Posts Made By: James Brown

I've put together Daily New Death charts for each state inhabited by a regular A-mart politicker.  (If I missed your state, my apologies, going from memory here.  Also, I know that Canada is not a state, but I did not want to leave David out.)  (Most of the y-axis limits are about the same, but be careful when looking at that.)  

Many states are showing a significant upswing in new infections.  Will this translate into new hospitalizations and new deaths?  Hard to say, there are a lot of factors involved here.  I suspect that most states are doing a pretty good job protecting old and vulnerable populations.  So, I see a lot of good trends in most of these graphs.  Texas is the biggest concern.  California is probably second.  These two states have massive urban centers with high density populations.  Also, the summer heat is driving folks into the air conditioned indoors.  I also suspect that these two states are enforcing social distancing, masks and such at a more aggressive pace than GA or LA, for example, but I've not studied that in any detail.  I did look at the hospitalization data, and both states have ICU and ventilator availability, although it could get tight in Dallas.

James, what do you think is up with Texas?   Even though the trend looks bad, the actual deaths per population count are still remarkably lower than other big states.

Jim

Originally Posted by Mel Maki

People on Biden's team support banning for-profit private charter schools? Would it be so terrible if your kid found a better school?

Hi Mel:

I not expert in these issues, but my kids went to a charter school through 6th grade, so I know something about Colorado charter schools at least. 

A charter is a public school run by a parent board.  The county paid us something like 80% of the per-pupil funds spent by the public school district on a regular public school.  So, I am not sure that a "for-profit, private" charter school is even a thing.  Wouldn't that just be a "private school?"  Maybe just a mis-communication between us two. 

If Biden is trying to ban for-profit private schools, he has no chance.  He would just be pandering to the teacher's union.

If Biden is trying to ban public charter schools, he is stepping into a state's right's issue big time, and runs the risk of alienating the upper middle class suburban voter block, which he currently owns, along with pandering to the teacher's union.

Jim   

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

The market reacts to the ruling on Trump's taxes:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/investing/stock-market-supreme-court-trump/index.html

Hi Rod:

I love your "market reacts..." posts, the ones you submit now and then, whenever there is bad news on the Covid-19 front or when Trump does something stupid.   Your posts make me smile when the stocks then rise for the next few days!  I hate to point things like this out, because it might jinx the market... But still, considering the unprecedented challenges that the country has faced recently, I'll gladly accept the current stock market, especially the tech sector!  Jim

p.s.  As we speak, from March 23, the DOW is up 40% , the NASDAQ is up 54% and the S& 500 is up 42%.  I sure hope I don't regret making this post on Monday!

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Frankly, I'm amazed, although pleased, the market is doing as well as it is, at least for now. 

I completely agree.

Have a great weekend!

Jim

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Jim, what is it about Biden that supposedly appeals to these people? What advantage would his presidency be for them or are they insulated from a Democrat takeover of the government?

Hi Darian:

I think there are a couple of factors, and some are very strong points in my opinion.  (My opinion only)  First, Biden is not Trump.  Trump's abrasiveness is incredibly off-putting to a lot of Rs and moderate Ds, including tons of middle-class and upper middle-class women with school age kids.  Some people like Trump's abrasiveness, some hate it.  We should all recognize that fact and accommodate it, (in my opinion).

Second, the middle and upper middle class suburban crowd would not mind a return to the Obama years.  Biden has not campaigned much yet, but that is a strong suit of his.  

On the merits of a Biden presidency, I think that James, Jim, Rod and Russ have made many compelling points over the last few years that show exactly why Biden is likely to do very well with the college educated, white, suburban, middle-class and upper middle-class demographic.

For myself, I don't buy into the D takeover of government "risk" argument.  I've always voted R, but the Obama and Clinton years were not so bad, no matter what the doomsayers on the right thought would happen.  As you know, I'm a big believer in the US system and feel strongly that it overcomes the particular faults of the president, whomever he, and hopefully in 2024; she, might be.  In the big picture at least.

Jim  

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

A reminder for everyone here that you predicted the collapse of markets not only in the US, but worldwide the day after Donald Trump was elected President..

Hmm..... wrong again.  Shocking! 

Hi Rich:

Actually that was not Rod.  It was legendary arrogant tool Paul Krugman. 

Take care and don't get sunburned this weekend!

Jim

Consider the graphs below.  Florida and Brazil are spiking, but early disaster zones New York and Italy are settled into nice low infection rates with no spikes whatsoever.  Why would this be?  I personally do not think the answer is that New York and Italy are that much more fastidious about social distancing.  These locales have relaxed the rules somewhat, the same as most states.  One theory I find plausible is that herd immunity kicks in for Covid 19 at a much lower infection level than thought.  It is well known that many folks get Covid 19 and are asymptomatic.  These folks can contribute to herd immunity though.   Plus the behavior of the herd matters.  Masks, hand washing, social distancing and so on are behaviors that in combination with a lower herd immunity threshold could explain the NY and Italy graphs. 

One thing is certain, there is no vaccine, so the lack of a current spike in any of the early disaster states (NY, MA, NJ, Ct) must be attributable to something else.  If a surge occurs later this summer in one of these states or countries, it will blow up this theory of course!  Time will tell.  Jim

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/07/herd-immunity-coronavirus/614035/

 https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/06/200623111329.htm

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=239154

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

"Plus the behavior of the herd matters.  Masks, hand washing, social distancing and so on are behaviors that in combination with a lower herd immunity threshold could explain the NY and Italy graphs."
Behaviors you don't see in states where cases are spiking in many instances and where bars opened early on like in Florida, California and Texas.. 

Hi Rod:

Could be, but my understanding from folks in California is that the bars have re-closed and people are taking their distancing obligations seriously.  Here, I went to the Safeway grocery this weekend and 100% of the customers were wearing masks.  The store was signed. "no shirt, shoes, or mask, no entrance."  What do you see in your neck of the woods?  

Jim

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

........421 to 24 across the USA. .  Shocking!!   

Oh, wait, that's 421 Conservative-leaning to 24 Liberal.....    forgive the error.  Must have been my liberal bias....

https://www.niemanlab.org/2020/07/hundreds-of-hyperpartisan-sites-are-masquerading-as-local-news-this-map-shows-if-theres-one-near-you/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

Dave

Your liberal bias is well known and appreciated David, please never change!  But about the link above...  Yikes.  So, according to them, the "Aurora Guide" an annually published local advertising rag from the east suburbs of Denver, is hyper-partisan and conservative?  I'd have never known... Maybe the authors are fudging a bit?  

The Aurora Guide is the kind of publication you get for free at the airport!  I guess from the authors' point of view the Aurora Guide, being a freebie advertising and civic rah-rah magazine,  which I guess is sort of a capitalistic enterprise, is therefore inherently and irredeemably conservative?  Certainly the Aurora Guide is not calling for Marxist revolution and blood in the streets.  Or maybe I missed the dog whistles.  

You be the judge of this "hyper-partisan site masquerading as local news":

https://www.pageturnpro.com/Brock-Media/94858-Aurora-Guide-2020-21/sdefault.html#page/1

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Are all the pollsters part of this plot too? 

Hi James:

Your post got three separate unhinged rants in reply!  I doubt it is a record, but still, pretty good.  Here is something Richard can not comprehend. 

(a)  True statement:  The press is biased.  I though the Bari Weiss resignation letter was entirely credible, tragic, moving and true.  Bad on the NYT.  

(b)  True Statement:  (paraphrasing you and Russ)  Trump's goose may be entirely cooked because of his own words and actions not because of press bias.  

Both these things can be true!  Rich will never get it.  FWIW I am not as confident as you and Russ that Trump is actually toast.  Right now, the Biden camp has sheltered Biden such that Trump is running against "not Trump"  and is losing.  At some point the voters are going to want to see what Biden is really made of, and that will potentially swing this race back toward Trump.  Lotta time between now and then.

Jim