Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi David:

Everyone who was in the market on March 18 (and stayed in) has experienced a comparable gain.   That graphic is accurate, but misleading, if the authors of the graphic had picked February 20 as the start date, all of those billionaires would have showed flat, or very modest gains.  

I'm pretty sure the net value of your own assets, retirement plan, or pension have increased dramatically since March 18 too!  

Jim

Except for Bezos and Musk - it is easy to tell why their jump is so dramatic.  Amazon and Tesla stocks have been weirdly strong.  More savvy investors than me might have a guess as to why.  I do not.   

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Apparently, DIY home improvement is doing quite well too. More homeowners are taking on DIY projects.

Your garden, I presume?  Looks nice!

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Amazon is a boom in the stay-at-home economy. People are not spending money traveling and eating out, and are ordering tons of stuff online. Another oddity is the pandemic has caused a real-estate bubble. At least in my area, home sales are up, especially for larger homes. People are stuck at home with their whole families, and they want more room to spread out, it seems. In general, anything that caters to a digital stay-at-home world is doing well.

This makes sense for Amazon James, but the rise in Tesla is crazy.  I think it is irrational fear of being left out of the next 'Apple.'

Jim

Consider the graphs below of the daily infections in New York, New Jersey, Florida, Georgia, Texas, and a few other Astromart politics states.  Michigan and Canada have similar graphs.  

A very similar infection rate pattern is developing in each case, but time shifted on the x axis.  I have superimposed a "ten-week box" on each infection graph.  All data is from Worldometer.

In most cases we see a ten-twelve week bell curve in the infection rate.  This is more dramatic in the states hit hardest (NY) and less dramatic in the states hit less hard (Colorado).  Is the ten-twelve week bell curve shown on each graph purely the effect of masks and social distancing?  I think that is part of it, but not the entirety.  It is not like NJ and NY are exercising a Korea/Japan level of social restraint.  I also doubt that the mask wearing situation in the bars, malls and restaurants of GA, FL and LA is the same as it is in CA and CO.  Remember when Arizona was a total sh__ show a few weeks ago?  Yet all of these states have very similar infection curve shapes, time-shifted.

Critical point: the Y axis is not correlated on these charts.  So the impact of the infection (the number of infections on the Y axis) is well demonstrated to be affected by masks, closure and social distancing.  Nonetheless, it looks like the duration of the infection might not be affected so much.  Obviously, a known cost of flattening the curve is that the curve becomes broader.  Still, I would have thought that the curve would have become a lot broader.  So please continue to wear your mask in public, wash your hands social distance and take other reasonable measures to minimize the impact of the virus in your community.

That said, why is the current infection rate so low on the East Coast where it initially hit hardest?  Why is it declining in the southern states hit hardest several weeks ago?  I remain optimistic that some sort of herd immunity is developing much sooner than anticipated.  It may be that this is a herd immunity adapted to a given social distancing environment, but still, I think reason for optimism.  We'll see whether this hypothesis holds water soon enough.  The big question is whether there will be a huge resurgence of Covid 19 on the east coast this fall.

Any other thoughts or theories are very welcome.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

According to reporting this morning on my local news station, the numbers are about to get a lot worse for Texas. It seems we have 500,000 tests that have been undercounted or counted incorrectly. For example, some 354,000 tests were being used in our positivity rate calculation, but missing all of the positive tests due to a software glitch! Our positivity rate is going to jump considerably once they get this straightened out.

 LOL! We got nothing. What does it matter how much you are testing, if results are not timely, accurate, and acted upon. We are at the mercy of this virus.

Interesting post James, but I think the virus is showing us mercy.  Please take a look at my most recent entry here: https://astromart.com/forums/commentary-careful-read-the-terms-of-service/politics/covid-19-data-and-graphs?page=58#post172633

I am extremely curious what you and others think.

Jim

Originally Posted by Jim Moscheck

More apt titles of the thread channeling Rich's vitriol:  

It is MORE DIABOLICAL than the resident Republitards could even conceive of !!!

or how about The Sleaze tactics of Steve Bannon and of all rightist Republicans

or maybe Donald Trump's America: More of what to expect.

Hi Jim:

I like the first alternative - the ALL CAPS is a nice touch.  You could make it even better by rudely calling out Rich by name in the thread title, along with an unfounded allegation:

FAUX CONSERVATIVE Rich Davis supports fraud MORE DIABOLICAL than the resident Republitards could even conceive of !!!

Originally Posted by James Brown

Hi Jim:

I like the first alternative - the ALL CAPS is a nice touch.  You could make it even better by rudely calling out Rich by name in the thread title, along with an unfounded allegation:

FAUX CONSERVATIVE Rich Davis supports fraud MORE DIABOLICAL than the resident Republitards could even conceive of !!!

On second thought, I like the original title.  A very clever throw-back to the 2016 campaign.  J

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Exactly.

Here are the facts.  You might be interested.  We know BB and his leftist friends aren't. They are interested in politicizing it from Day 1.

Hogwash Rich, even for you.  We have a nearly 600 post thread dedicated to exploring the facts and the analysis in that thread is remarkably free of politics.   Personally, I remain optimistic that the worst will soon be behind us based upon the data.  See my post today in the graphs thread.  Of course this does not fit your alternative reality.  Nothing I can do about that.

Jim

Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Exactly.

Here are the facts.  You might be interested.  We know BB and his leftist friends aren't. They are interested in politicizing it from Day 1.

Deaths in states that didn't lock down tight, and let people earn a living without the threat of the Heavy hand of Gov't tyrants throwing you in jail or destroying your business.

S. Dak -  Number of Deaths per 1 Million population   177/ 1 Million
Texas  - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population   363/ 1 Million
Georgia - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population  457/ 1 Million
Florida - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population   468/ 1 Milliion
Arizona - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population  644/ 1 Million

Deaths in States that locked down tight, and took away many of your liberties,  the biggest one being the liberty and freedom to make a living and feed your family.

Connecticut - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population   1250/ 1 Million
New York  - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population    1693/ 1 Million
New Jersey - Number of Deaths per 1 Million population   1805/ 1 Million

What are the commonalities between the states above?

Simple, the ones in the first 5 rows, that have vastly fewer deaths per Million population are all states with much greater freedom and liberty, AND they are all run by Republican Governors.  

The other 3 Rows which had vastly greater numbers of Dead per capita are all run by Demorrhoid Governors.  

Not surprisingly, you are missing the key point in this disparity.  The NE states were hit early, before steps were taken to protect the elderly.  If you want to criticize Cuomo, and I think he is ripe for criticism, it is because he failed to protect the elderly.

The Southern states learned from Cuomo's deadly mistake, and protected the elderly.  That alone accounts for the differing deaths/M.  Having an R or D after your name has nothing to do with it.

Jim

 

Originally Posted by James Lacey

TL;DR: Exposure to common colds might give some people a head-start on immunity to COVID-19

Paper published August 4th; widespread reporting just showing up now.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/04/science.abd3871

Abstract

Many unknowns exist about human immune responses to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. SARS-CoV-2 reactive CD4+ T cells have been reported in unexposed individuals, suggesting pre-existing cross-reactive T cell memory in 20-50% of people. However, the source of those T cells has been speculative. Using human blood samples derived before the SARS-CoV-2 virus was discovered in 2019, we mapped 142 T cell epitopes across the SARS-CoV-2 genome to facilitate precise interrogation of the SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cell repertoire. We demonstrate a range of pre-existing memory CD4+ T cells that are cross-reactive with comparable affinity to SARS-CoV-2 and the common cold coronaviruses HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, HCoV-NL63, or HCoV-HKU1. Thus, variegated T cell memory to coronaviruses that cause the common cold may underlie at least some of the extensive heterogeneity observed in COVID-19 disease.

"Exposure to common colds might give some people a head-start on immunity to COVID-19"   I sure hope this is the case.  I have heard this suggested in a couple of places recently, and it might go a ways toward supporting early herd-ish immunity as an explanation for the infection graphs that seem to be repeating in each state.  As I mentioned to old Dodgeball in the other thread, I remain optimistic for the fall.

I am reasonably confident based upon plenty of reading that the level of early herd-ish immunity correlates with the social mitigation level.  So, to the extent folks give up on SD, masks and the like, I expect larger second waves even though some portion of the population might have some resistance to the disease imparted by common cold T-cells.  Colorado has experienced this in a fairly manageable setting.  Some of this is a necessary evil, since I do not support wholesale economic shut down, even though I think it is stupid not to do the easy SD/masks/work from home stuff. 

Jim