Whoa!Posted By James Brown |
James,Originally Posted by James Lacey
It's not over till it's over. Trump still has about a 1 in 5 chance of winning, maybe a little less. If he does win, I'm sure some people will point out how wrong everyone was, but the truth is we will not be wrong if Trump wins. It will just be that he will have managed to pull off a stunning upset, even more so than in 2016.
I agree with you, but I don't think the upset would be all that stunning. As you point out, the best models show Trump with about a 20% chance of winning. To put that in context, the odds of flipping a coin three times and getting heads each time are 12.5%. I seriously doubt anyone would be shocked to flip a coin three times and get heads each time! Hopefully I didn't just ruin Russ' day
Jim