Originally Posted by Darian Rachal
Jim, I suspect you are going to be as disappointed on election night in November this year, as you were in 2016. I don't think you have any conception of the contempt that Trump supporters have for the Democrat Party.
Hi Darian:
I'm guessing that Jim M., James and the rest have a pretty good idea of the contempt that Trump supporters have for the Democrat Party. They've been reading you and Richard, Steve and Greg here for the last few years. Gotta admit, your messaging has not been subtle! Even though Trump supporters might hold the Ds in contempt, each Trump supporter still only gets one vote.
So the vehemence of your contempt is not the point! We can all agree that Trump supporters loath Democrats and Democrats loath Trump and his supporters. At least we ought to agree on that, although Rich won't agree with me even when we agree! Like I said, this is not the point. (Well, I have to admit that a fired-up base is important, but still...)
The real question is whether the voters in the key swing states (FL, PA, MI, WI, OH) have moved a little toward Trump or a little toward Biden. If they have moved a little toward Biden, Trump loses. It is that simple. The RCP swing state poll averages suggest that Biden has the lead, but they were wrong in 2016 by just a little bit, and that made all the difference in the world. Unlike James, I think the debate tomorrow is going to be important in the swing states.
We'll see of course.
Jim