Posts Made By: Rod Kaufman

Originally Posted by James Brown

I've got the future president of JP Morgan Wealth Mgmt. and more importantly James Lacey and presumably you agreeing with me, so maybe my optimism that Trump won't/won't be allowed to implement draconian tariffs is not naive after all.  Fingers crossed.  Thanks for sharing these insights.

Well, the companies themselves are taking Trump at his word:

Nov 7th: "Companies Are Already Warning of Price Hikes From Trump Tariffs":

"Steven Madden Ltd. is accelerating plans to shift production out of China after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election raised the odds of increased tariffs on imported goods."

"The shoe retailer now aims to reduce goods manufactured in China by 40% within the next year, up from its prior target of a 10% reduction.

“As of yesterday morning, we are putting that plan into motion,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Rosenfeld told analysts on an earnings call Thursday."

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/steven-madden-targets-40-cut-to-china-imports-to-avoid-tariffs

"Companies like Five Below, Crocs, Skechers, Amer Sports and American Eagle Outfitters could be forced to raise prices or take profit cuts because of their exposure to China."

"Trump-backed corporate tax cuts could benefit retailers, but high tariffs would outweigh those tax savings."

"Bank of America also downgraded Yeti Holdings from buy to neutral because of its high exposure to China."

"Some companies, including AutoZone, have already told investors that they will raise prices to cover the additional costs."

“If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” AutoZone CEO Philip Daniele said on an earnings call in late September. He said the company typically hikes prices ahead of tariffs going into effect."

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/06/trump-proposed-tariffs-consumer-prices.html

"President Trump has said he plans to install a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on all imports, with additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods brought in from China."

"Economists, however, tend to agree that such a plan would would have the effect of raising prices on everyday goods. "If President Trump raises tariffs on imported goods, it means inevitably that American consumers are going to pay more," Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told CNBC."

"Ultimately, the cost of tariffs will be paid by us, the consumer," says George Ball, chairman of investment management firm Sanders Morris. "They'll be buying things at higher prices than they otherwise would."

"And effectively, what that does is create a situation where both impacted countries are seeing this government intervention. It tends to lead to higher prices for consumers in both countries."

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/business/money-report/trumps-tariff-plan-why-hes-pushing-for-them-and-how-they-might-end-up-raising-prices/3555581/

You think we're paying high prices now? Just wait until the Trump plan takes effect...

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Rich, you are again talking in circles, using jibberish, and moving the goalposts. In Trump's first term, Trump threatened to withhold aid to Democratic-led cities over unrest and California during wildfire disasters. He blocked assistance to Puerto Rico after a hurricane. Reports of these were plentiful at the time, and probes and inquiries have confirmed Trump's actions. One misbehaving low-level bureaucrat in FEMA does not equal the POTUS withholding assistance from blue states that did not vote for him or because he disagrees with their local policies. No matter how much you want to spin, change the subject, or move the goalposts, Trump's actions are entirely unprecedented in American politics, and he's a scumbag for it.

AND:

"A Federal Emergency Management Agency employee has been fired after they advised their disaster relief team to avoid homes with signs supporting former President Donald Trump while canvassing in Florida in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton, the agency’s administrator said Saturday."

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/08/politics/fema-employee-trump-florida-hurricane/index.html

Hey Rich, how about those pentagon official trying to figure what to do if Trump issues unlawful order to the military directing them to do his bidding in the united states? Ya think they've had to do that with any other president?

"Trump refused to give California wildfire aid until told how many people there voted for him, ex-aide says"

"Former White House advisers said Trump hesitated as president to provide disaster aid to California because of the state’s Democratic leanings."

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/helene-trump-politics-natural-disaster-00182419

"Vengeful’ Trump withheld disaster aid and will do so again, ex-officials warn"

"Former administration officials say Trump deliberately denied funds to states he deemed politically hostile"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/13/trump-disaster-funding-warning

"In what will be a generous gift to his successor, President Joe Biden beat inflation, brought down gas prices, created millions of jobs, spurred strong growth, boosted retirement savings and revived American manufacturing — just in time for Donald Trump to take credit for all of it."

"Among the things for which Biden gets little acknowledgment is his legislative success. He signed a series of highly consequential bills, including the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, which was by far the most important bill addressing climate change in the nation’s history."

"Biden’s critics would say his approval ratings are low primarily because we went through a period of inflation, which people hate. Fair enough. But inflation happened all over the world as supply chains struggled to restart after the worst of the Covid pandemic. The decision we made in the U.S. to minimize the shock of the Covid recession by pumping money into the economy — a strategy that began while Trump was president — was clearly the correct one, saving the country from an explosion in unemployment."

"America has recovered more quickly and more completely than almost any comparable country. As The Economist put it, “The American economy has left other rich countries in the dust.”


"But few in the electorate seem aware. Voters punish incumbent parties for inflation, whether or not it was their fault — and even after it’s over. That’s a phenomenon we’ve seen around the world this year. But the fact that voters in other countries are also blaming their governments for inflation doesn’t mean that Biden deserves blame for it, especially given how successful his economic policies have been more generally."

"Trump will no doubt claim that he is responsible for everything good that Biden did. Worst of all, many people will believe him."

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-trump-presidency-accomplishments-rcna179235

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

LOL!!! Yeah, the last JOBS report was a whole 12K jobs created ALL government jobs.  

And he lost us 46,000 Manufacturing jobs last month.  

Way to go Joe!!!  

I think we can all let Joe CLAIM those wonderful stats.

Not to mention my grocery bill has gone up AT LEAST 75% for the things I purchase regularly.  

Gosh, I remember the good old days of Trump when gas was $1.84, not the MORE than $3.00 I've been paying  for the last few years. 

And I do recall when I could get a gallon of milk for $1.89.  Yesterday I paid $3.89, so MORE than a 100% increase.

And eggs??  Yes, they were also OVER 4 bucks for a dozen.  Gone are those good old days of $1.29 eggs.  Never again, so thank you SENILE Joe Biden, the dumbest son of a bitch that ever sat in the WH.

"Yeah, the last JOBS report was a whole 12K jobs created ALL government jobs. "
"And he lost us 46,000 Manufacturing jobs last month."

We've already been through that and you won't get it through your head that the 45000 "loss" in manufacturing jobs was the result of the companies not reporting to the labor department due to strikes in their plants which is typically how it works. Once the strikes stop the reporting picks back up and those jobs will be recorded as such. Labor reports get revised all the time and there's no mystery about except to an obtuse knucklehead like you...

I also expect Trump to claim credit when none was due, as outlined by the MSNBC article, just like the rest of the republicans reps typically do when their districts receive money from the infrastructure act even though they voted against it...

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

the 45000 "loss" in manufacturing jobs was the result of the companies not reporting to the labor department due to strikes in their plants which is typically how it works.


No, that's not how it works.  I posted before the way it works, from the BLS website and the BLS does not count striking workers as "unemployed"

If they're not reported on labor rolls to the labor department, they're not recorded. Connect the dots and stop being the typical obtuse knucklehead we all know you to be...

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I've been reading the report more and more as I have time, and the severe delay occurred in the second tranche of funds. On page 42, it says:

HUD and PRDOH did not ultimately sign a grant agreement regarding this tranche of funds until February 21, 2020, several days after the USVI signed its grant agreement. By contrast, Texas signed its grant agreement relating to second tranche funds 178 days earlier, on August 27, 2019, and Florida signed its agreement 150 days earlier, on September 24, 2019. This tranche of funding was also delayed when viewed in comparison to the first tranche of funding for unmet needs for PRDOH, owing in significant part to the parallel delays in publishing Puerto Rico's CDBG-MIT

To break it down, the above paragraph says:

1. Significant delays were caused by the OMB's extraordinary demands, such as the unordinary CDBG-MIT (Community Development Block Grant Mitigation) reports they required. Puerto Rico could not sign its agreement until February 21, 2020.
2. Texas signed an agreement to receive its funds on August 27, 2019.
3. Florida signed its agreement on September 24, 2019.

So, PR did not even get to sign its agreement for the second tranche of funds until 6-7 months after Texas and Florida due to the unordinary reports required by the OMB, which is under the direct control of the WH. The report discusses a third tranche of funds significantly delayed by the OMB and its demanding requirements. I'm sorry, Rich, but your report provides a lot of evidence contrary to what you claim.

James, I gotta say my hat's off to you in this and many other postings for thoroughly refuting Rich's trademark faulty interpretation of virtually everything he writes and you have the patience and tenacity to do it. Kudos to you for a job well done!

"Biden funded new factories and infrastructure projects, but Trump might get to cut the ribbons"

"All that's left is for President-elect Donald Trump to put his name on it — if he wants."

"Trump won the White House in large part because of voters' frustration with high prices and a sense that the United States needs major changes. But when he enters office in January, Trump will inherit an economy primed for growth."

"The unemployment rate is low, inflation is easing and President Joe Biden's administration has teed-up a ready-made list of infrastructure projects that could go from theoretical to reality over the next several years. There’s the TSMC computer chip plant in Arizona, the new Hyundai electric vehicle factory in Georgia and a modernized I-375 in Michigan, among thousands of projects under way that will take years to complete."


"Trump said in September that he would “rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act” and said on Joe Rogan’s podcast that tariffs would do more for manufacturing than the funding provided by the CHIPS and Science Act."

"But Biden aides privately told The Associated Press that they expect Trump to continue the planned projects and take credit for Biden's accomplishments, just like the Republicans in Congress who’ve celebrated plant openings and infrastructure developments in their districts but voted against them."


https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/national-international/infrastructure-bill-cost-biden-trump-united-states-economy/3558703/