Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Trump if he loses: "Bad things could happen."

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4969593-trump-harris-election-prediction/

"The Republican Party is now more primed to back former President Trump if he contests the results of the 2024 election than it was four years ago, when his efforts to overturn President Biden’s victory fell flat in courts and Congress."

“The strength of the cult of Trump amongst voters is strong so members are reflecting what their constituents want them to do,” said a Republican strategist and former Senate leadership aide."

“Republicans watch a lot of Twitter and Fox News, and they see voting irregularities,...”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4966762-republicans-trump-election-challenge/

Specific to the Iowa poll:

"Trump suggests releasing poll results he dislikes ‘should be illegal’"
“It’s called suppression. They suppress. And it actually should be illegal.”

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-suggests-releasing-poll-results-dislikes-illegal-rcna178635

Originally Posted by James Brown

The same day, another pollster had Trump up 9 in IA.  One of them must be wrong!  Did you see Silver's article about poll herding this year?  It is very good.  Far to many pollsters (far more than is mathematically plausible given the margin of error in any political poll) have been herding toward the Trump +1, Harris +1 virtual tie scenarios for all the swing states.  The new Des Moines poll can certainly not be accused of following the herd!  

https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state

My own conclusion as of yesterday, based in part upon this tendency of the pollsters to herd, is that one of Trump or Harris is going to win the electoral college pretty easily, but we have no idea yet who the winner will be.

If the the pollsters and pundits are to be believed, and the Harris campaign strategy is correct, it'll come down to which candidate has the best voter-turnout mechanism. 
For the Harris campaign, it has been a massive effort with many busloads of campaign volunteers knocking on doors in critical battleground states. The number of busses and volunteers may be unprecedented in presidential campaigns. 

Will it be enough and will it be successful?, we'll soon find out...

Originally Posted by James Brown

I hope it is soon.  Delayed voting returns are rocket fuel for the conspiracy theorists and whack jobs out there.

There is an interesting concept being discussed in the comments on Silver's blog - assuming that the winner of Pennsylvania is slow to materialize, what does one watch to see if his or her candidate is doing well?

Some are easy - If Harris wins IA, GA, NC, or is oddly competitive in Florida/Texas, it is probably going to be a Harris electoral landslide.  On the other hand if Trump wins New Hampshire, Virginia, or if NY is weirdly close, then look out.

He stands behind his prediction:


https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/video/lichtman-harris-prediction-trump-election-digvid

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

As if I didn't read that???  So what?  Am I supposed to not give a counter fact because it is inconvenient to you?

Why did you even answer my post with all that blather above it, instead of just saying that one statement above?

I posted my counter with the letter itself and other statements and yet you felt the need to respond.

Why?  Why didn't you simply say "Yes, those are some other views of Generals"

I guess I should realize at this point that it is always one way with you liberals, eh?  

We should just accept what you post with no response at all, since your side doesn't give an inch.

I guess we will find out tonight how this country feels about the radical left being in charge for the last 4 years, causing the economic woes we are enduring today.

"I guess we will find out tonight how this country feels about the radical left being in charge for the last 4 years, causing the economic woes we are enduring today."

From CNBC today: “The reality is whoever is given the keys to the White House, if you will, is going to be taking on a car that’s in pretty good shape — an economy that’s in pretty darn good shape,”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Division and polarization have always existed in politics. They are especially bad in a winner-take-all system like ours. Even if a national tragedy briefly unites us, we will return to our old ways soon enough.

But Trump has taken it to a whole new level:

"Journalists from multiple news organizations have been denied credentials to former President Donald Trump’s election night watch event in West Palm Beach, Florida, in retaliation for their coverage of Trump’s campaign."

"Reporters at Politico, Axios, Puck, Voice of America and Mother Jones were among those denied credentials. Some, like Politico, had been previously granted access to the Tuesday night event only to have the decision reversed." "(The person suggested the decision was made in response to an article in Politico magazine, which reported that a Trump campaign field director was fired for being a White nationalist.)"

"The Trump campaign and his former administration have a history of revoking credentials for reporters, often in retribution over their coverage. In 2018, the Trump White House revoked CNN correspondent Jim Acosta’s press credential, only to be forced to restore the credential after CNN filed a lawsuit."

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html

Theme song from "The Good, The Bad And The Ugly" performed by the National Danish Orchestra:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enuOArEfqGo&list=RDenuOArEfqGo&start_radio=1

I've been saying all along that I'd expect Trump to win but I agree with Brian, I think women voters along with the expansive voter turnout drive from the Harris campaign will put her over the top.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I do think Raskin is a politician to the core of his being, and thus selective in his outrage and hypocritical.  I don't think I am as incensed as you are about it. 

As I have posted many times over the last 4 years, I think Trump's behavior on and after J6 was reprehensible, repugnant, and disqualifying as far as my vote is concerned.  I do not think his behavior was an impeachable offense, a criminal act, insurrection, or treason.

" I do not think his behavior was an impeachable offense, a criminal act, insurrection, or treason."

I'm not sure what more Trump would have had to do on January 6th to convince you otherwise other than actually joining the mob which he had planned to do if it weren't for the fact that the secret service refused to drive him to join in with the rest.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Off the top of my head Rod, the sort of things that would change my mind would be:

- an email or phone record of Trump coordinating a riot with the Proud Boys or some other group.
- a memo or internal communication suggesting that if Trump could incite a riot it might stall the certification.
- credible testimony that Trump himself planned (in advance) more than a speech.  i.e. that he intentionally incited a riot.  

That sort of thing.   I do not think that Trump's speech, which was indeed incendiary, is enough.  His speech had some ambiguity to it, and it was a political speech.  I also do not think the existence of the big lie is enough. (The big lie being that the election was stolen).   Losing politicians often bitch, moan, and lie that the election was stolen without any rational basis at all.  

Last but not least; Jack Smith has not charged Trump with insurrection or treason.

" a memo or internal communication suggesting that if Trump could incite a riot it might stall the certification."

“It shows intent, a sophisticated plan, a blueprint to illegally and unconstitutionally overturn and steal the election” by Trump and his team based on false and misleading information and legal arguments,.."
"When Pence refused to intervene, Trump turned on his vice president, attacking him on Twitter even as the insurrection at the Capitol was unfolding on January 6."


"The Eastman memo laid out a six-step plan for Pence to overturn the election for Trump, which included throwing out the results in seven states because they allegedly had competing electors. In fact, no state had actually put forward an alternate slate of electors – there were merely Trump allies claiming without any authority to be electors."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/politics/trump-pence-election-memo/index.html

Add to that Steve Bannon's statement of January 5th claiming "Come to the capitol on Jan6th, it's going to be wild" and his refusal to comply with a congressional subpoena to explain how he would know that in advance and his subsequent refusal and imprisonment, it becomes evident there was significant preparation for the event with foreknowledge of its proceedings...

"Russia sees Trump’s win as chance to shift US policy on Ukraine conflict"

“There is hope, first of all, for a reduction in aid to Ukraine,” an unnamed parliamentary source reported to Vyorstka. “Trump is certainly much more capable of making a deal, and one that is better for us, than Harris.”

"Trump has previously said that he would end the Ukraine-Russia war "in one day."


"Russia will work with the new administration when it 'takes up residence' in the White House, fiercely defending Russian national interests and focusing on achieving all the set objectives of the special military operation (in Ukraine)," the ministry said, as reported by Reuters."

"Our conditions are unchanged and are well known in Washington."


https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-827802

Yup, Putin, Trump and Vance, what a team...