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RICHARD COFER

Lunar Occultation of Jupiter (Egress)

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Posts Made By: James Brown

July 27, 2020 10:15 PM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Send these thugs to my house.  I've got weapons ready for these morons.

They'll get a taste of what firepower is. 
Deleted

July 28, 2020 03:15 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Says the man who is so blinded with his Covid 19 Graphs and Charts, that he dismisses out of hand every other contrary fact that doesn't support his warped view of the danger to the public!  LOL tongue

BTW, just for your info, the facts are that in total 35 children have died of Covid since it came on the scene. 

And this: IF under 70 years of age in the US, your odds of dying from Covid are 1 in 2500. 

Source for the above fact:  Dr. Scot Atlas Former head of Neuroradiology at Stanford University Hospital. 

Contrarily 166 Pediatric deaths had been attributed to the Ordinary flu this year before the CDC stopped counting FLU deaths back in early April.

My guess is that there are probably over 300 Pediatric Deaths from the Flu this year.

My math tells me even at 166, that's 4 1/2 X the rate of death by FLU, yet we're locking down Schools for the rest of the year it looks like, and I'm certain you are on board with that, since you've become so enamored with out leftist governor.  wink

And P.S. you said this:  "That's not how it works in the real world".

It strikes me that you haven't lived in the REAL world regarding Covid since the Panic mongers began pushing their lockdowns. 
What in the world are you talking about?  I strongly favor reopening all of the public schools.  There is little or no incremental risk to the children, and minor risk to the teachers.  The social cost of keeping the schools closed is enormous.  I would exempt teachers over the age of 60 or so, assuming there are any teachers in that demographic.  I am afraid you are tilting at windmills again.

Rich, your internet persona is annoying at the best of times, but one of the worst things you do, and you do it all the time, is make garbage up and attribute it to someone else on the forum.  I have never argued for the schools to remain closed.  This is something you fabricated and got wrong.  I don't expect you to man up to your error, that is beyond you.  Next you'll move the goalposts.

Jim

July 28, 2020 03:25 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Richard Davis
My math tells me even at 166, that's 4 1/2 X the rate of death by FLU, yet we're locking down Schools for the rest of the year it looks like, and I'm certain you are on board with that, since you've become so enamored with out leftist governor.  wink
Speaking of our governor, guess what he actually thinks (spoiler; only the opposite of what Rich implied he thinks):

"While the case for masks has become a scientific consensus, there’s an emerging controversy over plans to reopen schools in Colorado. Many teachers argue it’s not safe, including Grace Koenigbauer, who teaches English at Conifer High School in Jefferson County.

“More than anything I want to be back there, at school… but at what cost?” she said. “I feel like I’m in a real rock and a hard place because my income is very important for my family’s survival. I feel like I don’t have a choice and I really do think teachers are in a position of once again making sacrifices for the greater good.”

Polis said teachers face the same risks and choices as other workers.

“This is really hard for everybody. It’s really hard for people who work in restaurants, in retail, trying to decide, is it worth risking my health or risking my job? It’s hard for, really, people across society. And of course, that means it's hard for educators. It's hard for teachers. It's a difficult decision to make.”

The key is to keep schools “as safe as reasonably possible, given the fact that we’re in a pandemic,” Polis said. And in the meantime, he said “I believe that we can’t interrupt education, we can’t sacrifice our future and our children’s future just because of the pandemic.”

Jerod Polis July 14.

July 28, 2020 04:00 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


I have a joke about windmills since Rich tilts at them, and Trump hates them, but no is ever a fan of it.
James, I think you need to get back to work!  cool

July 28, 2020 04:03 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


Real Clear Politics Averages for this week:

RCP Average 7/9 - 7/24 -- -- 50.6 41.3 Biden +9.3

CBS News/YouGov 7/21 - 7/24 1401 LV -- 51 41 Biden +10

Harvard-Harris 7/21 - 7/23 1932 RV -- 55 45 Biden +10

Rasmussen Reports 7/15 - 7/21 2500 LV 2.0 47 45 Biden +2

The Hill/HarrisX 7/17 - 7/20 2829 RV 1.8 45 38 Biden +7

FOX News 7/12 - 7/15 1104 RV 3.0 49 41 Biden +8

ABC News/Wash Post 7/12 - 7/15 673 LV -- 54 44 Biden +10

CNBC/Change Research (D)* 7/10 - 7/12 1258 LV 2.8 51 41 Biden +10

Quinnipiac 7/9 - 7/13 1273 RV 2.8 52 37 Biden +15

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 7/9 - 7/12 900 RV 3.3 51 40 Biden +11
But James, if you factor in 15-25% of the respondents lying to the pollsters, then Trump wins in a landslide!  Heck, if you sample the boys down at the gun shop, Trump wins unanimously!

Jim

July 28, 2020 04:17 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer
You guys must be forgetting that historically quite a few candidates for President have shown a clear 10% lead in the polls several months prior (including about now) and lost dramatically.....
Yes, early polling is sometimes wrong.  Heck, the late polling was wrong in 2016.  Still, if I were a big-time Trump supporter, I'd rather see him up in the polls than down.

Jim

July 28, 2020 05:11 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I didn't make up any garbage, I simply made a guess at your inkling towards the schools since you haven't mentioned it before.
Ok, you guessed at my position, quite wrongly, and then wasted dozens of lines arguing with your blown guess.  It was a short post for you.  Does that make you feel better?

Speaking of moving the goal posts - did you notice how you pivoted to Covid 19 when we were discussing the McCloskeys?   Does this mean that you agree with me regarding the McCloskeys but were afraid to say so?  I hope that is it.  It is clearly against the law to brandish a weapon, unless you can legitimately assert self defense.  Self-defense is a complicated a fact question.  My hunch is that the McCloskeys will win on self defense, but it is going to be a close shave.  No objective person has the facts yet. 

Jim 

July 28, 2020 05:15 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

I look at all evidence and make an informed, reasoned decision.
Hogwash.  Laughable.  You have not considered the position of the demonstrators in the McCloskey case one bit.  

Jim

July 28, 2020 05:36 AM Forum: Politics

The Trump Wallace Redux

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer
I am really starting to get dangerously angry at all of it.......
Hi Greg:  Don't get angry, the US will survive Trump and Biden both. 

I was curious about the quote so I Googled it.  The original is by H.L. Mencken:

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

― H.L. Mencken, Prejudices: First Series 1919


I was looking at quite a list of Menken quotes, and just above the black flag quote, is a beauty - maybe this has made the rounds of social media, I wouldn't know, but I'd be surprised if it has not, I could see the following endorsed by the left and the right both.  The joke is on all of them of course.  Mencken must be laughing his butt off:


“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”

― H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe 1920

July 28, 2020 05:43 AM Forum: Politics

Heard of Helmut Norpoth?

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


The 538 model was "backtested" to see what it would have predicted 100 days out, these are the results:
1968: Nixon 73% to win - He won
1972: Nixon 99% to win - He won
1976: Carter 55% to win - He won
1980: Reagan 89% to win - He won
1984: Reagan 96% to win - He won
1988: Dukakis 61% to win - He lost
1992: Clinton 69% to win - He won
1996: Clinton 93% to win - He won
2000: Bush 73% to win - He won
2004: Bush 55% to win - He won
2008: Obama 67% to win - He won
2012: Obama 68% to win - He won
2016: Clinton 58% to win - She lost
Wrong only in 1988 and 2016.
Is 538 doing a model yet?  I see the polling aggregates but not a model.  It might be too early for them.  Jim

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