Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

The number of cases has been doubling every two days in the US for a few weeks. If that continues, we will go from 1500 cases today, to 1,000,000 by or just after the end of this month! It is simple math. We need to arrest the progression of the illness and realize it is not an over-reaction. Frankly, your response surprises me given the simple math of the problem.

1000,2000,4000,8000, 16000, 32000...every 2 days! Exponential growth is a bitch.

Russ,

I get the math, like I said yesterday I expect 150,000,000 cases in the US during the 2020 infection wave whether we take measures like cancelling classes or not.  I'm sure you read that.

I expect many Mines students to contract the disease, whether classes are cancelled or not.

You do recognize  that the kids still live in dorms, they can't go home unless they are very local.  Engineering seniors are all working in labs using equipment and software that is not available on their laptops.  This cooperative work will continue, campus is open.  Senior design projects are still due.

Also, the kids will not self-quarantine, they will still hang out and get pizza, work on their homewok together, play cards, drink beer and so on.

Do you really think that cancelling classes will have much effect on campus disease transmission?  That's a serious question.  I see this as an overreaction primarily because it is not going to do anything.  Like the article I linked yesterday said, we ought to be focusing on protecting vulnerable populations (hospitals, nursing homes, and the like) not implementing half-prophylactic measures to protect relatively invulnerable populations.

Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Sorry I disagree with you.  The response everywhere is absurd IMO.

Deal with this Jim.  I don't expect a response from you but I'll ask anyway.

How many Pediatric deaths are attributed to Coronavirus?  Is it 1?  Is it 0?  

How many Pediatric deaths in the US are attributed to Flu this year?  

According to the CDC it is 136. 

Are you concerned about that?  

IF not, why not?  

Yes, people in this nation (at least those on the left) are in Panic mode over an illness that has killed 29 people so far and NO infants or children as far as I know.  

Do you know differently.  

Shutting down entire groups of commerce, Universities is complete insanity.  Years back Meningitis was going around University campuses. 

Did the Universities shut down?

Why didn't they? 

This whole thing is utterly overreaction on steroids.  

They have not shut down the Universities.  They have gone to on-line classrooms.  All of the projects, tests and so forth are still due.  The labs are open.  WTF with the "if not why not" interrogation.  Of course I care about children dying of the flu.  That is of course irrelevant to our discussion.

Jim

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

The number of cases has been doubling every two days in the US for a few weeks. If that continues, we will go from 1500 cases today, to 1,000,000 by or just after the end of this month! It is simple math. We need to arrest the progression of the illness and realize it is not an over-reaction. Frankly, your response surprises me given the simple math of the problem.

1000,2000,4000,8000, 16000, 32000...every 2 days! Exponential growth is a bitch.

Short reply - agreed, exponential growth is a bitch.  Do you think cancelling classes is going to affect that growth at all, given the the dorms are still open, the labs are still open, the pizza joints are still open and so on?

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Short reply - agreed, exponential growth is a bitch.  Do you think cancelling classes is going to affect that growth at all, given the the dorms are still open, the labs are still open, the pizza joints are still open and so on?

Jim

Shorter summation.  Yes exponential growth.  30-50% are going to get it.  I believe that less than 1% will die, with the deaths being focused on the vulnerable and elderly.  Aging is a bitch too.  I do not believe that closing the classrooms will make much difference, other than a possible delay, which might be useful for the health care industry. 

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

You are completely full of shit.  

How dumb are you?

You're either dumb, uninformed or a liar.

So you can do exponents.  How impressive.  Your assertions are utterly WRONG, if you know math at all.

Here is a fact PERTINENT to your asinine assertion.

REAL data: 

February 3, 2020: 29  

March 9, 2020: 624

March 11, 2020  938

That is a CDC number above.  

Can YOU do math?  

Apparently you can't even support your own bullshit with the numbers.

If we're going exponentially, which we're not, then on Feb 5, 2 days later as you erroneously claim, we should have had 

58.  

Feb. 7:  116, Feb 9:  232, Feb 11: 464, Feb 13: 928.  

Well we only have 928 to date, 1 month later.  According to you we should have had 2 raised to power of 14 multiplied by 928 at this date in time.  

You're only off by a multiplication factor of 16,384X 

IF your assertions were correct that we are doubling every day, we should have 15,204,352 cases in the US. 

We have 938 according to the CDC.  

In other words you are full of shit.   

He is not full of shit.  The CDC only reports positive tests.  I suspect we have 15 M cases walking around asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, or believing that they have colds or the flu.  The numbers have no choice but to lag actual infections...bigly.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Yes all of the Colorado colleges will finish the semester using on line teaching, Zoom meetings, that sort of thing.  Personally, I think it is an overreaction, given:

* the limited number of cases
* the relatively lesser symptoms for young people
* the undeniable fact that students are going to gather anyway.  I have not heard that they are closing the dorms or Fraternities for instance.

I do not think it is a  PANIC.  It is natural to be cautious in the face of an unknown disease.  I think that the college administrators are in a very difficult place.  Have you heard Gov. Polis's speeches.  I know that he is not our cup o' tea politically, but he seems to be very good at articulating and implementing a reasonable public health response.

Jim

p.s.  I would edit out the limited number of cases.  As noted today and yesterday, I think that there will be deep penetration of this virus into the population.  I basically think this is an overreaction, because the measures take will do no good on view of the measures not taken.  That begs the question of what questions might work?  Short answer - not much in the college and working-age demographics.  We should invest heavily in hardening the nursing homes and hospitals to the extent possible.  

If the kill rate is ultimately determined to be flu-like, society rolls on.
If the kill rate is ultimately determined to be 10x greater than the flu, this is really going to suck, and be truly disruptive across all aspects of society.

Russ, you appear to believe that social distancing, cancelling classes, cancelling sporting events and so on will help.  I am more fatalistic.

Jim  

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I'll hold you to your assertions there.  15 Million walking around with Coronavirus Mr Panic artist #2.

Let's see what happens in 3 weeks, plenty of time for the virus to take its course with people.  

We should have 150 THOUSAND people in the US drop dead.  

My guess?  Ain't gonna' happen which means you are either delusional or hysterical like the others here.  PERIOD!  

2nd case scenario:  This whole thing is WILDLY overblown by the left.

Is that a possibility MR Wizard #2?  

Didn't you read anything I posted yesterday?  I expect 40K deaths, maybe 80K.  I've typed about twenty times now that I expect the final kill rate, after the dust has settled, to be flu-like.  Please try to pay attention.

Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

The fact is I asked for your solution to everything regarding Coronavirus... 

Here's the deal skippy,¹ No one is sure how this pandemic will play out.  It is a new disease.  The range of death and disruption between "worst case scenario" and "pretty much a new flu" is huge.  Simply huge.  Most folks, even Donald J. Trump appear to be taking this seriously.  Prophylactic measures are inconvenient, but surely justified.

You on the other hand are arguing that the coronavirus is a media-hyped nothing burger.  You base your position on the limited number of positive CDC tests when everyone knows that widespread testing is not yet occurring in the US.  Then you challenge everyone who expresses any concern about the pandemic to produce "facts".  You are being obnoxious.  The facts will develop over the next few weeks and months.  Then the scientists will know.  Then those of us with open minds will know too.  It is very possible, although I am skeptical, that the social distancing, cancellations and other prophylactic measures will significantly diminish the spread of this disease.  This is not all about Trump.

Actually, I think that the virus will play into Trump's favor by election day, because the Democrats have only one speed presently; overreach.

Jim

^{1.  kudos to Russ, I like it}

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

No I'm not, you're full of shit, Dippy.

I'm saying that the HYPE is absurd.  Those like you, and I noticed how inconvenient it is for you to avoid answering simple questions, because maybe you don't want to.

I'll ask again.

Did you say there are 15 Million people in the US walking around with Coronavirus or in the world??

You say I don't pay attention, but I can't help it when you post things in such vague fashion.

Maybe you can start with answering my question to you, instead of answering for another leftist here with your smartass remarks.  

The only obnoxious ones are on the left.  

Definitely the world.  Quite possibly in the US.  I am most persuaded by the experts who predict a flu-like infection rate of 70-150M Americans this year.  There was really no need to re-answer you, since my posts have been consistent for a couple of days on this point.  But sometimes it is just easier to repeat oneself.

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I thought you were talking about the United States, that was my inkling.  

So then in 3 weeks when not even close to 150,000 US citizens have died, I'll expect you to get on here and tell the entire A-Mart world how hysterical and wrong you were.  

You can admit that even 1% death rate might be exaggerating the situation, and that all these hysterics and nonsense coming from the left and from your leftist buddy boys here was just that, full blown hysterics.

Then again I won't hold my breath because you've never one time had the OUNCE of character it takes to come on and admit when you've been wrong about something in the past.  

You're too God Damned Arrogant and smug to do that. 

I see I've gotten under your skin.  I only charge $450.00 per hour by the way.  Of course I was talking about the US, take a look at the red circles in the image below.  Anyone with any reading comprehension would know I was talking about the US.  Look at the green circles, anyone with any reading comprehension would also know that this is speculative.