Posts Made By: Dave Snope

I'm not any less skeptical about this prediction than any others, but it does agree with predictions made in recent years using the PDO trend. The only thing that I'll predict is that mother nature will teach us something new during this period.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html

The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.

Their predictions – based on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – challenge some of the global warming orthodoxy’s most deeply cherished beliefs, such as the claim that the North Pole will be free of ice in
summer by 2013.

According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.

The scientists’ predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models, which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as long as carbon dioxide levels rise.

They say that their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic cycles when they were in a ‘warm mode’ as opposed to the present ‘cold mode’.

This challenge to the widespread view that the planet is on the brink of an irreversible catastrophe is all the greater because the scientists could never be described as global warming ‘deniers’ or sceptics.

However, both main British political parties continue to insist that the world is facing imminent disaster without drastic cuts in CO2.
This image of the UK taken from NASA's multi-national Terra satellite on Thursday shows the extent of the freezing weather

This image of the UK taken from NASA's multi-national Terra satellite on Thursday shows the extent of the freezing weather

Last week, as Britain froze, Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband maintained in a parliamentary answer that the science of global warming was ‘settled’.

Among the most prominent of the scientists is Professor Mojib Latif, a leading member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been pushing the issue of man-made global warming on to the international political agenda since it was formed 22 years ago.

Prof Latif, who leads a research team at the renowned Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start.

He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008 and warned of it again at an IPCC conference in Geneva last September.

Last night he told The Mail on Sunday: ‘A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 per cent.

'They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1242011/DAVID-ROSE-The-mini-ice-age-starts-here.html#ixzz0cFRmKhhL

Humorous article in which Frank Furedi of the Australian connects current human behaviors about global warming to past behaviors about weather.

A dramatic sounding voiceover informs us that David Shukman, who is the BBC's environment and science correspondent, will report "on how one of the longest cold snaps for a generation fits in with theories of a warming planet and global climate change".

...

Extreme weather is not so much a scientific as a cultural metaphor that expresses the anxieties of our time. The conceptual linkage of weather with extreme symbolises a growing tendency to endow natural phenomena with moral meaning.

We can no longer accept that sometimes harsh climatic conditions just happen. As in ancient times when superstition reigned, we interpret bad weather as a symptom of divine displeasure.

The resurgence of witch-hunting in the late 16th century was influenced by the belief that witches possessed demonic powers that could manipulate the climate in order to undermine the welfare and health of the communities in which they lived.

A late winter in the province of Treves in the 15th century led to more than 100 people being burned at the stake.

Read the whole commentary at:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/its-15-below-zero-as-weathermen-go-witch-hunting/story-e6frg6zo-1225818570353

Probably the most infamous AGW junk scientist of all got $500K in stimulus money. The disgraced perpetrator of the Hockey Stick curve that was used to fool the world's people into thinking that "something must be done" before his science was proven to be junk, is getting his political reward to enable him to perpetrate more.

http://www.nationalcenter.org/PR-Michael_Mann_Money_011410.html

Washington, DC - In the face of rising unemployment and record-breaking deficits, policy experts at the National Center for Public Policy Research are criticizing the Obama Administration for awarding a half million dollar grant from the economic stimulus package to Penn State Professor Michael Mann, a key figure in the Climategate controversy.

"It's outrageous that economic stimulus money is being used to support research conducted by Michael Mann at the very time he’s under investigation by Penn State and is one of the key figures in the international Climategate scandal. Penn State should immediately return these funds to the U.S. Treasury," said Tom Borelli, Ph.D., director of the National Center's Free Enterprise Project.

Professor Mann is currently under investigation by Penn State University because of activities related to a closed circle of climate scientists who appear to have been engaged in agenda-driven science. Emails and documents mysteriously released from the previously-prestigious Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom revealed discussions of manipulation and destruction of research data, as well as efforts to interfere with the peer review process to stifle opposing views. The motivation underlying these efforts appears to be a coordinated strategy to support the belief that mankind's activities are causing global warming.

"It's no wonder that Obama's stimulus plan is failing to produce jobs. Taxpayer dollars aren't being used in the ways most likely to spur job creation. The stimulus was not sold to the public as a way to reward a loyalist in the climate change debate. Nor was the stimulus sold as a way to promote the Obama Administration's position on the global warming theory. This misuse of stimulus money illustrates why tax cuts are a better way to stimulate the economy than letting the government decide where to spend taxpayer dollars. As is often the case, political considerations corrupt the distribution of government funds," said Deneen Borelli, a fellow with the National Center's Project 21 black leadership network.

"Mann's credentials as a climate change alarmist seems to fit the political criteria for stimulus funds sometimes known as 'Obama money'," added Deneen Borelli.

Mann is a central and controversial figure in climate change research. Mann's so-called "hockey stick" graph depicting temperature changes over a 1000 year period was used as evidence in the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001 report to demonstrate that carbon dioxide from industrial activity is causing global warming. Mimicking the shape of a hockey stick, the graph showed a long time period of stable temperatures (the shaft) followed by a rapid rise in temperatures (the blade) during the last hundred years.

Critics of the hockey stick claim Mann manipulated data to eliminate periods of time such as the medieval warming period and the little ice age to eradicate the visual impact of natural global temperature variation. The emails from Climategate reveal that the inner circle of climate scientists were troubled by the methods Mann used to produce the graph.

"It's shocking that taxpayer money is being used to support a researcher who seemingly showed little regard to the basic tenes of science - a dispassionate search for the truth," said Tom Borelli.

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news/article.aspx?subjectid=16&articleid=20100113_16_A1_OlhmeJ156867

WASHINGTON — In a cover story on global warming titled "You Idiots!" Rolling Stone named U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe as one of the "planet's worst enemies.''

The Oklahoma Republican took issue.

"My first response was I should have been No. 1, not No. 7," said Inhofe, perhaps the most vocal global-warming skeptic in Congress. "I am serious about that. I have spent now literally years on this thing, and it has been a long, involved thing.''

Although the magazine did not actually rank its "Climate Killers" by number, it does appear Warren Buffett, the legendary investor from Nebraska who is one of the richest people in the nation, took the top spot.

Buffett was the first one profiled and, unlike the other 16 "polluters and deniers," he did not have to share a page.

Still, Inhofe conceded his profile said some "nice'' things about him.

The magazine described him as "one of the GOP's loudest and most influential voices on climate change."

Citing his headline-grabbing comments from the past, it states that Inhofe is far from being marginalized and continues to hold remarkable sway.

He is credited with leading an effort that helped cloud the future of a major climate change bill in the Senate and "diminishing America's bargaining position at the Copenhagen climate negotiations."

Inhofe is called "God's Denier" for the way he dismisses concern about rising sea levels.

"I say God is still up there, and we will always have these changes,"
he said.

In addition to Inhofe and Buffett, the magazine's list includes Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Mary Landrieu, D-La.; Rep. Joe Barton, R-Texas; media baron Rupert Murdoch; former Democratic House leader Dick Gephardt; columnist and television pundit George Will; U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue; Charles and David Koch of Koch Industries; and others from the energy industry.

"I am really in a better crowd than I have been in for quite some time," Inhofe said.

As for the title of the article, Inhofe takes it in stride.

"It is something I have taken eight years of hits for, and then finally we have come from a position of about only 18 percent of the people in America agreeing with my original position 10 years ago to about 75 percent now," Inhofe said, adding that he now feels redeemed on the issue.

Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo's preliminary report on the NCDC points out the NOAA's role in fooling the world. It's hard to blame everyday people who believed in AGW when they were constantly given fraudulent data from their own government entities. See attached image for example of how they adjusted the data by as much as 4 degrees C to make you think the past was cooler and therefore we are warming in the present.


NOAA is seriously complicit in data manipulation and fraud. After the Climategate emails were leaked, the East Anglia Hadley Centre has been the focus for data obstruction, destruction and manipulation issues and Phil Jones has temporarily stepped aside during a three year investigation as director of the Hadley Climatic Research Unit (CRU) until the completion of an independent Review resulting from allegations of inappropriate scientific conduct.

But CRU’s Director at the time Phil Jones acknowledges that CRU mirrors the NOAA data. “Almost all the data we have in the CRU archive is exactly the same as in the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) archive used by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center.”

NOAA appears to play a key role as a data gatherer/gatekeeper for the global data centers at NASA and CRU. Programmer E.M. Smith’s analysis of NOAA’s GHCN found they systematically eliminated 75% of the world’s stations with a clear bias towards removing higher latitude, high altitude and rural locations, all of which had a tendency to be cooler. The thermometers in a sense marched towards the tropics, the sea and to airport tarmacs.


http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf

The New Scientist swallowed its pride and has come clean about the hysterical claim they made in their magazine in 1999, that the Himalayan glaciers would be gone by the year 2035. It turns out it was just “speculation” by a glaciologist at the time. But the big deal is that this speculation became an IPCC “finding.”

http://www.climategate.com/new-scientist-oops-the-glaciers-wont-have-melted-by-2035

NASA's James Hansen, the shy but extroverted, gloomy but hopeful, human quote machine, has said a lot of crazy things. But I have to give credit where credit is due. Sometimes he gets something right. And this quote from last year has already been proven right a thousand times this winter.


“Before the end of Obama’s first term, we will be seeing new record temperatures. I can promise the president that.”. - Dr. James Hansen

ScienceDaily (Dec. 4, 2009) — The rising level of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be fueling more than climate change. It could also be making some trees grow like crazy.

That is the finding of a new study of natural stands of quaking aspen, one of North America's most important and widespread deciduous trees. The study, by scientists from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Minnesota at Morris (UMM) and published December 4 in the journal Global Change Biology, shows that elevated levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide during the past 50 years have boosted aspen growth rates by an astonishing 50 percent.

"Trees are already responding to a relatively nominal increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 50 years," says Rick Lindroth, a UW-Madison professor of ecology and an expert on plant responses to climate change. Lindroth, UW-Madison colleague Don Waller, and professors Christopher Cole and Jon Anderson of UMM conducted the new study.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091204092445.htm

Even the 'raw' data looks like global warming.



H/T Hockeyshtick

In this analysis of station counts, station duration, and temperature records, we see that the GHCN 'adjusted' data (which is the 'homogenized' data used by all the warmist scientists as their gold standard raw data for further manipulation), has quadrupled the rising slope of the temperature trend over the raw data.

From Air Vent:
What this shows is that on average the adjustment process more than quadrupled the trend in raw temperatures, increasing the trend of the mean from 0.0113 for raw data to 0.0536. Indeed, if the mean trend change of 0.0423 resulting from adjustments to the long record stations were typical of the effect of adjustments to station data generally, the adjustment process would account for a substantial proportion of the recorded global mean temperature increase over the twentieth century.


Here's the raw for 764 long record stations:


Here's the homogenized for 764 long record stations:


Here's the URL: http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/01/19/long-record-ghcn-analysis/#more-7578

This reminds me of the classic comment from a while back at ClimateAudit, that the only thing we can be sure about in climate science is that the past will always get cooler.