Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

You don't have a brain to think with?  You have to now get input from others?  Why?

I don't need to check with someone else to put forth what I believe. 

My goodness, the above quote explains it all.  I shouldn't be, but I am stunned.

Jim

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

Why? You seem to have what you consider an informed position based on your posts, I see no reason you should be "stunned" that anyone else would.....I know what I believe the situation is as well, are you "stunned" about that as well?

Hi Greg:

Yes, I try to keep informed, read the experts and so on.  Comments on this forum often inform my point of view as well.  It is tough to keep up with a dynamic situation like the current crisis.  I was stunned, because Richard admitted that he makes up his mind with no input from others, no input from experts, no outside input at all.  That is stunning, and it explains a lot about Richard:


"You don't have a brain to think with?  You have to now get input from others?  Why?

I don't need to check with someone else to put forth what I believe."


I'm just reading the words he writes.  If you read them differently, fine.  I am sure Rich will come on to deflect, dodge, mis-quote and so on.  I am sure that he will shout out that he is the most well informed man ever to post on the forum.  But I am just reading the words he wrote.  Quoting them accurately and in their entirety too.  

Jim 

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

I know what I believe the situation is as well, are you "stunned" about that as well?

p.s. Greg,

No, I am not stunned if your position might be that the economic hardship and lasting economic damage caused by the social measures taken to curb the spread of the virus are not economically justified.  I am wrestling with the cost/benefit equation too, and will post on this when I have time.

I would literally be stunned if you, like Richard, came on here and posted that you formed your opinion without input from anyone else.  Divine revelation I guess?

I also would be stunned if you intentionally mis-quoted my "justified economic hardship" as supporting "utter economic collapse."  You have more integrity than that.

Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Don't mischaracteize what I said.  You're lying of course. 

You said this about me:

I was stunned, because Richard admitted that he makes up his mind with no input from others, no input from experts, no outside input at all. 

A total lie of course. When did I ever say that in the history of this forum?? 

Ummm - just today.  


"You don't have a brain to think with?  You have to now get input from others?  Why?
I don't need to check with someone else to put forth what I believe."  Rich Davis, 3/24/2020

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

So you're still avoiding explaning your statement here:

"We all worry about the economic impact.  But, given the huge downside risk to the US/world healthcare system, the economic impact is justified"

What does that mean?  You think we deserve this?  

Hundreds of thousands of people out of work and it is Justified??  

That's pretty Un-American.   

Nice dodge.

"We all worry about the economic impact.  But, given the huge downside risk to the US/world healthcare system, the economic impact is justified" 

Richard thinks the above sentiment is un-american.  I do not.  The US economy is robust, and there will be enormous pent up demand when the crisis has passed.  I remain optimistic that the US, Canadian and literally world-wide civic response to the pandemic will avoid crashing the health care system.  I am out of time for now, but I endorse the following article published by the rather conservative Manhattan Institute.  I'll probably have some time to discuss with anyone who wants discussion tomorrow.

https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-moving-past-the-quarantine

Some snips:

"Public-health experts largely agree that a period of nationwide slowdown—including school closings, remote work, social distancing, and shelter-in-place orders for 80 million Americans—is necessary to curb the spread of Covid-19. As cases have escalated and threaten to overload the health system, these suppression methods are essential to “flatten the curve” of rising hospitalizations to ensure that they do not exceed our hospital capacity.

Yet these efforts come at a frightening economic cost. As in-person contact becomes prohibitively difficult, entire industries—hospitality, restaurants, tourism, and more—have shut down almost completely. Millions of workers are set to lose their jobs. The stock market is in freefall, and bankruptcies loom for both households and corporations. Steep as they are, it’s worth paying these costs to avoid even greater human tragedy. But eventually, we must consider ways to lift quarantines safely and get Americans back to work. It’s essential to use these weeks to prepare for how to do that."


I also strongly agree with the following:

"The most important policy for achieving an end to lockdowns remains mass testing. Since early Covid-19 cases are often asymptomatic..."  

Unlike some, I am optimistic that the US will churn out the tests (and respirators) necessary to support a calculated return to normalcy.  This will take time, but not so much time that the economy is utterly destroyed.  I think Trump is being a bit optimistic, even for me, with an Easter prediction.  Two months is more likely. 

Jim  

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I'll ask you a serious question.  My guess is that you'll avoid it completely.  If you are willing to shut an economy down because this virus MIGHT kill thousands of people, provide a good reason that we don't shut the economies of the world down each and every year because of the flu.

I'll check back for your answer.  

 

I never avoid legitimate questions, even from you.  But first a side point; the economy is not shut down completely, but portions of it are.  You are still making cabinets, but your favorite restaurant is closed.  This is an incredible burden on restaurant owners and staff, along with the many similarly situated businesses.  I get that.  We are an adaptable nation though.  Some of those who are out of work will shift to different positions in different fields for example.  My wife and I are supporting our favorite restaurants with take-out orders.  On a national scale this all helps.  So will the massive and hopefully short-term increase in unemployment payments, small business aid, bail-outs and so on.  We, as a nation will overcome the hardship.

Now, on to your question.  The flu is a known quantity.  It will kill between 40-80k in a given year, mostly those who are old and infirm.  The seasonal flu will never overwhelm the health care system.  Covid-19 might overwhelm the health care system, kill hundreds of thousands, cause thousands of collateral deaths and disrupt the economy over a very long term.  Many experts think so.  India did not just lock their country of 1.5B people down just to take a dig at Donald Trump.  So, we do not shut portions of the economy down for the seasonal flu because this is a known, quantifiable and most importantly manageable event.  We did shut portions of the economy down for Covid-19 because it is an unknown and extremely serious risk, and the best medical science predicts that the cost of doing nothing in lives and disruption could greatly exceed the cost of temporarily shutting down portions of the economy.  There is no way to manage this pandemic without a significant civic response.  
Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

The overreaching and broad based approach by the states run by Democrats, the states that are completely shut down, is a sweeping attack with very little thought involved it seems to me.  
 

I don't understand this at all.  My folks, both in their late 80s, still live in their home in solid red-state Indiana.  They are experiencing the exact same sort of shut-downs as we are in blue Colorado.  Heck, Wyoming has implemented across the board business shut downs the same as we have and no one has ever accused Wyoming of being a state run by Democrats.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

This strategy is how Singapore has been managing the outbreak since day one, and they avoided the chaos almost entirely. My oldest daughter has a brother-in-law who lives and works in Singapore, and while there is a concern, life is, for the most part going on regularly. Why? Because of the early and ongoing tests and quarantine strategy they adopted. There is more to it than that, of course. Not the least of which is they had an infrastructure in place to deal with outbreak after having lived through SARS in 2003. The government also completely covers the cost of the containment. They communicate clearly and consistently; they don't put out the wrong information, and they rally around and support health care workers. This brother-in-law said he's far safer in Singapore than he would be here. I don't doubt it at all.

Hi James:

I don't doubt it at all.  Singapore is one of the most beautiful, clean and literally hygienic city/states on earth.  It is not the unruly and somewhat messy place we call home.  So, I think that the US has a lot of catching up to do, to control the virus, but we'll get there in a few to several weeks.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

One of the oddest things about partisan politics these days is the outright discounting of and disdain for expertise. Both sides participate in this to some degree. Still, it's my opinion that the right is far worse about being hostile to any skilled knowledge that would challenge their political ideology. It's especially striking in this COVID-19 crisis. The outright rejection of expert knowledge and opinion only because it does not reflect favorably on Trump is pretty astounding.

H James:

My own personal view is that the phenomenon you are talking about is pretty limited.  In my office for example, we have a fair number of staunch conservatives, all of whom are working from home, assessing the data, taking this seriously, following the rules and keeping safe.  No one I know is expressing Richard's disdain for expertise.  The conservative mayor of Rich's home town, Colorado Springs, threatened to close the parks today, if people did not quit congregating.  The people in the parks are stupid 20 somethings with spring fever.  The conservative mayor and his advisers take this pandemic very seriously and are obviously listening to the medical experts.  

Trump is rah-rah-ing an early exit from quarantine, but that is just his nature.  The administration and the conservatives in Congress are taking this very seriously and listening to the experts.

Rich is a minority case in other words.

There will be tension between outspoken conservatives who want to minimize damage to the economy and medical experts who want to exit the national quarantine much more slowly.  It is going to get ugly, politically.  I think that argument is necessary though, since the damage to the economy must be assessed and weighed against the risk to the health care system and the health of the citizens.  Finding the proper balance is going to be difficult.

Jim