Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

More fear mongering from the left.  

There is no evidence at all that the markets dropped because Trump might win.

I kinda' remember the same bullshit back in 2016.  

I think Krugman claimed that the markets were going to tank and they would take years to recover, if ever. 

The same old same old bullshit.  

Oh gee, a couple of CNN hacks wrote the bullshit.   LOL

Is Morgan Stanley a couple of cnn hacks, too?

"Morgan Stanley Warns of 70,000 US Monthly Jobs Hit From Trump Tariffs"


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-warns-70-000-190458030.html

"Citi’s head of global wealth Andy Sieg is bullish on U.S. equities, saying he expects stocks can rally after the uncertainty from the election is lifted."

“There’s going to be a relief rally that is most likely to happen. We saw it in 2016, we saw it in 2020,” Sieg told CNBC’s “Money Movers.” “And when you think about the possibility for that relief rally, it’s uncertainty leaving the market, being replaced by some certainty in terms of the path forward, it’s rates coming down. And again, it’s getting refocused on the fundamentals in the U.S., which are strong.”

“So, we think the market has a ways to run,” Sieg added.


I hope this guy is right but once the market starts seeing the chaos induced by the Trump tariffs all bets are off..

Originally Posted by Chris Pagan

Rod,
This investor begs to differ:

https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/10/24/billionaire-investor-stock-market-convinced-trump-is-going-win-election/

"I must say, in the last 12 days the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win.”

Chris

I've saying all along that: 1.Trump will win and the market, as a whole, recognizes that and, other than the one or two self-identified Republican investors named in your Breitbart For MAGA link , the market fears a Trump presidency and the chaos it will bring (along with its tariffs), and that is why: 2. The Dow continues to take a major dump. 

Anof of course, not a peep from Trump himself who only takes credit for it if it goes up...

Originally Posted by Chris Pagan

Rod,

If investors know the path Trump will take, there will be no chaos.  I'm a real estate broker in Florida (23 years) and I have told all the people looking to sell to wait until Trump wins and thay will benefit from sudden increase in demand as investors anticipate stability in market growth.  BTW I made the most sales during Trump years. This year I'm at 25% of sales from Trump years.

Chris

"This year I'm at 25% of sales from Trump years."

That couldn't be because of the increasing frequency and severity of hurricanes and overall difficulties in getting insurance in a state where Desantis and company ban the words "climate change and "global warming" from the state legislature, now could it?

That couldn't be because people are fleeing the state now could it?

https://www.atlasvanlines.com/resources/blog/6-reasons-why-people-are-leaving-florida

Interestingly, whatever increase they may have had is due to "migrations from all over the globe", as per the link. 

Trump will stop that pronto!...

Originally Posted by Chris Pagan

Rod,

Florida is a big state. In all my years we have never had a direct hit (northeast) only tropical storm force which barely knocks the moss off the trees. My market is based on investors and retired folks, but you are going to lecture me on real-estate in Florida.  

Chris

That doesn't change the fact that people are leaving the state and with immigration sure to be stymied by Trump, influx will be curtailed, too.

Good luck with the Trump economy. You're gonna need it...

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Really?  The "Market" Fears it?  Prove it. 

Do you realize just how ignorant, absurd, and impossible to support, your asinine statement is?

I really don't think you do, simply because you are that ignorant that you would promote that impossible to prove assertion.

I suppose I could ask you to prove it, by simply asking you the simple question Who speaks for the "market"?

Does Rick Santelli speak for the "Market"?  

Do the guys in that group The Motley Fool speak for the "Market"? 

Is there a cabal of investors that speak for the "Market"?   If there are, then who are they?  

Are they the same guys who stated in 2016 that the "Market" was going to crash if Trump became the President back then?  

If these phantom people who speak for the "Market" are the same people why in Hell would I want to listen to them?

You know what I think?   I think KNOW that you can't back up any of your hysterics ever, but I will wait for you to try.  

"If these phantom people who speak for the "Market" are the same people why in Hell would I want to listen to them?"

"Morgan Stanley economists estimated that implementation of Republican tariff-hike proposals would drive up inflation and impose a hit to US economic growth that undercuts employment."

“If the proposed tariffs are fully implemented, we estimate a near-term acceleration in the inflation rate, and a delayed drag in GDP growth,” Morgan Stanley economists led by Seth Carpenter wrote in a note Monday."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-warns-70-000-190458030.html

"Experts say a comprehensive tariff strategy might also result in a sharp downturn in stock prices, particularly for U.S. multinationals that rely heavily on international supply chains. The investment bank UBS projected that a 10% tariff could lead to a 10% contraction in the stock market."

"A report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics indicates that the inflation rate could rise to between 6% and 9.3% by 2026 if Trump is elected, compared to a baseline estimate of 1.9% without his policies."

https://time.com/7095898/donald-trump-economy-plan-2024/

But what do Morgan Stanley and  investment bank UBS know compared to a heavy hitter like Rich Davis?...

From Barron's Financial on the recent drop in the Dow and upcoming headwinds:

"Also, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election have risen in the past few months, according to RealClearPolitics. His policies include fiscal spending and tariffs, both of which create inflation and throw cold water on the idea that the Fed will cut rates many times. While the economy could continue to grow, tariffs, for their part, not only lift prices, they destroy demand."

Originally Posted by James Brown

I am pleased that this post has not aged all that well.

Er, ah, the point is long term trends, specifically under Trump, like this one:


"From Barron's Financial on the recent drop in the Dow and upcoming headwinds:"

"Also, Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election have risen in the past few months, according to RealClearPolitics. His policies include fiscal spending and tariffs, both of which create inflation and throw cold water on the idea that the Fed will cut rates many times. While the economy could continue to grow, tariffs, for their part, not only lift prices, they destroy demand."

Originally Posted by James Brown

Ok, then don't flesh out your post with three days worth of data.  Over the long term, the markets did fine in Trump's last presidency.

That was then, not now. Trump is totally fixated on additional/new tariffs and with nothing but yes men on his team this time around, the reality factor goes out the door.

Trump's reply the other week to Fox's Maria B on her statement that his tariffs will run up prices for consumers is "no they're not, Maria B: "yeah they will", Trump: "no they not", Maria B: "Yeah they will", etc etc..

Trump is clueless about the effects of the new tariffs, particularly at the levels he is proposing, on consumer prices.
He simply doesn't understand we function in a global economy...

Here's Trump's right hand man, Elon Musk, telling all the rest of us of the upcoming economic pain under a Trump presidency:

"Americans will suffer “hardship” as a result of efforts to address the national debt."

"Musk said that he would “balance the budget immediately,” "And if it’s not done, we’ll just go bankrupt.”

That said, "There's no evidence whatsoever the United States is at risk of "going bankrupt."

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/elon-musk-trump-hardship-austerity-taxes-rcna177732