Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Speaking of data and graphs, here is an interesting story in the New York Times.

TL; DR: Total number of deaths in hard hit states are much higher than normal for the same time last year, and officially reported Coronavirus deaths does not come close to accounting for all of the increase.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html


U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests


Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. These increases belie arguments that the virus is only killing people who would have died anyway from other causes. Instead, the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years.

If you look at the provisional deaths from all causes, death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period. In New York City, the home of the biggest outbreak, the number of deaths over this period is more than three times the normal number. (Recent data suggests it could have reached six times higher than normal.)

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll

Another damning chart:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/?fbclid=IwAR3rImv6VlkiupBIACZQQauTiwPw8GtQgHXx22RiYmo9lb6qypwHiIVgkEc

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Mel,

It's looking like the Tara Reade story is a nothing-burger as you guys like to say. 

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Hi Jim,

I don't deny there is a difference in coverage. However, it's hard to imagine Biden being more open and transparent about these allegations than he has been. I'm ready to change my mind if serious evidence arises that would change reasonable minds.

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Mel, I just wonder what percent of the US adult population actually trusts the media?

Originally Posted by James Lacey

It's worth noting, again, that Trump has dozens of cases of severe sexual misconduct leveled against him, and it has not received the scrutiny that it necessarily warrants either. Intellectual honesty demands that Republicans who are so worried about the accusations against Biden should be at least as worried about the allegations against Trump. Still, they are not and have not been. Trump has never seriously addressed any of the claims against him other than lying about them, attacking his accusers, and using hush-money to silence them. This behavior is in stark contrast to how Biden is handling only one claim.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Hi Jim,

Similarly, Biden is no Newt Gingrich, Dennis Hastert, or Tim Murphy. We all know neither party has a monopoly on sexual misconduct or political hypocrisy. Still, despite a two-week delay, or ignoring it until they couldn't anymore, or however you want to characterize it, there is a profound difference between Biden's handling of the accusations against him, and how Trump conducted himself. I think that difference matters too. It is undoubtedly a gauge of each man's character, if nothing else.

Originally Posted by James Lacey

We are ending mitigation before we have shown steady declines only for political reasons and not because public health officials think it's a good idea. 

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Once again, we shouldn't forget there's a 5-10 day incubation period for Covid19. So there's a big lag time for stats to catch-up with relaxed social distancing and other mitigation measures. That's likely why we're seeing marked increases in projections of the death toll in the revised modelings...

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Rod:

I'm not denying that there will be an uptick in infections and deaths as mitigation is relaxed.  But let's keep an eye on the prize.  The goal of mitigation was to flatten the curve such that the health care system would not be overwhelmed.  The goal is not to minimize death at any and all economic cost.  Check out Colorado's hospitalization and death curves, below.  If we have a serious second wave, it will be quite obvious, and steps can be taken.  The GA graphs Greg linked show pretty much the same story there.  There is obviously risk to re-opening an economy, even if the re-opening is carefully planned and executed.  But the risk is well worth it in view of the economic, social and mental health cost of continued shut down.

Jim