Posts Made By: James Brown

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

The process is clearly lined out in the Constitution.....seems to me if you are going to participate in discussions of US politics now would be a good time to give it at least cursory glance

That's kind of harsh...

Article 2 definitely lays out the EC and plan of succession if the Pres. dies or is removed from office, but I don't recall Article 2 saying anything about a candidate dying, or becoming incapacitated between the nominating convention and the election, or between the election and the EC vote, or after the EC vote and inauguration.  These all might be different things.  I'll google it, but this is probably murky.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Brown

That's kind of harsh...

Article 2 definitely lays out the EC and plan of succession if the Pres. dies or is removed from office, but I don't recall Article 2 saying anything about a candidate dying, or becoming incapacitated between the nominating convention and the election, or between the election and the EC vote, or after the EC vote and inauguration.  These all might be different things.  I'll google it, but this is probably murky.

Jim

First hit seems pretty informative, obviously a lot of people are asking Dave's question this morning:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/02/were-final-stages-presidential-election-what-happens-if-candidate-withdraws-or-dies/

Originally Posted by David Cotterell

Trump tweeted that he and Melania have tested positive for Covid..

I have been unable to find independent corroboration of this up to now (10am EDT).  So only his tweet saying so exists.

Nevertheless....

How will the election be affected if  he gets extremely ill?  No change if he is alive.  If he dies?  Republican National Committee (RNC) appoints a new candidate in a hastily called convention.  Are there constitutional rules that would kick in?  I don't think so, before the EC vote.  DJT has co-morbidities of age and obesity which could come into play so this is not at all a far-fetched scenario...

If he dies or is incapacitated does Pence become the presidential candidate Not automatically, although he would be a likely replacement candidate chosen by the RNC.  - (then who for VP?)?   Or does the entire P-VP ticket become invalid?  No.  Who then would run for the R's?  RNC's choice.

Could he have passed it on  to Biden during the debate?  A remote chance that both Trump and Biden fall ill....one or both dies.....  then what?  Same as above, but with the DNC scrambling.

Could the election be postponed?  I don't think so, this is set in the Constitution.

Dave

    

Hi Dave:

You should research and verify this if it really interests you, but based upon one article, I interlaced some replies above.  Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Plot twist: Trump and Biden both survive through the election. Biden wins. Trump and Biden both expire. Kamala becomes the first female POTUS.

Did you watch House of Cards?  I loved it.  Too bad Kevin Spacey disgraced himself and more or less killed the show.

Originally Posted by Greg Shaffer

I didnt claim it was my words.....if it were, it wouldnt be full of quotation marks. What a maroon lol

I knew it wasn't your words because it went on and on for so long.  I assumed that Rich had hacked your account.  

It would have been good form to cut-paste the source link, but lots of us have made that mistake.  I also know that I gave Rich a raft of "grief" the other day when he posted a picture that had "copyright" watermarks all over it.  Rich was gracious and took it down immediately.  That one worried me because I have had a client get threatened with a copyright infringement suit for using images taken from the internet on his web page.  There is a cottage industry of copyright trolls out there who host picture farms and then sue people who use the pictures without paying a fee.  The settlement is usually pretty small, but the troll would be coming after Herb, not us.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

Hi Maurice,

As you know, I'm a Texan, and I'm no fan of Abbot, but let me explain a little bit about what is going on here.

Thanks for the context, James, it's always good to have some local intelligence.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

What are you even talking about? I said COVID is a hoax? Dude, you really need to go for a hike in that fresh mountain air and clear your head.

Here's something that might cheer you up in the meantime:

Hi James:

"Biden Lead Over Trump Cut To 3 Points After Presidential Debate: IBD/TIPP Poll"  https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-lead-over-donald-trump-narrows-after-presidential-debate-ibd-tipp-poll/

Weird.  I think both these polls are probably partisan outliers.  Biden's lead remains "pretty good" but consider this.  Trump needs to win OH, NC, AZ, FL, and PA to win the EC according to the current 538 model, and he is "behind" in all of these states.   Biden can take back MI and WI and Trump still wins with a sweep of OH, NC, AZ, FL, and PA.  

BUT... OH, NC, AZ, and FL are all either literal ties (OH) or within 2 points (FL) or somewhere in between.  According to 538 BIden is up 5+ in PA.  If there is a polling bias, bashful Torrie syndrome or something like that at play, Trump could easily be leading in all 4 of the effectively tied states.  At best the race is too close to call.  

So, the jump to 14% is either BS, and it all comes down to a few voters in PA - Or the 14% lead is legit and Biden wins in an EC landslide, maybe taking TX to rub salt into the wound.  I think the former scenario is more likely based upon 2016.

Jim

Originally Posted by James Lacey

I agree, for the most part, of course. I was merely tweaking Richard a little.

Suppose Biden wins all of the states that Lean Biden, then he easily wins. Trump, on the other hand, not only has to win all the toss-up states, but he also has to win some of the lean Biden states. The odds are in Biden's favor. Too close to call is too strong, in my humble opinion. If you had to bet a $1,000 on who would win, who would you bet on right now? Clearly, the only choice is Biden. The usual caveats apply, i.e., even an underdog can still win, but no one would seriously bet on Trump winning right now if the betting odds are even.

Agreed.  538 has had the odds at 80/20-ish for some time and the trend is in Biden's favor.

Jim

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Latest betting odds average on real clear politics, Biden 61.0, Trump 37.5.

Those odds were close to 50/50 before the debate.  Interesting, given that some have convinced themselves that Trump won.

Jim 

Originally Posted by Darian Rachal

Rod, let's say in spite of all this "information", Trump ends up winning. What conclusion will you reach?

Hi Darian:

I won't think it's rigged, like Rod's probably tongue in cheek answer.   

If Trump wins, I will think that the polling industry is broken because of some combination of (a) social media replacing telephone as most folk's communications means.  (b) Some Trump voters refusing to admit they are Trump voters.  (c)  Biased polling models because of growing disconnect between the media, media pollsters, and voters in places like OH, FL, PA and so on.

Jim


p.s.  I don't think a Trump win is likely, but if it does occur, the above is what I'll be thinking the day after the election, or maybe I should say the day after the results are known... 2016 was a polling miss that had a major effect on predicting the outcome.  Two elections in a row would indicate that the pollsters are unable to make the necessary corrections to their methods or models in this era.  Alternatively, it could be that the pollsters simply can't poll Trump properly, and everything returns to normal more or less in 2024.

Jim