Originally Posted by Darian Rachal
Brian, as more and more states open up, we'll just have to see what happens.
Hi Darian:
Of course this is true, and I appreciate Colorado opening up more restaurant seating and so on in view of our declining numbers. There is one thing that you have posted that I think is untrue. No one
wants to continue wearing masks. At least the truly hypochondriac paranoid types are a tiny group. In my view, masking up in public is a small price to pay to help protect society. It is much easier to swallow than massive shut-downs and economic devastation for example.
Consider this, the yellow trace in the graph below is the actual Louisiana infection rate according to Johns Hopkins. This pattern is common among many states. A small bump (in retrospect) in March-April when we were just getting started with distancing and masks, a bigger bump in the summer and a really big bump in the fall and early winter.
Right now the infection numbers are declining in almost every state, yours included. Probably some combination of partial immunity, vaccinations of the elderly, better care of populations like nursing homes, and of course widespread acceptance of masks, distancing and so on. Good for us.
The red and green lines are my hypothetical projections of how this could go forward. Obviously our goal is the green line, but even if we go full "red line," eventually herd immunity will kick in and the pandemic will subside. Just like the Spanish Flu did 100 years ago. Took two full years though. Also obvious is the recognition that there is a
lot more human and economic suffering between now and the end of the pandemic if we follow the red line. Wearing masks and distancing for a while will keep us closer to the green line. It is a small price to pay, and much better for society in the long run.
I don't like mask snobs either. The "two-masks are better than one mask crowd" are irksome. Those I see wearing masks while driving their own car alone are laughable. But wearing a mask in public indoor spaces or crowded outdoor spaces makes a lot of sense to help us follow the green line out of this.
Jim