Posts Made By: Russ Carroll

House goes Dem for sure. I didn't think the Senate was possible, but I now think it will fall to the Dems as well.

However, nothing surprises me anymore, so who knows.

Abdul El-Sayed is going down in Michigan. Not because the Democrat he ran against endorsed Mike Rodgers. It is because he could not answer a very simple question: Who is a greater danger to the US, Israel or Iran?

Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Maybe---how do you see the Haley Stevens defection--helping or hurting the Democrats in Michigan?

Honestly, she seems like little more than a freak show. I doubt it will have much impact on the election.

Originally Posted by James Brown

I agree with you and Rod that this dirty trick was small potatoes compared to what’s been done in the past. Patola has positioned herself as an honest politician who would not play these sort of games. If I were an Alaska voter it would matter to me.   probably not enough to vote for a Republican if I was a registered/lifelong Democrat.

My understanding is that there is a top-2 runoff if no candidate gets more 50% of the vote, so it seems immaterial to me.

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

Hi Russ,

I don't think this is the case since Alaska uses ranked choice voting. If no candidate has over 50% in the first count, the votes for the lowest candidate are distributed to the other candidates according to their second preference. 

This continues until only 2 candidates remain, at which point one of them must have over 50%. 

Cheers 

Maurice

I think that would still work out about the same.

One final prediction:

I think we may be watching history repeat itself in today's election, and Republicans should be very concerned about the long-term consequences.

Remember California's Proposition 187?

In 1994, Republican Governor Pete Wilson embraced an initiative to deny public education and other government services to illegal immigrants. The proposition passed overwhelmingly, and Wilson won reelection.

But Republicans paid a terrible long-term political price. Hispanic voters increasingly abandoned the party, helping transform California from a competitive state into one dominated by Democrats. More than 30 years later, Republicans still haven't recovered.

Fast forward to 2024. Trump made remarkable gains among Hispanic voters, receiving 48% of their vote, nearly matching Harris. It was an enormous opportunity for Republicans to build a lasting political coalition.

Instead, Trump has pursued an immigration crackdown that has gone well beyond what many of those voters thought they were supporting.

There is a huge difference between securing the border and making millions of American citizens feel that their families and communities are under attack.

And the polling shows it. A recent Pew survey found that Trump's approval among Hispanic voters has fallen to just 24%.

Today's election may be remembered as the beginning of another Proposition 187 moment, this time on a national scale.

Pete Wilson won his election in 1994, but his party lost a generation of voters.

Trump is about to accomplish the same thing.

.

Originally Posted by Maurice Clark

I see on various blogs that people are speculating on Alito retiring so that Republicans can ram through a replacement before they lose control of the senate.  

Personally I cannot see them making such a move. It would completely destroy any support for the supreme court.

If they did that, Dems would be emboldened to pack the court.

Originally Posted by James Brown

They will have to override a veto to expand the court, I think.

Yes, I meant in '28.

Originally Posted by Brian McFarland

A lot of that is directly related to the military's opinion of Hegseth's leadership. If you can call it that.

If Hegseth isn't walking the plank in January, I want my vote back.  Republicans in Congress could get a shred of their dignity back by 86'ing him now.