Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

Ok, I'll correct my original post to show that you were mocking me, not Russ.

Done.

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

And btw, I'm not going to waste any more time with you.  

Prayers answered, or an empty promise?  Time will tell.

This next graph is not my original work, although I have reformatted it.  The flu data is from the CDC and the Covid-19 data is from Worldometer.  This is grim stuff.  

The 2017-2018 Flu season was extraordinarily bad - over 60k deaths in the US.  2017-2018 was the worst flu season in many years.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932018_United_States_flu_season#Analysis_of_the_flu_season  For comparison purposes, the 2011-2012 flu season was mild, only 12k deaths in the US.  In each case the influenza fatalities were spread out over what is customarily defined as a "flu season," lasting about 211 days. 

The red trace shows US Covid-19 fatalities, starting on March 7, when we had 19 fatalities so far.  The slope of the Covid-19 fatalities curve is what is so problematic.  Lots of people getting really sick and dying all at once.  This rate of so many folks getting sick and dying substantially at the same time is what could (or is) overwhelming our health care system. Also, this curve is after all of the social distancing and isolation measures have been implemented for going on two-three weeks.

This graph shows why the huge risk of overwhelming the health care infrastructure with Covid-19 is not present in a typically bad flu season.  With flu, the serious illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths are spread out in time.  Last, it is not like the flu has gone away.  The CDC data so far indicates that 2019-2020 is going to be a really bad season for influenza too.  https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/03/health/flu-week-52/index.html

The President said that this week was going to be bad, with lots of death, and I agree with him.  The next several weeks will probably be bad too.  The total fatalities are up from 10,900 to 12,700 between today and yesterday, and several states have not yet reported today.  I remain hopeful that the total US fatality rate will end up around 100k but it is tough to be that optimistic. 

Why would I spend time graphing and sharing this grim data?  Spinning Rich up is an amusing pastime of course, but that is not the reason.  For me, fussing over this data and visualizing it helps me appreciate that our shared economic sacrifice is necessary and worthwhile.  The nuggets of optimism shown in the graphs, like the slowed doubling rates are comforting.  I'm looking forward to the day when I can post some clearly flattened-out graphs here!  Jim

The daily new cases graph (for the US) is starting to look good.  I think we are very close to or at the peak number of infections per day.  The total mortality looks like it will be a lot less than projected just a week ago.  In Italy and Spain, the mortality rates continued to climb for about a week after the daily infection rate peaked.

Keep your well-washed and socially-isolated fingers crossed!  I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives.

Jim  

Originally Posted by James Brown

The daily new cases graph (for the US) is starting to look good.  I think we are very close to or at the peak number of infections per day.  The total mortality looks like it will be a lot less than projected just a week ago.  In Italy and Spain, the mortality rates continued to climb for about a week after the daily infection rate peaked.

Keep your well-washed and socially-isolated fingers crossed!  I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives.

Jim  

Here are graphs comparing time between the peak of the Spain/Italy daily infection rate curves in red with the peak of the daily mortality curve in green.  The peaks were selected by me via eyeball, so possibly not that accurate.  This demonstrates the week or so lag between the peak of the daily infection curve and the daily mortality curve.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

Here are graphs comparing time between the peak of the Spain/Italy daily infection rate curves in red with the peak of the daily mortality curve in green.  The peaks were selected by me via eyeball, so possibly not that accurate.  This demonstrates the week or so lag between the peak of the daily infection curve and the daily mortality curve.

Jim

Here is where we are in the US, hopefully on the same track as Italy and Spain.  This suggests a lot fewer deaths than if the virus had simply run its course.

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

"I read somewhere that US participation in the aggressive social distancing/closure and other mitigation efforts was close to 90%  This is making a huge difference in the progression of this disease and will save countless lives."
Barr, in an exclusive on FOX news, railed against those "draconian" lockdown measures:
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/491940-barr-says-draconian-lockdown-measures-should-be-reexamined-by-may
Ya all better tank-up on that hydroxychloroquine. In fact, since Michigan is supposed to peak today, I don't understand why, in addition to the extra vents and PPE, they're not getting hydroxychloroquine airlifted to them...

Hi Rod:

I read that article and agree with Barr.  Come May, we will hopefully will be in a position to relax the business closures and so on.  He is not making a firm projection of course.  We will at some point reach stasis with the disease.  We will then be able to open businesses, test, trace and isolate.  Meanwhile the search for therapies goes on at a feverish pace.

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Here's why I don't agree with Barr:
"I think we have to allow people to adapt more than we have and not just tell people to go home and hide under the bed,"
Nobody has said that but when he goes on Fox news and starts crusading about liberties lost and the faithful Fox following swallows it all, you can bet those who watch it will back to their routines before its safe to do so and there's always a strong possibility of a second wave of infection...

His rhetoric was poor in that instance.  But here is why I agree with him:

"Attorney General William Barr late Wednesday suggested that the federal government in May should begin relaxing some of the "draconian" social distancing restrictions imposed throughout the U.S.

Barr said in an interview with Fox News that the U.S. had to be "very careful" to ensure some of the measures being "adopted are fully justified, and there are not alternative ways of protecting people" amid the novel coronavirus outbreak.

"I think, you know, when this — when this period of time is — at the end of April expires, I think we have to allow people to adapt more than we have and not just tell people to go home and hide under the bed, but allow them to use other ways — social distancing and other means — to protect themselves," he said."

I think that we will relax some measures, business closures for example, based upon locale, hopefully in May, certainly in June.  People will slowly start to frequent restaurants again.  You can go back to work.  I am counting on the US being ready to test, trace and isolate - along the lines of Korea by then.  There are a lot of smart people working on this.

Regarding the second wave - of course this is possible.  But the world is our laboratory, and it will be interesting to see how things go in Korea, Israel, China, {Japan} Spain and Italy.  These countries are ahead of us on the curve, and there will be pressure to cautiously return to normalcy there too.  We'll have a better idea by May what works and what does not work in the slow progression to normalcy.  The therapeutics research continues too of course.  There could very well be new therapies like the one out of Israel you mentioned or old therapies that have been adequately demonstrated to work pretty good by May.

I'm not suggesting that we sound an "All Clear" bell on May 1, followed by a massive orgy in the streets of NYC!  I did not get the impression from the article that this is what Barr is talking about either.

Jim

p.s.  I thought Japan, but typed China.  I don't think the data out of China is worth much since it is entirely inconsistent with the rest of the world.

Nice work David!  

My 85 year old mom made me, my brothers, our kids and our spouses masks.  She used some sort of dense batting inside the quilting cotton exterior.  Full pleats, custom straps, the works.  Very stylish.  She found plans on the internet.

This is me with the red-hot Colorado sun on my thinning pate!  

Yep Rich, that's my Audi A-5 Cabriolet; one of the perks of pushing pencils.  (I'm in a grocery store parking lot, not driving, if that is not obvious!)

 

Edit:

In response to Dave's selfie:

Nice solar eclipse photo in the background too!

J