Originally Posted by James Brown
I really, truly, want to know what you guys think about Iran. I realize this is not an easy left wing v. right wing “we all hate Trump” kind of event. It is terribly complicated. I suppose all of us would love to see something other than a brutal, murderous theocracy in Iran. So, my reflex is to support the US and Israel. But, is it likely any meaningful change can be made? I would love to see your comments, or read links to authors whom you think have special insight. Jim
Just look at our baserate for success in military misadventures in the Middle East. It's pretty bad, right? Practically zero success for the most part. Based on that, coupled with the incompetence of Trump's cabinet, our chances of any long-term, meaningful success from this action are pretty much nil. Sure, we've set back Iran for a decade, maybe more, but the ruling elite is not just going to roll over and say, "You know what? I guess we will give up the reins of power?" Why? Because they know they will either swing from a noose or end up with their heads not attached to their shoulders anymore. Besides, the ruling elite still has the monopoly on violence inside the country. Until that's broken, the ordinary people of Iran don't stand a chance. If anything, all we've done is probably radicalized the ruling elite even more, and the Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi and Syrian Militias, and others. It will be a miracle if there is not another large-scale Islamic-based terrorist attack in the US in the coming years. And if Iran and other countries have learned anything at this point, it's that you need nuclear weapons so the US won't bomb and or invade you. So, they will only be even more determined to produce a nuclear weapons-grade stockpile and eventually weapons. And if North Korea can do it, anyone can do it, given enough time and persistence. The point is, it might have been better to continue using the economic carrot-and-stick approach to influence Iran's behavior.
So, in short, the most likely outcome is that after this short but intense air campaign, Iran will be greatly weakened militarily, but there will be no meaningful regime change. Meanwhile, the global economy is being shaken by a temporary energy crisis due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, the power vacuum left by Iran's defeat will lead to shifts in regional power that may or may not be good for the West, and Iran and its proxies will become even more radicalized against the West. And in the long run, Iran will rearm and continue trying to acquire nuclear weapons with even more desperation and fervor. Oh, and we will have spent billions upon billions of dollars for this outcome, when health care is not affordable, social programs like SNAP and Medicaid are being cut severely, energy costs are all too high, housing is unaffordable, and the cost of living for everyday Americans is a major concern.
