Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

"Such a swift reopening runs counter to the advice of many experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top authority on infectious diseases, who warned again Monday that resuming business too soon risked a fresh spike in infections."
https://www.manufacturing.net/economics/news/21129573/georgia-to-reopen-some-businesses-as-early-as-friday

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

Some thoughts from a fellow Georgian.....I find them relevant and they do a great job of mirroring my own. She puts it much better than I could.

I am going to try again to throw this out. I’ve typed it about twelve times and then stopped. It’s so touchy.

I am seeing so much anxiety about resuming business, and so much anger about continued regulations. People are feeling the need to catapult to one side or the other, then fight the opposition.

Here’s my perspective, from a mainstream medical model. I think a lot of folks have fallen into the idea that social distancing was meant to stop the viral spread. It wasn’t-it was meant to SLOW it while we put medical infrastructure in place. It has worked. We have, in most parts of Georgia, not been overwhelmed like we likely would have been without protective measures. In the meantime, our testing procedures have gotten better. We’ve increased our ventilator count. We’ve gotten a little better handle on PPE supply chains, and many have helped by making masks and gowns. Phoebe in Albany has a second COVID-19 ICU opened, and Atlanta has a field hospital ready to go. It’s not perfect, but it’s much better than it was seven weeks ago.

A vaccine is a long way off. At some point, people have to be systematically exposed to begin the building of (hopeful) herd immunity. We will likely begin to experience a real increase in cases after reopening. Ideally, that exposure is controlled and calculated, in phases, to allow our medical community to respond adequately, and reduce the number of severe or fatal cases. That’s where we are.

Whether you feel like Georgia is opening too soon, or not soon enough, we were never going to social distance this thing into nonexistence. You now need to proceed as your health, wallet, and conscience allow.

If you are medically vulnerable, you do not need to be a part of what is about to happen. Stay home if you can. If you’re not, or if your financial vulnerability trumps your health concerns, you need to proceed in ways that continue to protect yourself, and the elderly and medically vulnerable around you.

All of us need to calm down. Quit telling people who are financially struggling that they don’t care about human lives. Quit telling people who are truly at risk of dying from this virus that they are cowering in fear. Remember that until you’ve walked in someone else’s shoes, you should probably be careful in your judgements and subsequent harsh words.

We don’t HAVE to choose an either/or proposition and fight. We could choose other ways to be. Examples include but are not limited to:

“I think this may be too soon, so I will continue to shelter myself, and pray/make masks/ check on those who can’t.”

“I really need to go back to work, so I will do so, but I will be careful and try to protect myself, my family, and those around me with healthy strategies.”

See how those positions allow each of us to do what we need to, and also respect those who are choosing differently?

One thing that allows us to do this is humility. I can acknowledge that I am not an epidemiologist/economist/whatever, that I am making decisions based on my understanding of complex subjects and my own personal health and financial situation, that I am not all knowing, always right, and an expert in all fields, and that each person around me is doing their best too. We can make different choices and still be a supportive community. We can learn and evolve in our understanding of these issues.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Has anyone else noticed how Trump has altogether quit talking about it too?

I finished a book about the flu epidemic of 1918 last night. The Great Influenza by John M. Barry.

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is how history repeats itself. Our politicians have learned nothing over the decades since regarding the proper way to respond to a global health crisis. Politicians back then were as incompetent or even more so than today. Even back then, politicians were peddling snake-oil and encouraging the use of typhoid vaccines, and even quinine of all things! Their reasoning seemed to be if it worked on one disease, then it might just work on this one. Then they would convince themselves it worked regardless of results. Just incredible how our politicians have learned nothing.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I agree with Jim that the above sounds like a reasonable approach BUT there are many that don't fall into either category. Examples of the latter include those protesters who think the whole thing is a hoax or that if you don't agree with them then you need to reside in communist China. I could give you more examples of the latter but I hope you get my point because these are types of people who can get you or themselves and others sick with Covid19.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I suppose the question is Jim, do you think NYC is an anomaly or is it a cautionary tale? Given the transmissibility of the virus, wouldn't any place eventually become another NYC given enough time? What may have made NYC unique is its density and its highly prevalent use of mass transit? Don't misunderstand. I'm all for returning to "normal" as soon as possible. There is a lot of real pain out there. For example, my employer will be furloughing 1/3 of its 10,000+ global workforce starting tomorrow, and that could include me. It will certainly include some of my friends and colleagues. So, I understand all too well what is at stake.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi James:

Good question.  I personally think the answer is yes, reopening will cause the virus to spread, at least until we have a vaccine.  Maybe our states will eventually reach 1000 deaths/M - I doubt it though, NYC is somewhat of a special case for the density and transportation reasons we discussed a week or two ago.

Flattening the curve does not necessarily reduce the total number of death and ICU admissions.  It spreads them out over time so that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.  You know this, but I think some of the national voices have forgotten.  Given enough time everyone who would have gotten sick is going to get sick, but not all at once.  That is the definition of success, until we have a vaccine and effective therapies.

Here is a feminist CNN voice living in NYC who is out of her depth, she cites the Southern states as risking lives, and leaves Colorado out of it, probably because we are a liberal bastion nowadays.  (More about that in my next post.)  She thinks the Southern R governors are ending social distancing.  That is not true. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/gop-governors-dangerous-covid-19-response-filipovic/index.html

Best wishes, I sure hope that you are not furloughed.  

Jim

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

James, I'm not saying this to be critical of you or to avoid your question, but I honestly do not pay a great deal of attention to what Trump says on a daily basis. I just happened to hear him address the question about the GA governor. I'm fairly confident that he'll be re-elected in November. 
We've had 7 people around here(Rapides parish) that have supposedly died from the virus since this all began. The Democrat governor wants everybody to wear masks in public, although the deaths in LA are concentrated in a few areas. 
People around here are, as much as possible, going about their daily business. I was by Sam's earlier and there were quite a few people there, some with masks, many without. Road construction in the area is keeping me home more than a "stay at home order"; I have to drive 1.5 miles out of my way to get to a grocery store.

I frankly don't think that a lot of people around here are overly concerned about the virus; they're just tired of the inconvenience. It's not at the forefront of my mind.

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

Un f'ing believable. I didn't watch any news yesterday and when I got into work this morning my partner was waiting for me to go off on him. When I didn't he told me what Trump said and it really didn't register until I heard it on the news on my way to fetch produce. 

Tillerson was right.  He's a F'ing moron. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33QdTOyXz3w

To quote Prez Donny: "I have a good you know what."

BTW-Hello everyone. I figured it was a good time to end my exile from this forum and AM. I do have a few things to sell, both astronomy and musically related.

I did reread the last weeks posts and see someone else is on a little self imposed vacation.  LOL. He does get riled up. 

Oh, My grocery salesman was just here. I asked if he had any of the new Clorox Chewable's.