Astromart

January 23, 2006 03:32 AM Forum: Investment Discussions

Big Picture -- Reversion to the Mean

Thought this would be fun for the new year, a fresh look at the 30+ year Nazdaq chart. Looks like the 'Decade of Deviations' starting in late 1995 and culminating in the bear market bottom of late 2002 has fairly clearly given way to a resumption on the chart of what appears its more historically "normal" slope which appears to approximate a 12.2% increase per year. It indeed appears that the market has reverted to the mean in this respect and that life has returned to 'normal'.

January 23, 2006 03:49 AM Forum: Investment Discussions

Just a side note

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Just FYI, I'm not in GM anymore. Having crashed out of its 30+ year channel and not being apparently interested in breaking back above the line, with the company levered 20 to 1 I could not stay comfortable holding that one anymore. It has hit the bottom of even the downtrend channel so there should be some healthy bounce here somewhere, and perhaps the latest round of cost cuts will be some kind of catalyst, but the downtrend has broken down through the bottom of the 35-year uptrend and that has rather serious implications, imho. The game has changed, and just fundamentally given the way things are going it is hard for me to see the company surviving in the long term. They might eke out a couple of good years yet, but longer than that -- eh. JMHO of course. Anyone still playing it best of luck to ya. 8)

January 27, 2006 12:05 AM Forum: Religion

Re: OT: Do not call list

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Somebody's having some fun at your expense, Bill! Fortunately this e-rumor is false. Telemarketing to cell phones remains illegal:

http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/cell411.asp

February 5, 2006 03:13 AM Forum: Religion

Re: It's In The Stars!

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Sandy Stubblefield said:
To keep this sort-of on topic, does anyone believe that the placement of the stars have an effect on our lives?

It's possible in the most literal and physical sense -- for example, a star passing nearby perturbing the Oort cloud just enough to send a comet inward that blows the dinosaurs to smithereens and gives rise to humanity.

On another level, our position relative to the other stars in the galaxy could be important: for example, positioned in a relatively sparsely populated area between two spiral arms may be preventing us from being taken over by the great Vroolian Galactic Empire. grin

February 5, 2006 03:01 PM Forum: Politics

This cartoon thing is getting out of hand

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Torching embassies!?! I mean, it's a CARTOON, people. Somebody should tell these guys that they're actually making the cartoonist's point through the violence of their actions.

February 7, 2006 03:34 AM Forum: Politics

Re: Blasphemy

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Jim Babcock said:
Libs continues their blasphemy.

Not that I in my wildest dreams can imagine anyone seeing this as blasphemy, but blasphemy is pretty much protected as free speech anyway as much as praying is, so your horse pretty much fell flat on its face coming out of the gate.

White Europeans are not Jewish...

...Jesus was a real MAN and he was NOT black.

So your point is, I take it, that only Jewish actors should be allowed to play ethnically Jewish roles? Don't you think that's just a little extreme? I'm just trying to understand the rationale here.

February 7, 2006 03:55 PM Forum: Politics

Re: Gentlemen start your SUV's

Posted By Paul Kammueller

Jim Babcock said:
Will global warming help stave off the latest prediction - an Ice Age?

LOL. So now you're pinning your hopes on a single lone Russian scientist? You're really reaching, aren't you? grin

Did I say latest prediction, I remember this prediction in the 1970's. These guys do not have a clue.

In reference to the 1970s, you have to realize when a geologist says an ice age is coming 'soon' he means in the next few thousand years or so -- LOL now people make fun because the planet didn't freeze in the next ten years. This nation is so scientifically illiterate it's just depressing.

The longer-term cooling trend (i.e. working over thousands of years) could still be real -- but is being absolutely overwhelmed by human activity rapidly changing the makeup of the atmosphere.

I'll get off that soapbox, I've given up the global warming battle -- that war is lost, the state of public denial is too strong, it's like terrorism before 9/11. The righties have won and will soon have the overcast hothouse that they are working so hard for.

February 8, 2006 12:26 PM Forum: Politics