Originally Posted by James Brown
I think it is too early to declare disaster and defeat, although this is certainly Murphy’s stock in trade. He may be right, but his motivation in writing this is entirely partisan, not analytical.
To the extent Trump had a strategy, it was based in popular uprising in Iran, per his messages at the beginning. Uprising and regime change has happened in Iran before, and could happen again. I think this piece from Al Jezzera Is informative:
“Iran’s next chapter will not be written by foreign powers alone, or by the clerical establishment alone, or by the protest movement alone. It will emerge from the collision of all these forces — internal and external, historical and immediate.
This new Iranian moment is a leap into the unknown: for Iranians most of all, but also for the region and the world that will feel its consequences. Precarious and perplexed, Iran stands at the edge. What lies beyond remains to be seen.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/3/14/the-iranian-moment-a-leap-into-the-unknown
As long as the Iranian security forces, whose main purpose for existence is to prevent a coup, are still around, the Iranian people don't stand a chance. I saw a report the other day that Israel is targeting the checkpoints, patrols, and roadblocks that the Basij, IRGC, and other security forces in Iran used to keep the population in check. Still, it's hard to imagine that those attacks alone will remove their status as the sole arbiter of force, especially given that the state of Iran has a monopoly on weapons and firearms.
As far as regime change goes, so far all we've accomplished is replacing a crazy religiously ideological 88-year-old leader with an even crazier younger one who is no doubt now hell-bent on revenge.
And I believe that no matter how many Navy ships are sent to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran can keep it shut down as long as they like. All it takes is the threat of mines or attacks, and the occasional successful strike with cheap drones, and no tanker will risk it, and no insurer will touch it. Even if Navies wanted to escort tankers, they would be vulnerable to explosive mines. And minesweeping is not easy; it is a dangerous, slow, and highly technical task that involves operating in proximity to explosive sea mines. The US Navy currently has 4 Avenger-class minesweepers in its fleet, which are forward deployed to Japan. I believe they are moving them to the Middle East right now, but that takes time. They have to be carried on another larger ship, as they are not big enough for open-ocean voyages. They also have some Littoral-class ships that can be configured for and used for minesweeping, but it's unclear how many we have and where they are right now. I seriously doubt the Navies of other countries have much better capabilities.
We have no idea how many mines Iran has already deployed, where they are, and what type they are, of which there are dozens and dozens of different kinds. They are cheap to manufacture and can be deployed even by small fishing boats, and Iran probably has thousands and thousands of boats that could be used. I believe the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed as long as Iran wants it closed, and it doesn't matter how many other countries send their Navies to the region. And imagine if "many countries" were to send their ships to the Strait of Hormuz, what an operational and logistical nightmare that would be. The chances for mistakes and unintended consequences would be very high. I don't think any country, much less many, is sending their ships to the Strait of Hormuz without some diplomatic agreement in place with Iran.
I'm pretty sure this war with Iran will prove to be a huge blunder in the long run. There was never a quick or precise victory over Iran possible, and my guess is we will have to claim victory while quietly accepting a strategic defeat. Until then, we will waste more lives, money, and resources on a doomed endeavor.
