Posts Made By: Greg Shaffer

Here is how I see in the simplest terms possible based on the information I have seen so far.....

Most people are going to have very manageable cases of this virus. The problem is that it is so very contagious, and so many people will get it all at the same time. Our hospitals and clinics simply can't manage those kind of numbers. About 5% will need hospital care, around 2% (perhaps less) will not survive.

The real issue here is about flattening the curve so that those who wont survive it without professional care can get it. Managing the curve to the best possible outcome is what it is all about.

I am getting a little tired of hearing "why wont Trump declare a national shut down of all but essential services and make everyone stay home?".....This is NOT a one size fits all problem is why besides the fact that the 10th amendment limits his power in this issue . He and his administration have stated they will leave these decisions to the states and local governments thus respecting the fact that one size does NOT fit all medically or economically. What fits Boston MA does not fit Boston GA simply put.

Originally Posted by James Brown

Me too, but why are you refusing to answer my question?

You didnt ask me but I suspect Rich and I would have similar perspectives......Humans for the most part have no natural resistance to this virus therefor even with the fact that I am sure there will be exceptions as everyone is not the same ie some small percentage will be naturally resistant to it, the majority of the population will catch it unless a vaccine is developed. Barring exceptions it is not a case of if but rather a case of when.

No it isnt.....out of 306,000 confirmed cases with 8300 deaths as of today that is approx a 2.3% death rate. For weeks now everyone here has been saying the infection numbers are running way behind the reports, with some claiming the actual infections are in the millions and likely is several million.....even if you just double the reported number that puts the death rate just over 1%.....but of course one shouldnt let reality get in the way of fear mongering right?

Read it and weep Rod lol

306,000+ confirmed cases, 8300+ confirmed deaths, 1.5 million confirmed tests, 25 deaths per million population reported in real time as the numbers come in for the USA.....updated several times a day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2PLFLsa2QoTI0pYENRZ7AQPxshYuq7jcouYd_0N1kn88C_35kziCHU5ow#countries

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I think the data on world meters is accurate. It certainly correlates well with other sites like the COIVD Tracking project.

However, the 25 death per million is just (8250 / 330) ~ 25 since there are approximately 330 million people in the US.

The current mortality rate, given (8250 deaths / 306,997 confirmed cases) X 100 ~ 2.7%

I do agree though that the denominator in the above mortality rate calculation is still a big unknown and likely much larger. My wife's employer and her husband and children, a family of 5, have all had a terrible case of the flu, and it's possible it's COVID, but they can't get tested!

At last a little common sense comes around.....if you only double that 306,997 that would put the mortality rate at 1.35% and I have no doubt the real number of infections as yet unreported is a LOT higher than double the 306,997......and you are right it is still a glaringly big unknown. The real figure could be well under 1%

So far approx 0.0025% of the US population have died from this.....the bottom line is managing the curve will determine the ultimate result. If we manage to restrict the infection rate to a level that is manageable by the health system without completely wrecking the economy we will be both lucky and successfully save a lot of lives. All this picking at details is trivial......

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I'll explain further what I mean by "dumbshit":
The governor in the state above said she didn't issue a stay at home order "because we are not California". Then, she changed her mind when it was pointed out to her that the death rate in her state is essentially same as it is in California and may accelerate ahead of it...
The governor in Georgia issued his after stating yesterday that he didn't know asymptomatic carriers could spread the coronavirus.

Get it right if you are going to run your mouth Rod......The Gov of GA announced last Wed that he was implementing the "stay at home" order and it would go into effect as of 6pm est last Friday.....He did however open the beaches back up yesterday (stipulating as long as the recommended social distancing was adhered to) after some local governments had closed them.

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

What a hypocritical and nonsensical statement...For starters you compare the numbers of dead to the total of the US population and then you have the nerve to state, in your opinion, "all this picking at details is trivial". In fact, why stop there, Greg, why don't you compare the numbers of dead to the entire population on the planet? It'll definitely get that number even lower so you can post that one, too. Would anyone in their right mind care about that?
And, how about managing the infection rate? You can mitigate the latter through stay at home orders but EIGHT Republican governors refuse to do so. Trump said we're in a war against the corona virus but you don't go to war with 42 states, you need all 50 on board.The surgeon general just said this week is going to be our "Pearl Harbor moment", do you get that?

Fuck off Rod.....what I said is factual and your nitpicking, histrionics and partisan flag waving in here IS trivial.....

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Why don't you tell that to the surgeon general? Maybe you can do a duet with Darian?

Why? I dont see him acting the fool like you.....and I am sure he is perfectly capable of deducing 8400 deaths out of 330 million is approx 0.0025%

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Golly gee, Greg, that's great! How about giving us the number for total deaths worldwide out of the world's population. I bet it would be even less. And it would inspire confidence and prevent fear-mongering. Why don't you post it along with your 0.0025% analysis on youtube and or call Fox news. Maybe you could share it with Dr Drew. While you're at it, contact the John Hopkins coronavirus tracking website and ask them to add as a new parameter so we can all follow it.
Ya gotta hand it to Greg...

The CDC has been providing that calculation world wide country by country all along......perhaps you should go tell them it isnt relevant..... lol