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Posts Made By: James Brown

May 15, 2020 05:20 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

My guess is that part of the Texas up-tick is timing.  Texas has always had an abnormally low infection rate.  Perhaps they nipped the infection in the bud, not because Abbott is a genius and Cuomo is a fool, but because the infection took hold in NYC early, before anyone knew enough to do anything.  Texas had time to get in front of the infection.  See the transmission charts James posted yesterday.

The NY infection rate while still high is dramatically declining as illustrated below.  I suspect that this is because of the continued lock down, and because lots of New Yorkers have had the disease and are at least somewhat immune.  It will be important to watch how fast and how high the Texas infection rate climbs.

Jim  

May 15, 2020 05:44 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

"...or even Trump is ignoring the scientists". If you've been watching the trirade from Fox news against Fauci followed by Trump's latest comments, they're not only ignoring him, they're down right attacking him...
Hi Rod:

I have to admit that I have not been watching Fox news, nor do I get Trump's tweets, so I might be missing some bad stuff.

Jim

May 15, 2020 10:12 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


I believe that we would be much further on a national strategy for reopening the economy that included test, trace, and isolation. No one thinks that shutting down the economy forever is a solution.
Hi James:

You and Russ make good points.  I am sure that there are idiots behaving badly as Russ notes, although I have not been watching TV news so I don't see that first hand.  I am not so sure a federal strategy is all that useful.   The differences between Montana and New York are immense.  The nuts and bolts of reopening have to be developed and the state and local level.  In my state at least, the counties are able to implement more restrictive plans and rules as needed.  It seems to be working pretty well.

Jim

May 15, 2020 10:27 PM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by Russ Carroll


The problem is that ignoramuses on the Trump bandwagon are not promoting "let's be safe but reopen and just take our chances because the damage is too great to the economy" 

No, they are saying Fauci is lying, Bill Gates is the anti-Christ (literally), cases are over-reported (even Trump says this), and basically acting like this is a hoax, even though that term has left their lexicon more or less. That is all a lie and has no basis in anything. People were seen in restaurants and bars in Wisconsin without masks, gloves, or distancing from one another after their courts threw out the stay-at-home order by the Governor. That is just sheer stupidity and asking for trouble.
Hi Russ:

This stuff is an embarrassment, but is it a problem?  The graphs demonstrate that enough folks behaved prudently to flatten the curve.  No doubt incautious behavior is and will be increasingly present, but at high enough level to overwhelm the health care system?  I sure have not seen anything like that here and I am confident that most everyone appreciates the continued need for caution. 

In other words, it is pretty easy for a reporter to find one bar full of knuckle-heads, but is that indicative of the majority of Wisconsin's attitude?

Jim

May 16, 2020 12:54 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


Hi Jim,

Ethics and integrity in leadership are essential, and it certainly matters during a crisis. The example set by Trump and the now apparent willingness of all us just to shrug our shoulders and say, "Well, that's just Trump being Trump," is what enables all of the bad behavior that Russ pointed out. We should never normalize or accept that the right can smear a person like Dr. Fauci for political purposes. The chaotic and dyslexic response by the White House and Trump is not helpful. For example, Trump began his remarks while visiting a PPE factory in PA yesterday by mocking and trivializing the measures that his own White House and the CDC recommended. This event was an official tax-payer funded White House event. He took cheap shots at the press, railed against "globalists," claimed that coronavirus testing was overrated, and said it was a beautiful thing to see nurses running into death just like soldiers running into bullets. He then said, "When you test, you have a case. Whey you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn't do any testing, we would have very few cases." Oh, and he never wore a mask either. It's hard to imagine that any of this behavior is helpful.

Regarding the knuckleheads in Wisconsin, it only takes one asymptomatic person to turn a gathering like that into a super-spreader event. In South Korea, one person infected 53 other people while bar-hopping. In an incredible feat of public health prowess, the South Koreans found and separated all of these people and prevented what would have been a severe outbreak. To do so, they had to test many tens-of-thousands of people in a short amount of time. Even after having to deal with this virus for five months now, there is no way the US could pull this off anywhere. South Korea's unemployment rate has remained below 5% while ours is moving towards 20%. The most successful countries have serious national test, trace and isolate protocols in place.
Hi James:  

I agree with your post.  I want to comment on the bolded part.  Although I agree with your sentiment, I have to point out that unjust smearing is simply an ingrained part of the American political scene.  You can rail against it, but who is really the Pollyanna then?  cool  Counter examples from the left are legion; for example, is Governor Kemp really engaging in "human sacrifice"?   https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-georgia-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic/610882/

You follow Trump's dysfunction much closer than I do.  I'll concede that his behavior is not helpful.  I don't think it makes as much difference as you do.

South Korea is remarkable - but you are arguably cherry picking an unreasonable model to hold us up against.  There are a lot of differences between the social structures of S. Korea and the US.  Korea has recent experience with SARS, I think.  Even given our haphazard and poorly executed response, the US death rate/M is significantly less that most European countries.  There are a lot of moving parts here that call any country v. country comparison into question.

I can agree that our response at the federal level was haphazard and I can certainly agree that Trump is saying foolish things.  I can agree that the politicization of this event by both sides is repugnant.    I can't agree that a better federal response would have made more than a marginal difference in the outcomes we are experiencing.  For example, I don't blame Cuomo for the world-leading1 1500 deaths/M in NY.  I doubt you blame him either.  Sometimes the pudding hits the fan and you do the best you can with a lousy situation.  7 weeks ago a collapsed health care system was a 50/50 possibility or maybe even more likely.  The US did pretty good.

Jim 

1.  Assuming the death toll in Wuhan is not something astronomical/M.  We'll never know.

May 16, 2020 12:58 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

I must brag that I am proud to have started this thread.  Lots of good content.  Lots of enjoyable and well-informed points of view presented cogently.  Minimum amounts of vitriolic ranting.

Thanks, 

Jim

May 16, 2020 02:32 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey


We shut down to save lives and spare our health-care system. Mission-accomplished. Great job. I credit state and local leaders and the American people for that success. However, the federal government squandered the time bought by this effort. There is no reason we could not have a test, trace, and isolate program such as in places like South Korea and Taiwan. I don't buy the "cultural differences" argument. No one thought Americans would social-distance and isolate as we have either. What do we get instead? All kinds of false promises about a vaccine. I will be happy to be wrong, but the truth is a vaccine normally takes ten years to develop. If done in 4 years, that would be amazingly fast -- two years insane and one year impossible. Not to mention that for months only high-risk individuals will get it, and it may be years more before its available to the general public. Instead of all this fairy tale nonsense, why aren't we working on test, trace, and isolate procedures and protocols? It makes no sense to me.
Hi James:

I agree regarding the vaccine timetable.  I know that HIV is a special case, but there is no vaccine available and probably never will be for several reasons. 

I'm curious why are you saying that we are not working on test, trace and isolate procedures?  I know that testing, tracing and isolating is one leg of the CO phase 2 and phase 3 plans.  Also, according to worldometer, the US has administered 32,877 test/M.  This is middle of the pack for most countries.  Korea has only administered 14,177 tests/M.

Maybe the Koreans are better at the trace and isolate parts, I do not doubt that, but this is a long way from saying that we are "not working" on test, trace, and isolate procedures and protocols.  I am pretty sure that in Colorado at least we are working on those protocols.  I have no idea if we are any good at it, but I know that the state an local authorities are working on it.

Jim

May 16, 2020 07:53 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

One of the benefits of working from home is that I'm done with work at 5:00 if not before.  That means spending time with the family, cooking, and in my case chasing humming birds around with a camera.  This is yesterday.  Not as nice today.  Jim

May 16, 2020 07:56 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown
One of the benefits of working from home is that I'm done with work at 5:00 if not before.  That means spending time with the family, cooking, and in my case chasing humming birds around with a camera.  This is yesterday.  Not as nice today.  Jim
And then, this fellow comes along at dusk.  A sphinx moth.  He is almost a perfect insect version of a hummingbird.  Same identical niche.  His wings go so fast you can's see them, just like the hummers.  Just a bit more quiet and shy.  I was using a flash.  Check out the long nectar-sipping proboscis.  Totally cool creature.    

Have a great weekend!

Jim

May 16, 2020 07:56 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

And then, this fellow comes along at dusk.  A sphinx moth.  He is almost a perfect insect version of a hummingbird.  Same identical niche.  His wings go so fast you can's see them, just like the hummers.  Just a bit more quiet and shy.  I was using a flash.  Totally cool creature.    

Have a great weekend!

Jim
Here you get an idea of his wing speed.