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Posts Made By: James Brown

September 17, 2020 02:50 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown
Hi all:

I think it is puzzling that several EU countries are seeing a resurgence of Covid 19 infections, while the East Coast states that had very bad infection rates this spring have not seen a large resurgence.  See columns 1 and 2 below.  I have read that Spain opened the bars aggressively, and that is apparently not the case in NY and MA.  I'm not so sure about NJ.  Also, the EU countries were infected a few weeks before NY and the US East Coast.  

Still, the resurgence in Spain, France, and elsewhere in the EU calls into question my earlier optimism about early herd immunity plus residual immunity from other corona viruses (common cold) being in play.  It will be interesting to see how this works out as we head into the autumn with schools reopening in certain locales.  

The good news is that deaths in the EU and East Coast are coming in at low, and if I may be cold-hearted, "tolerable" rates.  See column 3.  Here in Colorado the Covid 19 death rate is down to about 2 per day.

Jim

September 17, 2020 03:00 AM Forum: Politics

"Herd Mentality"

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Florida, of all places. And one in which DeSantis ordered Covid data of certain school districts withheld. I live in a community similar to a cross section of older Trumptoids and younger ones seen in that Target store. We've got the third highest outbreak of covid cases of the cities within LA county and I was at UCLA medical today in Santa CLarita where they've got a Covid testing site in the parking lot. The testees look a lot like those in that Target store...
Hi Rod:

I don't doubt that Florida, Texas  and California could possibly do better - but the trend lines are looking good in these largest Southern and Western states.  Deaths are down too.

Jim

September 17, 2020 03:12 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

I liked the way Cuomo framed it last night on CNN. He likened the situation to that of a sinking boat. All though some of the flooding has slowed, the water is still coming in and the boat is still sinking. Instead of having 40,000 cases per day in the USA, we have 30,000 or so new cases per day. 
 A lot of people won't use masks and when we eventually get a vaccine, they won't get it...
The sinking boat is an extremely negative metaphor, from what I am seeing.  I would put it this way: 

We are all in a boat out to sea.  A huge hurricane was spotted coming our way.  Loss of life was inevitable.  We pulled together and saved a lot of lives.  The boat did not sink.  Mistakes were made of course, and maybe some people died unnecessarily.  But overall we did a good job and the boat survived nicely.

Jim

September 17, 2020 03:27 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

 I think it's more like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic...
Seriously?  Do you think the death tolls or serious hospitalization rates are going to go way up this fall?  If you do, you could be right, but I sure don't see it.  Even in Spain, which is the poster child for a resurgence, the death and serious hospitalization rates are way down.

Jim 

September 17, 2020 03:29 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


The Texas mask order went into effect on July 2nd. On that day, we had 122 COVID fatalities. We peaked at 269 deaths on July 23rd, exactly three weeks later. Since then, our fatalities have steadily declined, and on September 9th, we dropped to single-digit fatalities per day. Currently, we might see 1 or 2 deaths per day. Public health data also shows that other infectious disease like gastrointestinal bugs are also being crushed. For me anyway, it's obvious the mask mandate worked.
I agree, and wearing a mask in public places is so extremely easy.  My optimism is not giving Trump and the mask naysayers a pass.  It is more of an observation that the majority is doing what is good for them.  Kudos to Texas by the way for dropping to single digit fatalities.

Jim

September 17, 2020 04:59 AM Forum: Politics

Covid-19 data and graphs

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Well, if this is any indicator...

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=73042312
Hi Rod:

You know better than to think a one day bump means anything.  Also, the article does not even support the headline, unless I missed something.  Also, this alleged three-fold bump is just a repeating statistical pattern where all of the deaths over the weekend are reported on the first business day or two after the weekend.  See the snippet from the US death graph below.  they pretty much could recycle this alarmist headline each and every week on Monday or Tuesday!  Sorry, but the quoted headline is pretty much fake news.  Shame on ABC.

Jim

September 21, 2020 10:00 PM Forum: Politics

Ginsberg: Loss Of A legend

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


This take is the correct viewpoint. If Richard were here, and I'm glad he's not, he would be gaslighting all of us and trying to concoct an alternate reality where Democrats are eternal hypocrites, and Republicans always act consistently virtuous. The winning side will use power to get their way when they can, despite any political hypocrisy. The losing side will say that it's unfair despite their actions in the past. It is the way politics works. On the other hand, karma and pay-back is a bitch. Sooner or later, the Democrats will be in power, and right now, it's looking like ramming a replacement for RBG through will bring about that certainty sooner rather than later.
So far, nothing too inflammatory in this thread.  I'm kind of surprised.  RBG was an admirable woman and a powerful justice.  Her finest legacy might be in all of the girls she inspired to achieve at their own highest levels.

I agree that hypocrisy is synonymous with Washington DC.  

If I were on the Trump reelection strategy team (and of course I'm not) I would counsel Trump to make the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, but counsel McConnel to hold off on hearings and a vote until after the election.  That way, the worst of the Garland hypocrisy can be defused, and the R base will be even more motivated.  Rs have always seemed to care about the Supreme Court more than Ds.  If Trump wins, the hearings and vote can proceed without any extra controversy.  If Trump loses, there would still be time to have hearings and hold a vote after the election.

Jim

September 21, 2020 10:02 PM Forum: Politics

Ginsberg: Loss Of A legend

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey



For example, so far, Gorsuch has been moving to the center. There are exceptions and extremes, such as Douglas or Thomas. But overall, the court stays remarkably center regardless of who is appointed.

This is true, and works both ways.  Roberts is pretty much a centrist now.

September 21, 2020 10:06 PM Forum: Politics

Mitch McConnell

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by David Cotterell
" "The American people should have a voice in the selection of the next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this seat should not be filled until we have a new president." -Mitch McConnell, 2016


Aaaaaaaannnnnnd the fucking guy waits an entire 90 minutes after RBG's death to contradict himself....


Dave
Hi Dave:

Hypocrisy, yes.  But as someone famous once said, "elections have consequences."   As James Lacey once said, "what goes around comes around."  It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Jim

September 21, 2020 10:33 PM Forum: Politics

Ginsberg: Loss Of A legend

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


This strategy is * precisely* what I expect them to do. This way, they retain the leverage to motivate their voters until after the election, and then, either way, they still get their appointment.
But...  I would not have December hearings if I were McConnel, if the D's win the Presidency and Senate too, because I really do not want to see the court packed, which the incoming D majority would surely do.  In a few generations we would have 100s of Supreme Court Justices, thus destroying the most highly functional branch of the federal government.  If the Rs lose the presidency but retain the Senate, then if I were McConell, I would go for it as a matter of bare-knuckle politics.

Jim 

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