Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I thought he had AZ, FL, and NC more "lean Biden," not sure Biden. 

He does.  It is almost 50/50 for these three states in his analysis.   We agree on the "too early to tell part."  

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

So you're the one who's responsible for all the full-spectrum LED lighting us visual guys can't filter out. Gee, thanks, Jim...

No some very very very rich guys working out of MIT are responsible for that!    

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

So Jim, what do you think of Trump's premature announcement of the candidacy of Senator Ted Cruz for the supreme court. What about Tom Cotton? Which one do you prefer?

I'd bet big money that Amy Coney Barrett is the nominee if Trump wins and RBG dies or resigns.  

I think Trump's unconventional approach to releasing a list of SC candidates "in advance" helped him beat Clinton.  This was arguably a very savvy political move.  Worked last time anyway.

Do you think Joe Biden will release a list too?  I feel like I'm channeling Rich here, but if Joe does not, why not?  Unlike Rich, I'm not playing gotcha -  I'll go first.  Personally I think that Joe will not release a list because if the SC candidates are too far left the R's will attack and if the candidates are Merrick Garland types, the lefties will revolt.  It's a lose - lose for Biden.

Trump on the other hand seems to have a better time rallying the base with his list of origialists.  Gives him some credibility with conservatives he might not otherwise have.

Jim

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

You seem to be in a rut Darian. 

This is probably offensive, and I'm sorry about that in advance, but the idea of anything negative about Trump being a "snooze" seems to me to be a lot like sticking your head in the sand.

I think Trump is very vulnerable, in large part because of his own tweets and words.   I get it that you are going to vote for him and LA is in the bag for him.  What makes politics interesting though, is considering how Trump's actions and Biden's actions will play in the actual swing states.  I think it is fascinating that a few persuadable voters in a few states are going to make the difference in this election.  Hardly a snooze at all!

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

The POTUS, who has told over 20,000 documented lies and falsehoods while in office, is accusing everyone else of lying. You can't make this stuff up.

Hi James:

Actually, the WaPo can make this stuff up.  I found this article linked on Real Clear to be pretty compelling.  Your take might vary!  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/09/10/no_trump_hasnt_made_20000_false_or_misleading_claims.html

Of course Trump has lied plenty, and some have been whoppers.  Most of those 20,000 falsehoods are simply exaggerations, duplicates, and value statements the Washington Post does not agree with. 

For example, 

"Just to start, here’s one of Trump’s most oft-repeated “lies,” according to Washington Post fact checkers: “My job was made harder by phony witch hunts, by ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ nonsense.” The Post dings Trump for some variation of this claim 227 times – more than 1% of Trump’s alleged untruths..." 

It takes a fairly partisan slant, in my opinion, to call those 227 statements lies.

or:

"Other allegedly misleading claims are simply insulting to readers, such as this one Trump’s been rung up for eight times: “We have tremendous African American support.”" 

The Post is engaging in a level of nit-picking there that is matched only by our dear friend Rich.

I have not perused the list myself, and maybe RCP is cherry picking to make a point, I am sure they are.  But I think the underlying message is valid.  The "fact checking" aspect of the press has so overplayed their hands by calling policy statements they disagree with and political exaggerations "lies" that they have ruined their own credibility.  The bias displayed by the major fact checkers is outrageous.  

Jim 

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

I realize that "voter suppression" is a talking point.....and one used by both sides in all major elections....but I dont buy into it.

Hi Greg:

Neither do I.  But, I don't buy into mail-in balloting being the Devil's playground, so what do I know!

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

The top three tipping point states, according to most forecasts, are PA, FL, and WI; in that order. Right now, PA and FL are a toss-up. Also, right now, WI is leaning Biden. Assuming there are no surprises, it looks like it boils down to what happens in PA and FL. Anyone who is counting Trump out at this point is way too optimistic. It does boil down to turnout and how independents and undecideds vote. The base support is immovable.

I agree 100% with each line of this post.  Jim

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

If we can vote by mail then we can sell guns by mail. You Democrats would of course lose your freaking minds over this, right? Stating that gun purchases need to be made in person and with ID, you know, to prevent fraud & all, right?

Hi Greg:

I'm not a Democrat of course, but I'm not a gun owner either.  I think that guns could safely be sold over the mail - but there would be a lot of hoops to jump through.  The buyer would have to prove his/her identity and qualifications prior to purchase over the mail and probably have to take delivery at a gun shop or from a gun-shop sponsored deliver service, where someone trained and qualified checks the recipient out.  This is more or less what happens now right?  Adding mail-in would not make the system less safe, if reasonable precautions were taken.

Another example:  I buy wine on line through a nifty wine club.  Someone over 21 has to sign for the delivery.  Reasonable precautions.

Another example:  Mail-in or drop-off voting works well with no more than typical fraud because the state can/does take reasonable precautions.  So, here are my points:

1.  Everyone knows that some number of kids buy booze illegally, criminals buy guns illegally and political crooks vote fraudulently, in person.

2.  A system that has reasonable precautions in place can rely on "mail-in" for the same transactions and be just as safe as the baseline safety of in-person transactions.   

3.  The definition society settles upon for what is a "reasonable precaution" for voting, buying booze, or buying a gun will vary in each case depending on a lot of risk and consequence factors.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I'm sorry, Jim, Trump deserves all the criticism he gets for being an inexhaustible liar and selfish, incompetent charlatan. I apologize that this response is out of proportion with what you wrote, but this pandemic has affected me and my family's livelihood directly, and I blame Trump for a lot of it. 

Hi James:

Your response is fine.  I agree with what I quoted above - Trump does lie and I think it is likely to lead to his electoral demise.  If his lies bring him down, I approve of that.  Even so, I think outlets like the Washington Post overplay their hands dramatically.  It is not necessary to go with "20,000" lies when that is demonstrably not objective.  They hurt themselves in my opinion.

Also, the "fact-checking" bias against Rs or conservatives predates Trump by a lot.   So much of fact-checking journalism is opinion work cloaked in unearned objectivity.

I am saying this, also knowing that Trump is a liar and might get what he deserves come November.   I don't think it is inconsistent to acknowledge that Trump is a liar and also to hold a low opinion of the primary fact-checking organizations.

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

"Of course Trump has lied plenty, and some have been whoppers.  Most of those 20,000 falsehoods are simply exaggerations, duplicates, and value statements the Washington Post does not agree with."
Jim, the biased opinion piece from real clear politics is a whopper in itself. It's bogus claim that Trump hasn't said Biden means to defund the police in absolutely false. To wit:
“Biden has vowed to defund the police, do all sorts of things to law enforcement that are bad,” Trump said in an August “tele-rally” with supporters on Facebook.
That said, let's assume for a minute that 1000 reported lies in the Washington post are either mistakes, duplicates or are otherwise incorrect. That leaves 19,000 others that are not. No president lies as much as Trump and the damage his lies do are proportionate with the frequency and severity of their consequences. 

Hi Rod:

I should have said "many" not "most" in my post.  That was careless, since I have not gone through the WaPo list line by line.  Jim