extent to which American weapons are fueling the violence in Mexico, right down to the make and model of the guns found at crime scenes across the border."

"There’s no clear evidence that migrants commit crimes at any higher rate than U.S.-born citizens. In fact, we’d be hard-pressed to prove that undocumented migrants pose a greater crime threat than those 68 white supremacist gang members who, according to this week’s indictment, were part of a major California criminal enterprise."

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/peckerwoods-gang-indictments-fentanyl-rcna173853

October 14, 2024 09:30 PM Forum: Politics

October 15, 2024 05:34 AM Forum: Politics

It's Over

Posted By Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by James Brown

Rod, it might be over, it might not.  Silver's model has moved to nearly 50/50 over the last week, and Trump does have some momentum.  I looked at most of the 80 slides from this survey, and there are indeed plenty of strong numbers for Trump. https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-october-5/

Even so, Harris is winning in the "nation wide" early voting by 8% according to this survey.   (See slide 30 reproduced below).  Obviously early voting in CA and NY is irrelevant, but I am not sure you are comparing apples to apples here.  My guess is that the conventional wisdom of "Democrats ALWAYS lead in the early voting..." is based upon nationwide statistics from past elections, and Harris is leading nationwide.  I could be wrong, and if you have early voting stats from GA, NV, AZ, WI, PA, or MI from the last election that would be very interesting and a better comparison.

Also, I am not sure how many of the swing states even have significant early voting.  As of the October 5 survey date, the number of swing state respondents who could honestly tell this survey they had already voted is probably a very small sample size.  (I did not get my ballot until late last week, for example).  I think slide 29 with Trump leading both registered and likely voters in the swing states (by 2%) is more significant, and this is consistent with a lot of other recent polling.

So, Trump has had a good week of polling as reflected in Silver's model, the RCP averages and the betting markets.  But it is not over yet, not by a long shot.
The polling is based upon "critical swing states" early voting so it essentially is the same as exit polling in that it reflects what people have actually done, or so they say.

I'd love to be proven wrong here but my gut tells me otherwise. The pollsters say they've improved upon their methodology. We'll see...

October 15, 2024 06:01 PM Forum: Politics

It's Over

Posted By Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by James Brown

Last point, and I don't want to force Rod out onto the ledge, but on this date in 2020 the RCP national average had Biden up by a whopping 10%   As noted above, Harris is only up 1.4% in the RCP national average today.  Just before the 2020 election day, the RCP national average had Biden up 7.2%

Biden only went on to win the national average in 2020 by 4.4%, so the polling averages 3 weeks out and at the end were significantly or somewhat off in Biden's favor.  Even the slightest polling error in Harris's favor this year means that Trump is likely to win.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-biden
You beat me to it. I was going to note the same comparo between Biden's polling numbers and those of Harris when I read your post. Moreover, and although Biden won a decisive victory in the popular vote, his margins in the critical swing states were very small. And, of course, the latter doesn't bode well for Harris.

As far as being out on a ledge goes, if you watched the Bloomberg economic conference with Trump, broadcast live this morning on CNN, you'd probably find yourself on the same ledge as me. If Trump prevails, we'd be lucky to get out of his term with just a recession but, more than likely, a full blown depression may very well ensue.

TheHill article doesn't do justice to what you would have seen in its totality:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4934505-trump-defends-tariffs-chicago/

October 14, 2024 11:18 PM Forum: Politics

It's Over

Posted By Rod Kaufman

Trump will be re-elected. I base this on the fact that Trump is actually leading in early voting in the swing states. Democrats ALWAYS lead in early voting, period. The fact that Harris is the deciding factor in my opinion. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4932890-donald-trump-kamala-harris-battleground-states-harvard-harris-survey/

Welcome to a fascist and authoritarian state next year...

October 15, 2024 06:29 PM Forum: Politics

"Trump’s Former Joint Chiefs Chair: Trump Is ‘Fascist To The Core’"

Posted By Rod Kaufman

"When Gen. Mark Milley retired last year, following more than four decades of military service to the United States, he delivered a retirement speech that included some language that did not go unnoticed. “We don’t take an oath to a king, or a queen, to a tyrant or dictator — or wannabe dictator,” the retiring general said."

"Milley’s assessment of the Republican candidate is rooted in first-hand experience: Trump handpicked Milley to serve as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the general worked alongside the then-president for more than a year."

“No one has ever been as dangerous to this country as Donald Trump,” the general told Woodward. “Now I realize he’s a total fascist. He is the most dangerous person to this country.”


https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-former-joint-chiefs-chair-trump-fascist-core-rcna175248

October 18, 2024 02:47 PM Forum: Politics

The Fox News Harris Interview

Posted By Rod Kaufman

Brett Bair, to his credit, owned up today to the deceptively edited news clip he used against Harris during the interview:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/18/politics/video/bret-baier-mistake-kamala-harris-fox-news-interview-digvid

Deceptively edited news clips: Routine and customary programming at Faux, 99.9% of the time...

October 16, 2024 11:38 PM Forum: Politics

The Fox News Harris Interview

Posted By Rod Kaufman

I thought Harris did well in her interview, coming across as strong and forceful and on point on the issues. Bret Baier, for his part, did reasonably well considering his network is basically an extension of the Trump campaign.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-paints-trump-national-threat-testy-fox-news/story?id=114869202

Beyond Fox, I think a goal of the Harris campaign was accomplished in that the soundbites are being aired on other networks, thus affording more exposure to potential voters in the closing days of the campaign.

October 17, 2024 05:32 PM Forum: Politics

Gaza'a Bin Laden Killed In Gunfight With IDF

Posted By Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by Richard Davis
Even the favorite Newspaper for our resident Red Diaper Baby Communist, the Hill indicated how badly Kamala bombed in the interview with Brett Baier of Fox


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/opinion-kamala-harris-s-fox-news-interview-disaster-shows-how-the-media-set-her-up-to-fail/ar-AA1srN7E?ocid=msedgntp&c=W129&cvid=4f7db4e0e85a44b897d9aed303201b34&ei=12

How is it possible that Baier is one of the only people in this business who has bothered to ask the Democratic nominee about her role in a plot that ended with the current commander in chief being jettisoned from his own re-election campaign, making way for her own unlikely accession?

For an industry addicted to the word “unprecedented,” and as we’re currently living through times where the word really does apply, it is baffling that journalists aren’t more curious about what Harris knew regarding Biden’s declining mental acuity when she promised repeatedly that he was fit as a fiddle.

Is the U.S. president quitting in the middle of a race and the nomination of his vice president —who didn’t even make it to the Iowa caucuses when she ran for president in 2020 — not “unprecedented” enough for our media?

If the vice president’s involvement in a White House-wide conspiracy doesn’t clear the bar for “public interest,” nothing does.

It was a lousy night for Harris, sure. It was also a bad night for the all-too-friendly political press, whose kid-glove treatment of the Democratic vice president has left her unprepared to answer even the most basic question about policy or the events that secured her own nomination.
For the Putin supporting prick of the forum, what the hell does that have to do with the topic of the thread? Not to mention the MSNBC " source" is simply Peckerwood's usual citation of it when, it reality, it's simply is a recitation of other sources, and, in this case, a recitation of an opinion article in TheHill, and likely from a conservative Trump-supporter at that...

October 18, 2024 02:58 PM Forum: Politics

Gaza'a Bin Laden Killed In Gunfight With IDF

Posted By Rod Kaufman

Harris responds to the death of Sinwar:

"The US vice-president and Democratic nominee said “justice has been served” with the death of the Hamas leader, adding that the US, Israel and the wider world were “better off as a result”."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/17/kamala-harris-yahya-sinwar-death-reactions

Trump's response: