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RICHARD COFER

Lunar Occultation of Jupiter (Egress)

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Posts Made By: James Brown

September 29, 2020 11:58 PM Forum: Politics

Trump's Taxes: Revealed

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


There's no doubt Trump is way down nationally. In 2016 he won Alaska by 15%; he's currently +1% there. Iowa is a toss-up and he won there by 9 points in 2016. Ohio is a toss-up and he won there by 8 points. He won Texas in 2016 by 9%; he's currently +2%. He won Georgia by 5%; he's currently +1%.

Trump supporters are not the majority.
Hi James and Russ:

I'm replying scattershot to a lot of posts with this one.  You guys are right, the swing states' polls have moved toward Biden quite a bit since I last looked.  538 now has Biden at about 80% to win the EC; same as they have him to win PA.  I trust 538, especially since they took so much heat from the left last time for only predicting Clinton by a 60/40-ish margin, when certain peers (NYT) were predicting a 99% chance of a Clinton victory.  

I do think the polls will tighten again at some point, but maybe not.  Trump needs tonight to change the momentum. 

I sometimes wonder if the systemic turnout estimation errors underlying the 2016 polling fail are in play again?  I doubt it.  I doubt it because I think Biden will turn out various demographics at about the same level as Clinton did, and I assume that the pollsters have adjusted their models.  So, assuming that the models have been adjusted appropriately, Biden probably has a much bigger lead in the key swing states than I previously gave him credit for.

I do think tonight matters.  FWIW, the incumbents have face-planted in the first presidential debate the last few cycles. 

Trump supporters, or Trump, are insane if they claim a greater than 50% majority.  The polls are nowhere near that wrong.  

Jim

September 30, 2020 12:17 AM Forum: Politics

It's AMY!

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Russ Carroll



I seriously doubt they will. The party line seems to be the process is F'ed, not the candidate. I've seen very little condemning her spiritual beliefs and practices, and virtually none by Dem Senators.
Hi Russ:

You have more confidence in the D Senators than I do.  I could easily see them stepping in it big time.  Sexist treatment of Judge Barrett would be perhaps the only thing that could rile my wife up big-time this election cycle.  Nothing will change her vote in the presidential election, she is done with Trump.  But sexist treatment of Barrett would sure solidify her vote for Gardner over Hickenlooper.   Even though Hick obviously won't be the one making sexist "Dave-like" suggestions because of Judge Barrett's gender and faith.  If the D's go after Barrett on anything other than her judicial credentials, I would expect the huge demographic of women who balance career and children to make them pay.

Jim

September 30, 2020 12:27 AM Forum: Politics

Trump's Taxes: Revealed

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Russ Carroll



Look, all Trump has to do tonight is be prepared, show some restraint, accept responsibility, tell the truth, and try and stay positive....I think we'd better put old 1-finger on suicide-watch. Probably goes for Rich, too.
The only thing I'm certain of is that Rich will spin tonight into a Trump win.  No matter how bad it goes tonight, and it could be pretty bad, Trump can count on Rich. 

Your sarcasm is apt, if Trump were to "be prepared, show some restraint, accept responsibility, tell the truth, and stay positive" he would attract so many moderates back that he might win.  People like me.  Americans are a very forgiving bunch with short memories.  Of course, I'm not holding my breath.  Attracting moderate Rs back into the fold seems to be way down toward the bottom of Trump's to-do list.

Jim

September 30, 2020 12:32 AM Forum: Politics

It's AMY!

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Russ Carroll


The slighted party usually puts up a better fight, which is one reason we routinely have shifts in power.
Great point. 

September 30, 2020 10:39 AM Forum: Politics

Debate

Posted By James Brown
I thought Biden easily cleared the low bar set for him.   I thought Trump embarrassed himself with the constant interruptions and what seemed to me to be childish petulance.  Not much of substance, sad but not surprising.  Significant Biden win, in my opinion.

Jim

September 30, 2020 10:10 PM Forum: Politics

Debate

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer


Since yall seem to think I am part of his base let me say this. The "debate" was as I said above a train wreck for both sides.

About the only thing I have good to say was it tickled me a bit that Trump got Biden to break every promise he made to Bernie Sanders.
Hi Greg:  I'm not saying Biden was great or anything, far from it.  I do think however, that Trump embarrassed himself entirely, and I think it matters to the rare persuadable voter.  I am one.  I voted for Trump in 2016.  The debate did not have to be this way.  It was a strategy call by Trump (I suppose) and he blew it.  When asked about Covid, Trump could have answered something firm, but reasonable and persuasive, like this:  (This should sound familiar, I cribbed it from your recent post)

"[I'm] tired of hearing how “I killed thousands” because of covid...perhaps y’all conveniently forget that I came out and said (after I closed the borders and banned travel from China early on and was chastised by the left as xenophobic) [that I] was going to allow the Governors to handle each state's own response to covid and put the Federal govt resources at their disposal. I sent the Mercy and Comfort to NY and Cali and they weren’t used, I set up huge field hospitals and they weren’t used. I provided respirators and they weren’t used. Instead 5 dem governors put infected people in with uninfected elderly patients of nursing homes purposely!!! Nursing home deaths were the majority of the covid deaths...this wasn’t an accident it was culling out the old and infirm. Premeditated murder and these 5 governors need to be held accountable for these unnecessary deaths!"

The last line might be a bit much, but Trump could have done so much better in response to these questions than he did.  He really failed to play up his strengths on the economy.  He choose instead to interrupt, eye roll, argue with the moderator, talk over Biden and so on.  I suppose this does play well with Trump's base, but the base alone is probably not going to win the election for him.  

Jim

September 30, 2020 10:13 PM Forum: Politics

Debate

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


It was a train wreck for all three sides; even the moderator lost.
Sure, it was a train wreck, but Trump was driving the train.  Biden on the other hand appeared cognitively able to stand there and roll with the punches for 90 minutes.  That had to take incredible stamina.  That is why I think Biden won.  He exceeded expectations by a lot.

Jim   

September 30, 2020 10:23 PM Forum: Politics

Debate

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Brown

Sure, it was a train wreck, but Trump was driving the train.  Biden on the other hand appeared cognitively able to stand there and roll with the punches for 90 minutes.  That had to take incredible stamina.  That is why I think Biden won.  He exceeded expectations by a lot.

Jim   
My previous comments were made purely from my perspective as a viewer.  I had not yet read any analysis.  I've started into the analysis, and I have to say that when Conrad Black, writing for American Greatness starts out his post debate column as follows, you know Trump really blew it.  Conrad Black is one of Trump's most steadfast supporters:

"There was no clear winner in Tuesday’s presidential debate and the country was the loser.

President Trump could have won decisively if he had just followed Napoleon’s famous advice not to “interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” The moderator, Fox News Channel’s Chris Wallace, did an excellent professional job largely without bias, and undoubtedly more fairly than those who will conduct the next two debates, but he didn’t come down hard enough on the interruptions. If Trump had just allowed Wallace to follow up on his questions of Biden, the former vice president would have stumbled badly. Trump’s irritating interruptions created an incoherent cacophony that enabled Biden to escape severe embarrassment."


https://amgreatness.com/2020/09/30/trump-wins-round-one-barely/

October 1, 2020 03:18 AM Forum: Politics

Debate

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Paul Leuba

It did not change a single vote.  
Hi Paul:

I disagree.  I voted for Trump in 2016.  No matter what Rich Davis might say, I am a Republican who has voted Republican for the last couple of decades.  I voted against Obama twice.  Please recognize that I am, in my own view, a moderate.  I am a social libertarian.  Still, I much prefer the jurisprudence of Scalia, Thomas and Alito to Kagan, Sotomayor and Ginsberg.  I have donated to Cory Booker here in CO and I have been an R delegate to our state convention.  I support  a lot of what Trump has done in office. 

I am seriously considering voting for Biden this time.  I understand that this is perhaps voting against my own financial interest, although, as I've posted over the years, I strongly believe that the robustness of the US system transcends the man (or hopefully in 2024 Nikki Haley) in the White House.

I watched last night with a part of me hoping that Biden would present an epic fail, giving me cover to hold my nose and vote for Trump again.  Didn't happen.  Instead I was treated to Trump acting like an ass, at least in part confirming partisan caricatures that I've preferred to ignore or minimize.

My vote is not cast, but Trump's performance pushed me firmly toward Biden.  I'll admit I was trending that way, but I'm almost all the way there now.

Jim

October 1, 2020 03:29 AM Forum: Politics

Debate

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Richard Davis

Had coffee today with my older Friend Len.  He and I agree with you.  The whole thing was out of control and a train wreck for both sides.

The fact that the left here only recognizes the "childish petulance" as well as the so-called "constant interruptions" on the part of Trump, while completely ignoring the names that Biden called Trump as well as Biden's constant interruptions, isn't shocking in the least.  

The left never sees Biden in the light that he exists and the light that he existed in last night, showing utter contempt for the President, calling him a clown 2X, calling him a fool more than once, saying directly to the President with complete anger "why don't you shut up man".

Also, it was stated here that "Trump embarrassed himself completely", and the same person described Biden as appearing "cognitively able to stand there and roll with the punches for 90 minutes.  That had to take incredible stamina".

Now, that is funny considering at one point Biden said that Trump was "the worst President in the history of the United States", Biden called him a racist, implied he was stupid, called him a "clown" twice, and said that Under Trump's watch 200,000 people died of Covid.

I guess those aren't punches in this TDS sufferers mind?  

Not only that, Biden once again brought up the lie that Trump said that Nazis were good people.  That canard was put to bed by CNN's own Steve Cortes.  

I guess in this person's TDS laden mind, those are appropriate comments and not mudslinging eh?  

I find it pretty hilarious, how Biden's performance was characterized immediately as a "significant win".

I'll say this, the whole thing was painful to watch, especially viewing Chris Wallace as some sort of "objective" moderator.  

He was nothing of the sort.  

Hopefully, the next outing will be a little better with the C-SPAN moderator running things.  
Hi Rich:

Interesting that you would credit all of my quotes (in green above) to "the left".  My quotes are mine, and I'm no lefty.  Perhaps you are willfully ignoring the consequences of Trump distancing himself from the center right to appease his ego and satisfy his base?   We'll see if it matters.  My instinct is that Trump can ill afford to alienate those who voted for him in 2016 - although in my case it doesn't matter since you and I don't live in a swing state anymore.

I am tickled that you combed through the whole thread to quote several of my statements.  This give humorous context to your jibe about living in James Lacey's head.

Jim

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