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Posts Made By: James Brown

November 3, 2020 01:19 AM Forum: Politics

Without PA, Biden is an underdog

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


I guess the question is, how likely do you think it is that Biden is going to win PA?

The current NYT polling average for Biden is +6, and even if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, he's +1, which is tight but still more than enough to win.

The latest CNN polling averages have Biden also at +6 in PA.

Biden is +5 in the 538 forecasts.

I mean, he's not an underdog, that's for sure.
Hi James:

Absolutely correct.  According to the polling, Biden wins PA and the election.  I am starting to wonder about the polling though.  There have been several articles about the support and momentum Trump seems to have in PA and elsewhere.  A lot of that is just the press doing what they do I suppose. 


I'm only engaging in friendly chatter at this point.  I believe the polls.  I think Biden wins.  For what it's worth, I am sure seeing a lot more Trump signs than Biden signs here in Blue Colorado.  You live in Texas.  538 has that race at 50.2/48.9 Trump over Biden.  Does that feel right to you?  I am genuinely curious.  

I personally have a real hard time believing that TX is a toss-up, but I am not there.  I have a real hard time believing that Biden is ahead in GA.  Because of this, I am really starting to wonder about those polls.

Jim

November 3, 2020 04:54 AM Forum: Politics

Lichtman's Prediction...

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
"It was utilizing this theory that Lichtman successfully predicted Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 election, being one of the few forecasters to do so rather than favor Hillary Clinton. This did not go unnoticed by Trump, who actually wrote Lichtman a thank-you note on a copy of a Washington Post article about the prediction."
https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/jewish-prof-who-called-every-election-since-1984-predicts-biden-will-win-647699
Hi Rod:

Did you read the last paragraph of the article?  Lichtman was wrong 20 years ago, just ask president Gore.  I wonder what the headline writers were thinking?

Jim

November 3, 2020 05:07 AM Forum: Politics

Lichtman's Prediction...

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Yeah, his model doesn't factor in the supreme court...
Well, of course I disagree, but I have to admit that your post is a high-quality and amusing reply!  smile

November 4, 2020 12:20 AM Forum: Politics

Without PA, Biden is an underdog

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


The two major factors are 1) People don't like Trump, 2) Texas demographics are changing rapidly and becoming bluer. For me personally, it does feel close, but still feels like a Trump win.
Hi James:

It is amazing how fast demographics can change.  Colorado used to be a swing state.  In the Bush years it was a critical swing state.  Now, the polls are showing our last R of national prominence, Senator Cory Gardner, heading for defeat.  The presidential race is not even supposed to be close.  I guess the good thing is that we don't get as many political ads as we used to.  I liked being a swing state though... sad

Jim 

November 4, 2020 01:19 AM Forum: Politics

Without PA, Biden is an underdog

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by James Lacey


Regarding Biden losing PA, I think one of the reasons Biden's chance drop so precipitously if you assume he doesn't win PA is that further implies a lot of other assumptions must be wrong, and he will lose a lot of other neighboring states too. If nothing else, it's going to be an interesting day.
Yes, this is where 538 was more correct last time and the "99% HRC" statisticians were much more wrong.  PA, MI, WI have a lot of similarities.  If the pollsters are wrong in PA they are probably wrong in MI too.  on the other hand PA and AZ are not that linked.  Silver/538 account for these effects in their model, so I like them a lot.

It will be an interesting day for sure.  If Biden wins FL, it is over of course, so we could know the outcome early.  If Trump wins FL and GA by any margin at all, the race is probably a toss-up and we may not know for days.  sad

Jim

November 4, 2020 02:08 AM Forum: Politics

Without PA, Biden is an underdog

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman

Goldman Sachs say we'll know tonight:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/investing/goldman-sachs-wall-street-2020-election/index.html

Then again, I never cared much for Goldman Sach's...
This page from 538 details how quickly the key tallies should be tallied. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

The executive summary is:

Florida fast
Pennsylvania slow.

November 4, 2020 02:16 AM Forum: Politics

Election Day Miscellaneous

Posted By James Brown
Check this out.  "Richards" (ahem, cough cough) are the #1 supporters of Trump.   Coincidence?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/briefing/the-2020-vote-preferences-of-102-common-first-names.html

November 4, 2020 02:25 AM Forum: Politics

Without PA, Biden is an underdog

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Maurice Clark
Hi Jim,

From what I read in the polls, for Trump to win, he has to win all of Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. The other states look out of reach. In all of these he is behind in the polls, although within the margin of error.

While it is entirely possible that he could win all these, it is a stiff asking. All Biden has to do is win one of these.

Could be an "interesting" night! cwy

Maurice
Yep.  Trump almost certainly needs all of those states.  Here is a map with Biden winning just Arizona - Biden victory by 1 EC vote.   Do you really think Trump is going to lose FL, OH, NC or GA?  That would be something.  If he does lose one of those, Trump probably loses several of those and Biden wins easily.

Jim

November 4, 2020 11:27 AM Forum: Politics

Holy Crap It's Close!

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
Dueling it out in BATTLEGROUND states... 
The only thing we know for sure, is that polling is broken, at least in the Trump era. Jim

November 4, 2020 01:57 PM Forum: Politics

QAnon Supporter Wins in Georgia... Figures

Posted By James Brown
Originally Posted by Rod Kaufman
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/03/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-wins/index.html
Looks like Biden has a 50/50 chance in GA though.   Amazingly tight race - as it polled.  J

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